Bushs Speech on Immigration

[CSpindizzy]

Back on topic, some of the tight immigration policy folks are saying this election in CA shows Bush's policy is wrong. I beg to differ. In a district that is on the US border and a 20%+ GOP advantage, the GOP candidate only got 49%, not even a majority. The 'evil amnesty' candidate got 45%. This is hardly a message Bush and others on his side of the issue need to be concerned about. If the border region votes 45% for amnesty, I'd say the Tancredos of the country should be a little concerned.

 

[volinbham]

Back on topic, some of the tight immigration policy folks are saying this election in CA shows Bush's policy is wrong. I beg to differ. In a district that is on the US border and a 20%+ GOP advantage, the GOP candidate only got 49%, not even a majority. The 'evil amnesty' candidate got 45%. This is hardly a message Bush and others on his side of the issue need to be concerned about. If the border region votes 45% for amnesty, I'd say the Tancredos of the country should be a little concerned.

Yep. The only caveat to add is that the Duke Cunningham hangover probably turned off some that would otherwise vote for the republican.

On the other hand, after what the Dem candidate seemed to say about illegals voting or at least helping her campaign you would think she would have gotten killed!

 

[CSpindizzy]

Bilbray has already been a Congressman in this area. Essentially he was going for his old seat. Busby was MUCH lesser known. Bilbray won by distancing himslef from Bush and Duke. But when you look at the numbers, Bilbray still didn't get 50% with a tighter control of borders agenda. Bilbray's chief issue, enough to get on his campaign signs, was immigration. In a 2/3 GOP district on the border, you'd seriously think the difference would have been greater. Looking at the numbers, I'd say that it looks like a lot of GOP voters stayed home. If THIS is the trend, GOP strategists have a LOT to be concerned about for November.

As much as Newt, Rush, and everyone else tries to spin this, it is not good for the GOP and REALLY not good for the White House.

 

[volinbham]

There was a 3rd candidate that was to the right of Bilbray and was backed by the minutemen. He got 4% of the vote. Add that number in and you get 53% - Bush carried the district in 2004 with 55%. Not much difference. Add in the Duke Cunningham scandal and Bilbray's (former congressman in a different district not this one) ties to lobbyists and it looks like a case of "no good choices".

Both sides are spinning it but I wouldn't read that much into this.