Blue Chip ratio among teams that have won national championships.

#77
#77
BigOrangeTrain said:
Clemson was an outlier.
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2013 Florida State had a similar talent profile with 2015 and 2016 Clemson. All 3 were around 50% in the blue chip ratio and they each had a generational QB.

We're in a similar position. If Nico is a #1 overall pick caliber QB then we definitely fit the bill of a team that could bust this trend. Also I think our roster is more talented than the recruiting rankings suggest. Especially our 2022 class which wasn't highly ranked by the services but if you look at that class you'll see a lot of guys exceeded expectations. For example, James Pearce was a composite 4-star rated as the 173rd ranked player in his class by 247. He's now projected to go #1 overall in the draft. Squirrel White was a composite 3-star and Dylan Sampson was a low 4-star outside the top 300. I would argue both of them have performed at a borderline 5-star/high 4-star level as freshman and sophomores. And then you have other composite 3-stars like Jayson Jenkins and Chas Nimrod who have been excelling this off-season and are expected to be big time contributors this fall. The only player in the 2022 class that has not lived up to expectations is Addison Nichols. I would argue that our 2022 class despite being ranked 17th overall by 247Sports is probably better than Texas A&M's class that was ranked 1st overall that year on a freshmen and sophomore year production basis and projected contributions in 2024.

I personally wouldn't trade our roster of anyone else's in the country. I think we're closer to 2013 Florida State and 2015 Clemson on a talent basis than every other team in the country this year.
 
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#78
#78
Adam2014 said:
2026: 100% (haha)
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You never want a 100% blue-chip ratio because the recruiting rankings are not infallible. There are always gonna be 3-stars who end up being better than every 5-star. The goal is to assemble the most talented roster possible. Most of the best players will be correlate with their recruiting rank but some will be busts and others will surprise. You want to limit the busts and identify those who will exceed expectations.

For example, one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 class is Jermias Heard. Physically he looks like a Hall of Fame NFL left tackle. How the recruiting services only rated him a 3-star I'll never know. But he's the type of player that despite being a 3-star you take 10 times outta 10 because his physical tools are so rare that if he hits you're looking at a generational player.
 
#81
#81
Brave Volunteer said:

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This is a very interesting read and kind of a sober reminder of where Tennessee currently sits in the pecking order of team blue chip talent

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

2023: Michigan (54%)
2016: Clemson (53%)
2013: FSU (53%)

And what do all 3 of those teams have in common? Yep, none of them are in the SEC.

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

I say all this just to illustrate that coach Huepel and his staff still have a lot of work to do to get our team talent level to a point where we can seriously compete for championships. If they can swing a top 5 class this year, that would be an excellent start! But I'd say we are still a couple of top 5 recruiting classes away from busting through to that 50-60% barrier.

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won. And 2.) It remains to be seen if the expanded 12 team playoffs has any impact on this.
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Well our percentage would be much higher if we could count the 6-7 transfer guys who were coveted transfers that weren’t necessarily blue chips out of high school. So it’s significant to Tennessee.

OSU has a transfer QB, Bama has receivers, Georgia has receivers and a starting rb, maybe it’s time to start counting transfers.

But 8% point less than the national champ means we’re not that far behind. We have work to do, but not “a lot.”
 
#82
#82
Adam2014 said:
Here are the blue chip rankings per recruiting class over the past few years for Tennessee. The staff has done a wonderful job improving the blue chip ranking per class. IF we can make it to the playoff this year, then I think we can routinely recruit above 60%.

2021: 31.25%
2022: 43.48%
2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%
2025: 57.14% (Add Sanders and Konanbanny and it goes to 60.8%)
2026: 100% (haha)
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And that’s without counting blue chip transfers
 
#83
#83
Rockytop10nessee said:
But 8% point less than the national champ means we’re not that far behind. We have work to do, but not “a lot.”
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Ehhhh, just like Clemson, Michigan doesn't play in the SEC. Other than OSU, what other tough game do they play in the regular season? I wouldn't use Michigan's accomplishment as the measuring stick for us. I'm going to say we need to maintain a team BCR of 60% minimum to have a realistic shot year over year.
 
