Climate Change Report

Yeah if I remember right wasn’t Archimedes from up around Scott Co? 🤔

😂

Which of these observable facts would Archimedes disagree with? I ask this sincerely. Not as a troll.

1) Thermal expansion occurs as oceans get warmer.

2) Grounded ice sheets like Greenland are melting and adding water to the system.

3) Glacial ice is melting and adding water to the system.
 
Also, in my school book (and I admit it has been a while) Archimedes' principle dealt with weight (which is irrelevant to this discussion).

You seem to be saying it addresses volume (which would be highly relevant), but it doesn't.
 
Ah, the zombie myth of global cooling. It’s been addressed at least a dozen times on this site alone. But it’s been a while, and you seem like a good-faith poster, so I will recap again.

Most often those presenting this myth will point to a Time or Newsweek article as evidence. About half of these magazine articles were taken completely out of context and don’t even discuss climate. Annoying and typical, but beside the point. The weight of scientific literature was not accurately reflected by this media. Yes, a small number of papers did in fact predict global cooling. Specifically, a review of the literature found that between 1965 and 1980, a total of 6 papers predicted cooling while 42 predicted warming.

It’s interesting to take a moment to discuss why anyone was predicting global cooling. If you look at the modern temperature record, I’m sure you’ll notice a slight cooling period that lasted from about 1945 to 1975. This was a result of the post WW2 boom in sulfate aerosol emissions, which were stabilized shortly following the Clean Air Act in 1970. Aerosols effectively reflect sunlight, causing cooling. With this in mind, it’s actually very impressive that a significant majority of climate scientists predicted that the warming from the greenhouse effect would overtake aerosol cooling, especially on the heels of three decades of global cooling.

I’m not even going to bother with the “They changed the name from global warming to climate change” nonsense… maybe next time

Despite what some would have you believe, the predictions and projections of climate scientists (read: not Al Gore) have been remarkably accurate and consistent over the years. Estimates of climate sensitivity have hovered right around 3C per doubling of %CO2 all throughout the IPCC reports, throughout Hansen’s testimonies in the 80s, in the rudimentary climate models of the 70s, and all the way back to Arrhenius’ (admittedly lucky) estimate in the late 1800s. Even Exxon’s own climate scientists predicted today’s temperature and CO2 concentrations to a high degree of accuracy, 30 years ago. I encourage you to look it up.


The discussion over whether climate change is real and caused by humans is a fake debate. There are always minutiae to hash out but the big picture is clear. I know you folk don’t like to hear it, I’m sorry, but it really is an established scientific fact, and has been for decades. The discussion needs to be, what do we do about it?
You first part about the magazines is exactly what I am saying. The message hasnt been consistent and to the public perception is reality. Doesnt help that you have people in Congress giving us 12 or 11 years. The scientific community may be right but as far as the general public knows there are a bunch of loons yelling wolf. Again, how it is sold. And I never see the scientific community attacking the Al Gores out there crying wolf. Speaks of complicity to me.

I dont find it impressive at all that scientists predicted the warming after the cooling as you described. They knew the reflectivity would stabilize, based on your 70 vs 75 dates. So there is only one way for the temps to go. Look at any graph of what the temps have done. There are no plateaus. It's either going up or down.

And nothing you have presented does anything to address actual heat production on this planet. Again there is a whole side of the equation that never gets addressed as far as I have seen it. CO2 is just insulation. Doesnt produce any heat. So going back to my point of reductions only getting us so far removing CO2 to non human levels wont fix it. We are generating more and more heat, eventually things will get hot. Even if we arent producing any CO2 whatsoever beyond breathing.

If the science is agreed, and I am not arguing it as I typically cant find fault with it, why the continued studies? As you pointed out we are beyond that point. How about real solutions? Why increases in studies, why assign blame? We know the problem, and typically speaking we know how to fix it.
 
Also, in my school book (and I admit it has been a while) Archimedes' principle dealt with weight (which is irrelevant to this discussion).

You seem to be saying it addresses volume (which would be highly relevant), but it doesn't.
Archimedes Principle came in on the discussion of floating ice affecting sea water levels. Archimedes Principle relates the displaced liquid volume to the downward force exerted by an object and the liquids density. Both weight/force and volume displaced are addressed. A few posts up there is a link to a idiot PhD trying to argue salinity and density differences as a driver and claimed that seas could rise by as much as the total available fresh water in the world. That kind of idiot science only detracts from any real discussion as it hurts credibility.

