Chance Each Playoff Contender Loses Another Game (FPI)

[SockeyeVol]

After looking at it all, I think our main threat comes from a 1-loss Pac-12 champion:

Here's the list of 0- or 1-loss teams not named GA or OH St., along with the FPI of their remaining opponents.

1. Ole Miss (8-1). FPI = 14.3. Remaining opponent FPI of 44.7 (Bama, Arkansas, Miss St.). Ouch.
2. TCU - (9-0). FPI = 13.5. Remaining opponent FPI of 41.6 (Texas, Baylor, Iowa St.). Ouch.
3. Michigan (9-0). FPI = 23.5. Remaining Opp FPI of 36.1 (NEB, IL, OSU).
4. Oregon (8-1). FPI = 15.7. Remaining Opp FPI of 30.7 (WA, Utah, Ore St.). Tough schedule.
5. USC (8-1). FPI = 13.9. Remaining Opp FPI of 23.8 (UCLA, Notre Dame, misc). Tough schedule.
6. Clemson (8-1). FPI = 17.0. Remaining Opp FPI of 13.7 (Lou, Miami, SC).
7. Tennessee (8-1). FPI = 21.3. Remaining Opp FPI of -1.4 (Mizzou, SC, Vandy). Easiest remaining schedule of everyone.

Summary thoughts:

• Ole Miss and TCU will each lose once more and be out.
• Clemson can win out and still be left out of Top 4.
• A 1-loss Michigan (or OSU) team will still have a really high FPI/strength of schedule.
• Tennessee can win out, but their strength of schedule is going to really drop now.
• USC and OR each losing once more REALLY helps us.
• There are still some potential "Black Swan" events that could really help us - Michigan loses to IL (and then OSU), for example.

I think our main threat comes from 2 of USC, Oregon, or Michigan ending with one loss. Each of these could argue for a stronger recent schedule and get put at #4 with just one loss.

My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.

 

[zaqhhh]

God the battered Vol syndrome in this thread is potent. No UT does not need a lot to happen, I'd say it would take a mini miracle for us to NOT get in.

And for reference, I am regarded as a borderline Negavol on VN

 

[chattaboogie]

Yes, they would get in with 2 losses, in your scenario. LSU would become the SEC champion and advance to the playoffs.

No way. Not over an 11-1 Tennessee with only loss to UGA at home and a 27 point beat down in Death Valley not too long ago.

 

[JMSqb11]

No way. Not over an 11-1 Tennessee with only loss to UGA at home and a 27 point beat down in Death Valley not too long ago.

I’m not sure why the choice would have to be between 11-2 LSU or 11-1 Tennessee. I don’t think it would be that far fetched for both to be in with Georgia if TCU dropped a game….

 

[chattaboogie]

I’m not sure why the choice would have to be between 11-2 LSU or 11-1 Tennessee. I don’t think it would be that far fetched for both to be in with Georgia if TCU dropped a game….

I can’t see the committee taking a third sec team with two losses over the likely 1 loss teams from other conferences that will be available. That would draw an uproar

 

[zaqhhh]

I’m not sure why the choice would have to be between 11-2 LSU or 11-1 Tennessee. I don’t think it would be that far fetched for both to be in with Georgia if TCU dropped a game….

TCU has a better shot at losing 2 games than going undefeated so you are right on

 

[orchidvol]

I think Tennessee gets left out too. I think it will be Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State in that order.

Oregon's schedule sucks and I really don't see the committee giving the pedestrian Big 10 two spots. I really think Tennessee has a good shot as long as they win the remaining games in convincing fashion.

 

[Pappy]

Another interesting factor is UNC has more of a chance to go undefeated from here on out than 3 of these teams (about 10%)

So if anyone wants a wildcard long shot to root for, it is them lol

NEVER Naf C’lina

 

[Unconditional Surrender]

Oregon's schedule sucks and I really don't see the committee giving the pedestrian Big 10 two spots. I really think Tennessee has a good shot as long as they win the remaining games in convincing fashion..

You: a rational human being who can see that the SEC is faster, bigger, better.
The committee: an irrational political body that is sick of the SEC.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

The only way Bama could get back in is by beating Georgia and LSU has to lose to Arkansas and Texas A&M for that to happen.

Yeah, thank goodness we won't have to see Alabama in the National Championship game this year. I know anything can happen, but I just don't see any of them actually happening. Maybe Saban will finally decide to retire with his $ and disappear into the sunset.

 

[Illinoisvolfan2]

What if LSU ends up winning the west and the SECCG? Could they get in with 2 losses??

 

[volfan102455]

You: a rational human being who can see that the SEC is faster, bigger, better.
The committee: an irrational political body that is sick of the SEC.

I think they could be sick of Bama and UGA. Maybe that is why there has been so much excitement around Tennessee - a change of the guard.

 

[Unconditional Surrender]

I think they could be sick of Bama and UGA. Maybe that is why there has been so much excitement around Tennessee - a change of the guard.

Sure. But when push comes to shove, and it's Tennessee against the midwest and west coast elite with resumes that are somewhat close, they are snubbing us.

 

[ABINGDON VOL FAN]

Less than 0. The dynasty is over.

Dynasty is not over if they still have Saban and are ranking in top 3 classes.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

I disagree, there is still a slim path to the SEC Title game. Beyond that, if you look at the chance for losses on these other teams to pile up, it isn't a foregone conclusion. It is less than 10%, probably less than 5%, but not 0

LSU has beaten Ole Miss and Bama. They would have to lose to Arky ( who just got waxed by Liberty) and TAMU ( who just got beat by UF). That’s not happening. LSU has won the SECW. There is no path for Bama.

 

[Unconditional Surrender]

Dynasty is not over if they still have Saban and are ranking in top 3 classes.

BY is the best QB they've ever had, and they have come back to the pack. What's it going to look like when he is gone? 9-3 seasons a comin'.

 

[zaqhhh]

LSU has beaten Ole Miss and Bama. They would have to lose to Arky ( who just got waxed by Liberty) and TAMU ( who just got beat by UF). That’s not happening. LSU has won the SECW. There is no path for Bama.

There is an eternity between now and CFP selection day. I think there are far more losses upcoming than we expect for the T1 contenders. Again, not saying by any means they are a favorite. I think realistically they might have a 3% shot. But that isn't negligible either

 

[LTVol]

The only way Bama could get back in is by beating Georgia and LSU has to lose to Arkansas and Texas A&M for that to happen.

Plus Ole Miss would also have to lose to Bama

 

[VolForLife83]

How do they Figure Georgia is that likely to lose

I'm guessing SECCG

 

[Other_Guy]

What if LSU beats UGA in the SECCG? Does a 2 loss LSU team get in???

1 loss Vols sure dont

 

[VOLnVANDYland]

It's fairly moot though. Georgia will beat LSU as bad as they beat us.

Worse

 

[Manchester Vol]

How do they Figure Georgia is that likely to lose

Ga plays a ranked team in the last 3, we do not.

Statistics

 

[iuvol]

No Alabama is gone. There is a 0% chance they will make it.

agreed, I can't see any 2 loss team making it with all these one loss teams there. Alabama has the face that UGA is a lock for the final 4 and UT seems to be (if they win out) I see no way 3 SEC teams make it to the playoffs

 

[iuvol]

Ga plays a ranked team in the last 3, we do not.

Statistics

They also play the SEC championship game

 

[Manchester Vol]

What if LSU ends up winning the west and the SECCG? Could they get in with 2 losses??

Yes