Yeah, it’s popped up in the news here and there. I remember reading an in-depth piece on wired I think a year or two ago but can’t find it. Our military has had similar projects at least as far back as Palladium in the early Cold War. UAPs have probably become more of a problem in recent years with increasingly cheap drone technology.
It seems these objects are mostly probing radar defenses. They’re different sizes, shapes, speed, altitudes, etc. We can’t just shoot them all down, because that will still give the enemy the data they seek. So we have to be selective about when and where we shoot them, try and feed them false information, etc. I’m sure it’s an intelligence dance of sorts that’s gone on for a long time.
I think PKT gave the obvious answer to my question. The reason it’s a big deal now is because China’s yuge balloon could be spotted with the naked eye, made the news, and went viral. It was sort of public knowledge before but now it’s front-page news so officials have to address it. But that begs the follow up question: why was that balloon so big and at such low altitude that it could be spotted? That’s not an effective way to spy or test radar capabilities. Was it a technical error? Or is it a troll of sorts?
Given that balloons are more risky than high-tech satellites, there must be some worthwhile tradeoffs in the Chinese's minds. The Chinese could have had these goals in mind:
1) Test our capacity to detect these balloons in real time. Satellites and radar have the technological ability, but capability does not equal proficiency. Think software filters used to process incoming radar data to efficiently highlight expected threats. In years past, balloons were not our prime targeting calibration standard.
2) Test our response to air incursions.
3) SIGINT; both collection and jamming capabilities.
4) Ground penetrating image technology. Satellites are great for surface imaging, but the cool stuff is underground or under hangers.
5) MASINT over sensitive US military instillations might reveal hidden sensitive areas/objects. They can use the rest of their intelligence apparatus to investigate those areas once identified.
6) Visuals imaging. Satellites are great for this and much lower risk. However, satellites are predictable and allow for the US to move sensitive objects when they are not flying overhead. Only being 60K feet away also helps.
From a counterintelligence perspective, the US could have had these goals in mind:
1) Muddy the waters for the Chinese on our radar and satellite technology.
2) Muddy the waters for the Chinese our response to air incursions. Normally, it is the Russians testing from their angle of attack.
3) SIGINT; collection and jamming capabilities for both sides. From our side, Collection from the balloon to their satellite and subsequent encryption methods/hacking potential. Both collecting and jamming capabilities can increase with a known target coming across land versus just in an aircraft/satellite. From their side, their methods, targets, and effectiveness/our ability to detect their attempts.
4) Honeypotting. With a known or likely flight path, our military/intelligence agencies can set up fake objects to throw off the Chinese analysts. Alternatively, we could flash deterrence technology in a controlled manner (on our terms).
5) Gain insight into what areas/installations within the US they prioritize for intelligence collection.
Regardless, assuming the Chinese were spying and the US was running a counterintelligence operation, the missions on both sides became compromised once the balloon was spotted by the general public. Such is the nature of the intelligence cat and mouse games.