Chance Each Playoff Contender Loses Another Game (FPI)

#54
#54
Continuing to pour over the stats, Utah has the best chance to win out of the PAC 12 teams (despite being a slight underdog to Oregon)
 
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#55
#55
zaqhhh said:
Per ESPN as of 11/6

Tennessee 23%
Alabama 38%
UGA 39%
OSU 46%
Clemson 64%
Michigan 79%
Oregon 84%
USC 85%
UCLA 89%
LSU 91%
TCU 97%
OM 98%

I haven't seen this posted here, but really illustrates just how great of a situation we are in. If we win out, there is practically no question that we are in.

GBO! Playoff Bound!
Click to expand...
We make it to the 3 spot if we win out!
 
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#58
#58
The primary reason for a "playoff" is for TV ratings. Would west coast folks watch a rematch between UT/UGA - probably not. E$PN hated the BCS as it nearly always favored SEC schools (which isn't their favorite conference). They wanted to widen the scope of possibilities - hence the top 4 in a playoff. This also helps TV revenue in that there are now 3 games instead of the 1 BCS national title game.

You can argue against the rating system of the BCS all you want. But presently there are polls that are used to predict the final 4 along with strength of schedule. This was/is very similar to the BCS "computer rankings" (as E$PN used to call it creating an apatite for something else).

So, yes, I can see where UT gets passed up by a west coast team or an ACC team to widen the television viewing audience - which obviously leads to more advertising $.
 
#59
#59
tOSU, Mich and TCU schedules are on our side...We just need to take care of business in the next 3 weeks.
 
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#60
#60
zaqhhh said:
Missed Alabama at first, but anyone counting them out actually should look again. They aren't totally gone either. As much as I hate to say it.
Click to expand...
Their only real way in is to win the SEC... and LSU has to lose to both Arkansas and A&M for that to happen and Bama would have to win out. OM has to win out to get in and hope for an LSU loss to get to the CG.

For all intents and purposes, Bama is out unless EVERYONE in the hunt for that 4th spot has two losses
 
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#62
#62
UT is not in control of its playoff destiny. The Vols need to win out. The Vols probably need style points as well.

For UT to get in, UGA can't lose the CG.

Either Michigan or tOSU will have at least one loss. It would likely knock UT out if Michigan lost a game and then beat tOSU before winning the Big10. In that scenario, they'd probably both get in.

The Pac12 can produce a 1 loss team that would get in ahead of UT. OTOH, it seems just as likely that no one will have less than 2 losses. USC and UCLA play each other. Oregon has Oregon State, UW, and Utah left and would still have to win the championship game. USC has a lay up with Colorado but then has UCLA and Notre Dame. If UCLA can beat USC... they have the clearest path otherwise with Arizona and Cal. The problem for UT is that those teams get a chance to play each other to get a quality win that jumps them in the rankings.

UT really needs Texas to beat TCU. Baylor might be able to do it but Iowa State isn't very good this year. A one loss TCU team would still be the Big 12 champion and could that might matter.

The ACC really should be out of the running right now... but who knows what would happen with a one loss UNC team?
 
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#65
#65
sjt18 said:
UT is not in control of its playoff destiny. The Vols need to win out. The Vols probably need style points as well.

For UT to get in, UGA can't lose the CG.

Either Michigan or tOSU will have at least one loss. It would likely knock UT out if Michigan lost a game and then beat tOSU before winning the Big10. In that scenario, they'd probably both get in.

The Pac12 can produce a 1 loss team that would get in ahead of UT. OTOH, it seems just as likely that no one will have less than 2 losses. USC and UCLA play each other. Oregon has Oregon State, UW, and Utah left and would still have to win the championship game. USC has a lay up with Colorado but then has UCLA and Notre Dame. If UCLA can beat USC... they have the clearest path otherwise with Arizona and Cal. The problem for UT is that those teams get a chance to play each other to get a quality win that jumps them in the rankings.

UT really needs Texas to beat TCU. Baylor might be able to do it but Iowa State isn't very good this year. A one loss TCU team would still be the Big 12 champion and could that might matter.

The ACC really should be out of the running right now... but who knows what would happen with a one loss UNC team?
Click to expand...

Chance UGA loses in SECCG- ~20%

Chance Michigan loses a game then beats OSU and wins Big 10- Less than 5%

Chance TCU goes undefeated- 3%

And as you mention the PAC 12 stands a great chance to rip itself a part in these final weeks


So while we don't control our destiny per say, we virtually do.
 
#70
#70
zaqhhh said:
Per ESPN as of 11/6

Tennessee 23%
Alabama 38%
UGA 39%
OSU 46%
Clemson 64%
Michigan 79%
Utah 80%
Oregon 84%
USC 85%
UCLA 89%
UNC 90%
LSU 91%
TCU 97%
OM 98%

I haven't seen this posted here, but really illustrates just how great of a situation we are in. If we win out, there is practically no question that we are in.

GBO! Playoff Bound!
Click to expand...
 

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#71
#71
If Bama does sneak in with 2 losses, they would have been handed another natty. No way Saban takes that gift and goes one and done and has to explain why they deserved it. He will take it to the bank if they somehow get in the Final 4.
 
#74
#74
There will be 5 SEC teams ranked in the top 10 Tuesday. We will likely be ranked 4th and keep that spot until OSU- Michigan play. Loser of that game will likely be 4th with Vols to 3rd.

It will be SEC vs B10 in the playoffs.
 
#75
#75
Don’t have to worry about Michigan and Ohio State remaining undefeated since Ohio State plays Michigan in the regular season in the Horse Shoe.

Most likely the LSU Tigers play the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers defeated the Bulldogs.
The LSU Tigers have been playing great after the Volunteers streamrolled the Tigers.
 
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