I did a post earlier showing the density impacts on water due to heating. I did a quick google search and found the density curve. For several degrees of heating there is a 0.1% change in density. That’s pretty straight forward. The data right now seems to indicate the mean temperature is rising about 0.1C per decade. The driving mechanism is a point of debate Id submit. (See Louder’s post above)

On land ice, especially in the Antarctic which is the largest sheet I have in posted a link showing that it is increasing in recent years. Bart disputed that so I showed a graph of the net addition/subtracted about the mean since around 1970?
 
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Archimedes Principle came in on the discussion of floating ice affecting sea water levels. Archimedes Principle relates the displaced liquid volume to the downward force exerted by an object and the liquids density. Both weight/force and volume displaced are addressed. A few posts up there is a link to a idiot PhD trying to argue salinity and density differences as a driver and claimed that seas could rise by as much as the total available fresh water in the world. That kind of idiot science only detracts from any real discussion as it hurts credibility.

I did a post earlier showing the density impacts on water due to heating. I did a quick google search and found the density curve. Fur several degrees of heating there is a 0.1% change in density. That’s pretty straight forward. The data right now seems to indicate the mean temperature is rising about 0.1C per decade. The driving mechanism is a point of debate Id submit.

On land ice, especially in the Antarctic which is the largest sheet I have in posted a link showing that it is increasing in recent years. Bart disputed that so I showed a graph of the net addition/subtracted about the mean since around 1970?

Pretty sure you have it backwards. It is a measure of the upward force, or buoyancy, and is calculated by the weight of the object in general - the weight of the object in the liquid in question. Volume and density of the object are not directly addressed in Archimedes' equation.

The amount of possible rise has been definitively calculated. It is 215 feet or so above current. So there will be no Waterworld. That is actual scare-mongering.

Obviously we don't have to get close to that for there to be some serious issues with all the populations that will be displaced at even 50 feet above normal.

Antarctic sea ice is also not a relevant factor. What if sea ice is growing because of melting land ice?

The most recent measures show that the loss of land ice has dramatically accelerated in Antarctica. I'm sure there are brief periods where the continent catches enough snowfall to overwhelm the trend, but the trend is clear.

Antarctic Land Ice Loss by Decade

was 40 gigatons per year in the 70s and 80s,

was 50 gigatons per year in the 90s

was 166 gigatons per year in the aughts

was 250+ gigatons per year 2009-2017
 
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Pretty sure you have it backwards. It is a measure of the upward force, or buoyancy, and is calculated by the weight of the object in general - the weight of the object in the liquid in question. Volume and density of the object are not directly addressed in Archimedes' equation.

The amount of possible rise has been definitively calculated. It is 215 feet or so above current. So there will be no Waterworld. That is actual scare-mongeing.

Obviously we don't have to get close to that for there to be some serious issues with all the populations that will be displaced at even 50 feet above normal.

Antarctic sea ice is also not a relevant factor. What if sea ice is growing because of melting land ice?

The most recent measures show that the loss of land ice has dramatically accelerated in Antarctica. I'm sure there are brief periods where the continent catches enough snowfall to overwhelm the trend, but the trend is clear.

Antarctic Land Ice Loss by Decade

was 40 gigatons per year in the 70s and 80s,

was 50 gigatons per year in the 90s

was 166 gigatons per year in the aughts

was 250+ gigatons per year 2009-2017
So no I’ve stated how it works. The volume of liquid displaced is equally to the weight (edit: and I believe “mass” would be more rigorously correct. We get sloppy with units when dealing with weight/force and mass) of the object floated divided by the density of the liquid in equilibrium. If the volume of water required exceeds the total volume of the object being floated the object sinks as it has negative buoyancy.

If ALL of the Antarctic sheet ice melted the sea level would rise about 200 ft. I showed a graph earlier showing that isn’t the case with data up into 2019. (I think we’re actually in agreement on this)

If we agree floated ice isn’t a driver on sea level then we should probably retire the argument? 🤷‍♂️
 
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I googled Antarctic Sea Ice 2019. From NOAA.gov. I’d say the biggest thing that jumps out is the variability about a fairly nominal level? 🤷‍♂️

View attachment 212813

@Rifleman here is the graph from NOAA showing the Antarctic land ice mass since 1970.

Edit: nope my apologies that is sea ice my apologies. I posted it last night and I’ve slept since my bad.
 
So no I’ve stated how it works. The volume of liquid displaced is equally to the weight of the object floated divided by the density of the liquid in equilibrium. If the volume of water required exceeds the total volume of the object being floated the object sinks as it has negative buoyancy.

If ALL of the Antarctic sheet ice melted the sea level would rise about 200 ft.

A little more, assuming Greenland and glaciers would be mostly gone then. But yeah, essentially we agree.

I showed a graph earlier showing that isn’t the case with data up into 2019.

