Bracketmatrix 2021-22

Updated seed list…

8. Duke L
———
9. Houston
10. Texas Tech
11. UCLA
12. Wisconsin
———
13. Villanova
14. Illinois
15. Providence
16. Michigan State
———
17. Tennessee
18. Marquette
19. Ohio State
20. Texas W
———
21. Xavier
22. Alabama
23. LSU
24. Connecticut
———
25. Iowa State
26. St. Mary’s
27. USC
28. Indiana
 
The Big 10 having 5 teams as 5 seeds or better is gonna likely mean someone is catching some L’s in that league, they are going to beat each other up and someone is gonna drop you would think.
 
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Lunardi has released his most up-to-date bracket this morning. I know he is not great, but figured these things are still fun to track so I'd put it here. I will at least say that his most recent bracket is more reasonable and believable than the garbage he had last week.

I've linked the full bracket below, but for the TL;DR people here is the portion of the region he projects for us.

MIDWEST REGION

#1 Auburn
#16 UNC Wlimington/ Southern

#8 Seton Hall
#9 Loyola Chicago

#5 Tennessee
#12 North Texas

#4 Houston
#13 New Mexico State.

I don't hate the draw. I'd like to avoid the 5/12 drama again, but Houston has been decimated by injuries and their conference is weak this year. I think it's a winnable game. I'm sure Auburn would not be a fan of drawing Loyola Chicago.

NCAA Bracketology -- Projecting the 2022 March Madness men's field
 
Lunardi has released his most up-to-date bracket this morning. I know he is not great, but figured these things are still fun to track so I'd put it here. I will at least say that his most recent bracket is more reasonable and believable than the garbage he had last week.

I've linked the full bracket below, but for the TL;DR people here is the portion of the region he projects for us.

MIDWEST REGION

#1 Auburn
#16 UNC Wlimington/ Southern

#8 Seton Hall
#9 Loyola Chicago

#5 Tennessee
#12 North Texas

#4 Houston
#13 New Mexico State.

I don't hate the draw. I'd like to avoid the 5/12 drama again, but Houston has been decimated by injuries and their conference is weak this year. I think it's a winnable game. I'm sure Auburn would not be a fan of drawing Loyola Chicago.

NCAA Bracketology -- Projecting the 2022 March Madness men's field
Houston would be the best 4 seed of all-time. What is Joe smoking 😂
 
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Houston would be the best 4 seed of all-time. What is Joe smoking 😂

Houston is good, but I’m not sure they’re THAT good. They lost their two best players to injury, and while they’ve responded well, their best win is Oregon (a bubble team). Their competition hasn’t exactly been stout.
 
Houston is good, but I’m not sure they’re THAT good. They lost their two best players to injury, and while they’ve responded well, they’re best win is Oregon (a bubble team). Their competition hasn’t exactly been stout.
Not a single Top 50 KenPom win if I’m reading it correctly
 
Houston is good, but I’m not sure they’re THAT good. They lost their two best players to injury, and while they’ve responded well, their best win is Oregon (a bubble team). Their competition hasn’t exactly been stout.
All I know is that KenPom has them as the 4th best team and NET has them as the 2nd best 🤷‍♂️
 
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Lunardi has released his most up-to-date bracket this morning. I know he is not great, but figured these things are still fun to track so I'd put it here. I will at least say that his most recent bracket is more reasonable and believable than the garbage he had last week.

I've linked the full bracket below, but for the TL;DR people here is the portion of the region he projects for us.

MIDWEST REGION

#1 Auburn
#16 UNC Wlimington/ Southern

#8 Seton Hall
#9 Loyola Chicago

#5 Tennessee
#12 North Texas

#4 Houston
#13 New Mexico State.

I don't hate the draw. I'd like to avoid the 5/12 drama again, but Houston has been decimated by injuries and their conference is weak this year. I think it's a winnable game. I'm sure Auburn would not be a fan of drawing Loyola Chicago.

NCAA Bracketology -- Projecting the 2022 March Madness men's field
This would suggest we're probably the last seed on his 5 line. OSU gets pittsburgh, marquette can't get milwaukee so they go to pitt too, and then between us and Villanova we get Milwaukee. I disagree that OSU is over us on the seed line.

I'd also be surprised if Providence gets a 3 seed and Houston gets a 4. Houston is #2 in the NET. They have a great chance of not losing another game until the tournament. They lack a defining win this year, but last year the only signature win was against Texas Tech at the start of the season and subsequently lost games to East Carolina and Tulsa. They were still a 2 seed. I think they're a 3 seed at worst. Providence is 26th in the NET. They'd probably be the most overseeded team in the tournament relative to their NET ranking.
 
