AM64
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Feb 11, 2016
- Messages
- 28,590
- Likes
- 42,429
Do they have sufficient capacity to ferry back and forth tens of thousands of troops and supplies?
It's conceivable that China could try to create a blockade against Taiwan, which would be quite problematic.
But a full-scale invasion? That's an entirely different ballgame.
If you look at history, the biggest problem for an army (other than logistics) is accessibility to the enemy. Hitler rolled across wide open spaces with tanks and minimal losses because that with accompanying airpower overwhelmed the defenders; however, our landing invasions in the Pacific and Europe were always costly.
It's inevitably like pouring something into a funnel with the narrow end being what the invading force brings to meet the enemy. In nuclear terms it's a lack of critical mass - just feeding troops into a meat grinder while their numbers because of a geographic obstacle cannot allow them to meet the opposing force with enough oomph to overwhelm them. The invader may have the numbers but not the ability to have a big enough force in place at any time to displace the defender. The Chinese would have to destroy Taiwan's shore and air defenses before trying to land troops; by then you'd have to believe that what China wants on Taiwan would be destroyed, so the millions of waiting troops would be largely useless.