Yes, Antarctica still has a lot of land ice. It is just losing that ice at an rapidly increasing rate.

I wish this wasn't true, but there is very good data saying otherwise: https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095

If we agree floated ice isn’t a driver on sea level then we should probably retire the argument? 🤷‍♂️

Agreed. Sea ice is only relevant in that it reflects light and keeps temps lower. That discussion is a red herring overall though.
 
A little more, assuming Greenland and glaciers would be mostly gone then. But yeah, essentially we agree.



Yes, Antarctica still has a lot of land ice. It is just losing that ice at an rapidly increasing rate.

I wish this wasn't true, but there is very good data saying otherwise: https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095



Agreed. Sea ice is only relevant in that it reflects light and keeps temps lower. That discussion is a red herring overall though.
Rifleman I don’t disagree that a large land ice mass loss would impact our sea levels. What I take issue with is laying the blame at the feet of mankind.

CO2 emissions is a popular topic. However we’ve got plenty of data that CO2 levels today aren’t very far off from long ago times and in fact are lower than many ancient periods.

I personally do not believe we can stop Mother Nature and believe it’s folly to waste resources trying. I’ve got no problem with studying the trends though. Solid historical data is a great resource.

I’d rather see us spend resources in finding ways to adapt to rising sea levels than naively assume we can do a damn thing about it. Just my personal opinion.
 
Also, in my school book (and I admit it has been a while) Archimedes' principle dealt with weight (which is irrelevant to this discussion).

You seem to be saying it addresses volume (which would be highly relevant), but it doesn't.
It deals with both.......weight(actually mass)/volume = Density.
 
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Pretty sure you have it backwards. It is a measure of the upward force, or buoyancy, and is calculated by the weight of the object in general - the weight of the object in the liquid in question. Volume and density of the object are not directly addressed in Archimedes' equation.

The amount of possible rise has been definitively calculated. It is 215 feet or so above current. So there will be no Waterworld. That is actual scare-mongering.

Obviously we don't have to get close to that for there to be some serious issues with all the populations that will be displaced at even 50 feet above normal.

Antarctic sea ice is also not a relevant factor. What if sea ice is growing because of melting land ice?

The most recent measures show that the loss of land ice has dramatically accelerated in Antarctica. I'm sure there are brief periods where the continent catches enough snowfall to overwhelm the trend, but the trend is clear.

Antarctic Land Ice Loss by Decade

was 40 gigatons per year in the 70s and 80s,

was 50 gigatons per year in the 90s

was 166 gigatons per year in the aughts

was 250+ gigatons per year 2009-2017
You need to study some more. Volume and Density are the basis for using Archimedes principal. Displacement is the founding variable. You can not calculate displacement without volume and density. That is why you can calculate "weight" from displacement of water. A steel hulled boat will ride lower in the water because it's total weight/displacement volume is greater than the same wooden hulled boat. When you are dealing with Ice, it is a direct density correlation. If you have a known displacement of x amount of water, whatever water is being displaced can be "weighed" and then you will know the weight of the object. You must know the density of the liquid being displaced though. That is where salinity and temperature (once again density) come in.

Also, land ice is the only relevant factor. Sea ice is already floating......or displacing the amount of water that will cause a sea level rise. There are absolutely minor variations here because of the change to the density of the seawater that the ice is floating in but they are so minor that they really can't be relevant to the discussion.
 
Rifleman I don’t disagree that a large land ice mass loss would impact our sea levels. What I take issue with is laying the blame at the feet of mankind.

CO2 emissions is a popular topic. However we’ve got plenty of data that CO2 levels today aren’t very far off from long ago times and in fact are lower than many ancient periods.

I personally do not believe we can stop Mother Nature and believe it’s folly to waste resources trying. I’ve got no problem with studying the trends though. Solid historical data is a great resource.

I’d rather see us spend resources in finding ways to adapt to rising sea levels than naively assume we can do a damn thing about it. Just my personal opinion.

WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Dude, you are rambling incoherently and literally just making stuff up. Are you a member of Trump's cabinet? If not, you should apply.

The epitome of arrogance is to say we can't smell our own sh*t on our knees. We did it. We are responsible. It's really happening, and you can't pull a Dumb Donald and blame someone else.

CO2 levels are booming. Global temperatures are rising. 98% of scientists agree.

You're welcome to deny reality. I'll go about my life working with the majority of responsible citizens in this country who agree global warming is a problem. Meanwhile, you stick your head back in the sand. Your grandkids can thank me later. :)

SOURCE: NASA

24_co2-graph-061219-768px (1).jpg
 
It deals with both.......weight(actually mass)/volume = Density.