#84
#84
Pride85 said:
How many times are we going to beat this topic to death. Based on this, we just give up and don't even try to support the team. We can't possibly win the National championship so what is the point of playing the season. It is funny, there are those on here who detest stats, unless it fits some form of storyline. Our coach has gotten the absolute most possible out of his roster in the THREE years he has been here. This is by far the best overall roster he has had. In my opinion, he could be the coach that breaks the trend. It would be interesting to see what the blue chip ratios for UT have been in the 13 year timespan this data represents.
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They will dig every worm in the barn yard!!
 
#85
#85
Brave Volunteer said:
Ehhhh, just like Clemson, Michigan doesn't play in the SEC. Other than OSU, what other tough game do they play in the regular season? I wouldn't use Michigan's accomplishment as the measuring stick for us. I'm going to say we need to maintain a team BCR of 60% minimum to have a realistic shot year over year.
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Okay and for this year we’re at 57%, what you quoted (46%) was last year.

So we’re 3 percentage points off of what you declare as necessary to compete for a Natty.

And gonna climb up after this class. We’ll be above 60% this time next year.

Again, your statement of “we have a lot of work to do” just isn’t true. We have a little work to do.

You can twist statistics to fit your original argument, but you can’t twist what I’m saying.
 
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#86
#86
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
2013 Florida State had a similar talent profile with 2015 and 2016 Clemson. All 3 were around 50% in the blue chip ratio and they each had a generational QB.

We're in a similar position. If Nico is a #1 overall pick caliber QB then we definitely fit the bill of a team that could bust this trend. Also I think our roster is more talented than the recruiting rankings suggest. Especially our 2022 class which wasn't highly ranked by the services but if you look at that class you'll see a lot of guys exceeded expectations. For example, James Pearce was a composite 4-star rated as the 173rd ranked player in his class by 247. He's now projected to go #1 overall in the draft. Squirrel White was a composite 3-star and Dylan Sampson was a low 4-star outside the top 300. I would argue both of them have performed at a borderline 5-star/high 4-star level as freshman and sophomores. And then you have other composite 3-stars like Jayson Jenkins and Chas Nimrod who have been excelling this off-season and are expected to be big time contributors this fall. The only player in the 2022 class that has not lived up to expectations is Addison Nichols. I would argue that our 2022 class despite being ranked 17th overall by 247Sports is probably better than Texas A&M's class that was ranked 1st overall that year on a freshmen and sophomore year production basis and projected contributions in 2024.

I personally wouldn't trade our roster of anyone else's in the country. I think we're closer to 2013 Florida State and 2015 Clemson on a talent basis than every other team in the country this year.
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Cool so Clemson and FSU. Two outliers. You bring up Pearce possibly going #1. That would be great. However he has to go out there and do it. He will likely see more double teams and chip blocks this year. Not saying he can’t do it but it’s gonna be tough.

In the last 20 years what have we had maybe 3 DEs go #1 overall? Clowney, Garrett, and Walker? I hope he goes #1 but I have a feeling by the end it’s gonna go to a QB. Pearce will be a first rounder no doubt. The landscape of college football has changed since FSU. Heck it’s changed from 2018 when Clemson won it. You have to have the elite players. You can’t just scheme your way into a NC.
 
#87
#87
Brave Volunteer said:
Ehhhh, just like Clemson, Michigan doesn't play in the SEC. Other than OSU, what other tough game do they play in the regular season? I wouldn't use Michigan's accomplishment as the measuring stick for us. I'm going to say we need to maintain a team BCR of 60% minimum to have a realistic shot year over year.
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Also, lol at you skipping over 80% of my post (which invalidated pretty much every point you had) and focusing on the one part you could clumsily refute. 😂
 
#89
#89
BigOrangeTrain said:
Cool so Clemson and FSU. Two outliers. You bring up Pearce possibly going #1. That would be great. However he has to go out there and do it. He will likely see more double teams and chip blocks this year. Not saying he can’t do it but it’s gonna be tough.

In the last 20 years what have we had maybe 3 DEs go #1 overall? Clowney, Garrett, and Walker? I hope he goes #1 but I have a feeling by the end it’s gonna go to a QB. Pearce will be a first rounder no doubt. The landscape of college football has changed since FSU. Heck it’s changed from 2018 when Clemson won it. You have to have the elite players. You can’t just scheme your way into a NC.
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Sure but when you have a possible #1 overall pick, an experience OL, potentially the best DL in the whole country, and a generational QB, you’re a tema that could buck the trend.

