I think we could have beaten about 2/3 of the 12 teams. Look at vaunted Oregon. They are doing no better than we did, worse actually, and they are in far better circumstances, a neutral field and not in the cold (tho less likely to affect the ducks). AND we had a lot of key players out.
We got the crappiest draw out there against an OSU team that has a loaded roster and was motivated to keep their coach.
I dont think we were ready to win it all but with a different draw, we absolutely would have gone deeper, quite possibly to the semis.