And the only two losses were at the buzzer against Wisconsin and Alabama by a combined 3 points.
 
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All I know is that KenPom has them as the 4th best team and NET has them as the 2nd best 🤷‍♂️

Well, either way, I wouldn't bee that worried about playing them. I think we'd be far better prepared than they would for tournament play, and I do think losing your two best players in December (after the close game against Wisc) will eventually catch up to them.
 
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Correct. Undefeated in conference play, but is that anything to brag about considering that conference is a steaming pile of trash?

It bears repeating that this year's American is projected to be a one-bid conference. Houston is obviously much better than a SWAC team, but gone are the days when the AAC was a great (let alone the best) mid-major conference.
 
KenPom views Tennessee as the 13th best team, while the NET views us as the 11th best. If the season ended right now we deserve to be a 3 seed, considering our only losses have been Quadrant 1. Duke drops to 11th in KenPom and 13th in NET, yet they are a 2 seed in that trash conference in Joe’s eyes? Villanova deserves a 2 seed more than Duke, yet they are a 5 seed. He is way off.
 
Well, either way, I wouldn't bee that worried about playing them. I think we'd be far better prepared than they would for tournament play, and I do think losing your two best players in December (after the close game against Wisc) will eventually catch up to them.
I’m not necessarily worried about playing them. I think we have proven we can play with any team in the country. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country and we beat them. It’s more of the fact that Joe is way off on his seedings, slotting teams 2 or 3 seed lines below where they should be.
 
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KenPom views Tennessee as the 13th best team, while the NET views us as the 11th best. If the season ended right now we deserve to be a 3 seed, considering our only losses have been Quadrant 1. Duke drops to 11th in KenPom and 13th in NET, yet they are a 2 seed in that trash conference in Joe’s eyes? Villanova deserves a 2 seed more than Duke, yet they are a 5 seed. He is way off.
The teams aren’t seeded throughout the season based strictly on KenPom and NET rankings. I don’t believe we deserve a 3 seed quite yet, but I do think we’re at least a 4. Also, I will say that Duke has worse losses compared to Nova but Nova just got swept by Marquette and has 6 losses on the season. All of Nova’s losses are Q1 losses just like us and their best wins are vs Xavier (x2), Seton Hall, and UConn. Vols and Villanova are pretty similar from a resume perspective so by that logic, we should be ranked ahead of Duke as well. That just isn’t the case.
 
The teams aren’t seeded throughout the season based strictly on KenPom and NET rankings. I don’t believe we deserve a 3 seed quite yet, but I do think we’re at least a 4. Also, I will say that Duke has worse losses compared to Nova but Nova just got swept by Marquette and has 6 losses on the season. All of Nova’s losses are Q1 losses just like us and their best wins are vs Xavier (x2), Seton Hall, and UConn. Vols and Villanova are pretty similar from a resume perspective so by that logic, we should be ranked ahead of Duke as well. That just isn’t the case.
I’m saying Duke, Tennessee, and Villanova should be a 3 seed right now. Villanova shouldn’t be a 2 seed, I’m simply saying they deserve it more than Duke. Marquette, Xavier, and UConn are all quality teams, better than any team the ACC has outside of Duke at the moment.
 
KenPom views Tennessee as the 13th best team, while the NET views us as the 11th best. If the season ended right now we deserve to be a 3 seed, considering our only losses have been Quadrant 1. Duke drops to 11th in KenPom and 13th in NET, yet they are a 2 seed in that trash conference in Joe’s eyes? Villanova deserves a 2 seed more than Duke, yet they are a 5 seed. He is way off.
Here's a ranking of bracketologists based on accuracy. You have to scroll down a little ways to find "Joey Brackets"
The Bracket Project - Ranking the Bracketologists
 
I think most of these prognosticators will continue with legacy thinking since the NET hasn't been implented long enough to get a true sense of how much weight the committee puts in it. Either it's all for show, or they actually took the trouble to develop it because they wanted a metric which they could rely on. If last year is the guide, the average movement in any direction for at-large quality teams last year was just over 5. If they were to move Tennessee down 5 spots from their NET ranking, that would still put them at 16 and a 4 seed. The highest ranked 5 seed in the NET last year was.... us at 13th.
 
I think most of these prognosticators will continue with legacy thinking since the NET hasn't been implented long enough to get a true sense of how much weight the committee puts in it. Either it's all for show, or they actually took the trouble to develop it because they wanted a metric which they could rely on. If last year is the guide, the average movement in any direction for at-large quality teams last year was just over 5. If they were to move Tennessee down 5 spots from their NET ranking, that would still put them at 16 and a 4 seed. The highest ranked 5 seed in the NET last year was.... us at 13th.

So, you’re telling me we are going to be a 5-seed? 😂
 
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