We’re also 3 percentage points higher than the current national champ, so I feel like we have a shot.
 
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#90
#90
Brave Volunteer said:
Thats a crazy statement. ZERO drop off if Nico gets hurt?? Who is the quality back up at center if Cooper Mays goes down? Who is the quality backup left tackle if Lance Heard gets hurt? Who's STARTING at free safety, let alone being the backup?

Look, I agree we have come a long way but let's not pretend like we aren't a few key injuries away from 7-5.
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Like I said, championship teams shouldn't have any drop off between the 1s and 2s. I was talking about OL, DL, LB ect. But the skilled positions need a quality backup also. Ya know one goes down, insert a quality backup 👍
 
#91
#91
I'm pretty sure we are going to top 46% in the coming years. But for my money bluechip position trumps %. We are getting the best of the best at QB and edge rushers and thatz where the bread is baked
 
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#92
#92
adam.vol said:
Am I missing something or did the article fail to say which rating website that it used to make this study?

Nice write up. I’m unimpressed with the article, not your post. I expect that the AP preseason poll or the coach’s poll would narrow the prediction down even closer than the top 15. When’s the last time someone who wasn’t preseason top 10 won the national title?


Saban is gone and the underdogs will have their day again.
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On 2023, 15 preseason top 25 teams did not finish in the post season top 25. Pre season polls mean little.
 
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#94
#94
BigOrangeTrain said:
Cool so Clemson and FSU. Two outliers. You bring up Pearce possibly going #1. That would be great. However he has to go out there and do it. He will likely see more double teams and chip blocks this year. Not saying he can’t do it but it’s gonna be tough.

In the last 20 years what have we had maybe 3 DEs go #1 overall? Clowney, Garrett, and Walker? I hope he goes #1 but I have a feeling by the end it’s gonna go to a QB. Pearce will be a first rounder no doubt. The landscape of college football has changed since FSU. Heck it’s changed from 2018 when Clemson won it. You have to have the elite players. You can’t just scheme your way into a NC.
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That's why I said "projected". And if anything it's gotten easier to win now than harder. There are 12 spots in the playoffs rather than just 4. So if you slip up early in the season you're not necessarily eliminated. Remember our 2015 team? Imagine they win one of those 4 games we led throughout and somehow squandered. In 2015 it wouldn't have mattered we would still miss out on a 4 team playoff. In 2024 at 9-3 with 3 one possession losses against highly ranked teams, you could find yourself in the 12 team playoff. Imagine Oklahoma or Alabama having to play us again in 2015. Do you think they would've wanted to see us again in 2015?

12 team playoff means that teams that get hot late could win it all like we see in March Madness. Something that couldn't have happened before.
 
#96
#96
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
You never want a 100% blue-chip ratio because the recruiting rankings are not infallible. There are always gonna be 3-stars who end up being better than every 5-star. The goal is to assemble the most talented roster possible. Most of the best players will be correlate with their recruiting rank but some will be busts and others will surprise. You want to limit the busts and identify those who will exceed expectations.

For example, one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 class is Jermias Heard. Physically he looks like a Hall of Fame NFL left tackle. How the recruiting services only rated him a 3-star I'll never know. But he's the type of player that despite being a 3-star you take 10 times outta 10 because his physical tools are so rare that if he hits you're looking at a generational player.
Click to expand...
Well, the D4H 2026 recruiting rankings aren’t available yet so I just went with what I had 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
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#100
#100
Rockytop10nessee said:
Well our percentage would be much higher if we could count the 6-7 transfer guys who were coveted transfers that weren’t necessarily blue chips out of high school. So it’s significant to Tennessee.

OSU has a transfer QB, Bama has receivers, Georgia has receivers and a starting rb, maybe it’s time to start counting transfers.

But 8% point less than the national champ means we’re not that far behind. We have work to do, but not “a lot.”
Click to expand...

The 247 Sports Team Roster rankings will be updated soon for 2024. I like it better because it looks at the current roster of each team Vs just looking at recruiting classes.
 
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