Not over Tennessee. I feel pretty good about that.
Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.
Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....
1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.
2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.
3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.
4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.
5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.
I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.
Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.