Weight is a measure of gravitational exertion whereas mass is a quantitative amount of matter. Weight is not "actually mass" as you posit it in your equation above.

For instance, on the moon I have the exact same mass, but I weigh 6 times less. That is a significant difference.
 
Weight is a measure of gravitational exertion whereas mass is a quantitative amount of matter. Weight is not "actually mass" as you posit it in your equation above.

For instance, on the moon I have the exact same mass, but I weigh 6 time less. That is a significant difference.
I want to give my Lunar weight from now. Sounds so much better.
 
WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Dude, you are rambling incoherently and literally just making stuff up. Are you a member of Trump's cabinet? If not, you should apply.

The epitome of arrogance is to say we can't smell our own sh*t on our knees. We did it. We are responsible. It's really happening, and you can't pull a Dumb Donald and blame someone else.

CO2 levels are booming. Global temperatures are rising. 98% of scientists agree.

You're welcome to deny reality. I'll go about my life working with the majority of responsible citizens in this country who agree global warming is a problem. Meanwhile, you stick your head back in the sand. Your grandkids can thank me later. :)

SOURCE: NASA

View attachment 212845
Go back a bit further in time poindexter. You really suck at this science thing. There have been periods in the earth’s past where CO2 levels were this high and we were never around. The oceans were estimated to be about 100 ft higher. As I said the forcing function is debated. Your narrative laying this solely at the feet of mankind isn’t supported by the historical data.

The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist
 
WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Dude, you are rambling incoherently and literally just making stuff up. Are you a member of Trump's cabinet? If not, you should apply.

The epitome of arrogance is to say we can't smell our own sh*t on our knees. We did it. We are responsible. It's really happening, and you can't pull a Dumb Donald and blame someone else.

CO2 levels are booming. Global temperatures are rising. 98% of scientists agree.

You're welcome to deny reality. I'll go about my life working with the majority of responsible citizens in this country who agree global warming is a problem. Meanwhile, you stick your head back in the sand. Your grandkids can thank me later. :)

SOURCE: NASA

View attachment 212845
I have so many intelligent questions about your lovely graph. Seriously, I think the background is very pretty.
 
Weight is a measure of gravitational exertion whereas mass is a quantitative amount of matter. Weight is not "actually mass" as you posit it in your equation above.

For instance, on the moon I have the exact same mass, but I weigh 6 times less. That is a significant difference.
At mean sea level on earth we can interchange weight and mass and still be quite accurate. That’s why I put my edit in above. I do this all the time because I am a lazy old engineer. If I ever have to design a control system working outside our atmosphere I’ll worry about gravitational force. I really hope in the 4ish years I have left I don’t have to 🤷‍♂️
 
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Go back a bit further in time poindexter. You really suck at this science thing. There have been periods in the earth’s past where CO2 levels were this high and we were never around. The oceans were estimated to be about 100 ft higher. As I said the forcing function is debated. Your narrative laying this solely at the feet of mankind isn’t supported by the historical data.

The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist

Well thank you for proving my point. Seems we're in agreement after all. Here's a salient tidbit from the article you linked:

“This was a time when global temperatures were substantially warmer than today, and there was very little ice around anywhere on the planet. And so sea level was considerably higher — around 100 feet higher — than it is today,” said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, in an email conversation. “It is for this reason that some climate scientists, like James Hansen, have argued that even current-day CO2 levels are too high. There is the possibility that we’ve already breached the threshold of truly dangerous human influence on our climate and planet.”
 
Well thank you for proving my point. Seems we're in agreement after all. Here's a salient tidbit from the article you linked:

“This was a time when global temperatures were substantially warmer than today, and there was very little ice around anywhere on the planet. And so sea level was considerably higher — around 100 feet higher — than it is today,” said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, in an email conversation. “It is for this reason that some climate scientists, like James Hansen, have argued that even current-day CO2 levels are too high. There is the possibility that we’ve already breached the threshold of truly dangerous human influence on our climate and planet.”
We most definitely are not in agreement and your “science” sucks.

The epitome of arrogance is to say we can't smell our own sh*t on our knees. We did it. We are responsible. It's really happening, and you can't pull a Dumb Donald and blame someone else.

Bonus poindexter points for the TDS rant 😂
 
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Weight is a measure of gravitational exertion whereas mass is a quantitative amount of matter. Weight is not "actually mass" as you posit it in your equation above.

For instance, on the moon I have the exact same mass, but I weigh 6 times less. That is a significant difference.
OK, whatever. You understand the difference between weight and mass but completely miss the purpose of the principal. I give you 25 points for your understanding of mass but you still fail in your explanation of the principal and how density (a function of MASS and volume) plays into it. Epic fail.
 
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