Bracketology Update, 3/2

#51
#51
SC is in. LSU is obviously in. UT SHOULD be in barring a complete collapse (knock on wood). The UK-UF game Saturday could be a "play out" game. And it's a long shot but don't look now, Auburn is 19-10, 8-6... if they do some damage in the SECT.... could be the 5th.
 
#52
#52
BigOrange3 said:
SC is in. LSU is obviously in. UT SHOULD be in barring a complete collapse (knock on wood). The UK-UF game Saturday could be a "play out" game. And it's a long shot but don't look now, Auburn is 19-10, 8-6... if they do some damage in the SECT.... could be the 5th.
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Auburn has zero shot at an at large bid.
 
#53
#53
BigOrange3 said:
SC is in. LSU is obviously in. UT SHOULD be in barring a complete collapse (knock on wood). The UK-UF game Saturday could be a "play out" game. And it's a long shot but don't look now, Auburn is 19-10, 8-6... if they do some damage in the SECT.... could be the 5th.
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TN is in over USC, TN and LSU are the only locks as of now, but if USC wins against GA this weekend they will be in too, no matter what they do Thursday or in the tourney.

FL and KY need to win their last two games and do something in the tourney IMO. That will give one of them the 4th and last bid
 
#55
#55
hatvol96 said:
Auburn has zero shot at an at large bid.
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Like i said "long shot". they're @Bama and have LSU at home this week. if they can somehow pull off the double, win a game or 2 in the sect.... u can no longer say zero shot. Doubtful... but who thought UGA would get in last year.:birgits_giggle:
 
#56
#56
BigOrange3 said:
Like i said "long shot". they're @Bama and have LSU at home this week. if they can somehow pull off the double, win a game or 2 in the sect.... u can no longer say zero shot. Doubtful... but who thought UGA would get in last year.:birgits_giggle:
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Georgia didn't get an at large bid.
 
#57
#57
BigOrange3 said:
Like i said "long shot". they're @Bama and have LSU at home this week. if they can somehow pull off the double, win a game or 2 in the sect.... u can no longer say zero shot. Doubtful... but who thought UGA would get in last year.:birgits_giggle:
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The only way Auburn gets in is the same way UGA did - an auto bid.
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#61
#61
As long as South Carolina splits their last two conference games, I would be amazed if they didn't make the field. They would have a 10-6 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. If they don't get in, Florida and Kentucky don't get in, and the SEC is a two-bid league this year, and heads will roll. (of course, I think it's safe to say that if South Carolina beats UT Thursday night, they're in.)
 
#62
#62
The way I look at it we were a one team conference (Kentucky) until Florida's late run. The rest of the college basketball world calls a football conference and every year we end up with a couple sleepers and sometimes in the final four.:cool2:
 
#65
#65
Cartervol said:
The league is terrible this year. If they get four bids that will be generous.
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I disagree. Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina should get the bids. I think Florida is heavily overrated, and any one of the above mentioned could make a run if they get hot.
 
#67
#67
vtvol98 said:
I'd rather the Vols be a 7 seed than a 5. 5's usually get upset by twelves most years.
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12's have a good record (slightly less than 50%)because that is usually a low-major conference winnner (think davidson, gw) that really plays good team ball and will expose a big boy not playing their 'a' game. a 6 or 7 would be a good seed - matched up against one of the last high majors to make the at-large field. also, puts you on the 2,3 side of the draw.
 
#68
#68
indianacurly said:
12's have a good record (slightly less than 50%)because that is usually a low-major conference winnner (think davidson, gw) that really plays good team ball and will expose a big boy not playing their 'a' game. a 6 or 7 would be a good seed - matched up against one of the last high majors to make the at-large field. also, puts you on the 2,3 side of the draw.
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Uh, you're wrong on the % basis. And we want the best seed possible. I'll give you the facst historically. 12 seed has 32% chance of winning. 11 seed has 30% chance. 10 seed has 39% chance. 9 seed has 55% chance (yes more likely the lower seed wins). Obviously, much is dictated by matchups, but to hope for a lower seed (other than getting out of 8/9 range) is not that smart.
 
#69
#69
And I'd rather play a 4 seed than a 2/3 seed in the second round (if we make it that far).
 
#70
#70
hatvol96 said:
Sure, they're going to make the NCAA Tournament.
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For the fourth year in a row no less. Interesting to note that in 2008 there were only 13 teams that had four-year tournament streaks. We are rising up from mediocrity in basketball. The important question is whether this coaching staff can take us from good to great. Obviously, there is disagreement on this board on that topic.
 
#71
#71
Oldblood said:
Uh, you're wrong on the % basis. And we want the best seed possible. I'll give you the facst historically. 12 seed has 32% chance of winning. 11 seed has 30% chance. 10 seed has 39% chance. 9 seed has 55% chance (yes more likely the lower seed wins). Obviously, much is dictated by matchups, but to hope for a lower seed (other than getting out of 8/9 range) is not that smart.
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obviously, i'm not hoping for a 6 or 7 when a 4 or 5 could be had. i'm looking at the nightmare of having unc in the 2nd game should we survive the first.
 
#72
#72
indianacurly said:
obviously, i'm not hoping for a 6 or 7 when a 4 or 5 could be had. i'm looking at the nightmare of having unc in the 2nd game should we survive the first.
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The only way we draw UNC in the second game is with an 8/9 seed. Are you talking about the 3rd game?
 
#73
#73
hatvol96 said:
Auburn has zero shot at an at large bid.
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I don't know that zero would be that accurate. They've won 6 out of 7. If they should win their final 2 games and at least 1 game in the SEC Tourney, they'll be 8-2 in their last 10 games (21-11, 10-6) including wins over Tennessee and LSU. That being said, its very unlikely they'll win 3 of 4 games upcoming, but its not impossible.
 
#74
#74
yes, i'm talking about avoiding the 8 or 9 seed (and looking forward to the 3rd game with the 6/7 versus the 4/5). statistically, it's better to have a 4 or 6 seed (i erroneously included 7 as favorable before looking up the stats). by seed, % of teams that advance to sweet sixteen:

1 - 87%
2 - 63%
3 - 48%
4 - 44%
5 - 37%
6 - 38%
7 - 19%
8 - 10%
9 - 3% (despite the 55% chance of getting past the 8)
 
#75
#75
allvol said:
I don't know that zero would be that accurate. They've won 6 out of 7. If they should win their final 2 games and at least 1 game in the SEC Tourney, they'll be 8-2 in their last 10 games (21-11, 10-6) including wins over Tennessee and LSU. That being said, its very unlikely they'll win 3 of 4 games upcoming, but its not impossible.
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there is no value to winning games in the SEC, especially in the West.
 
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