Commodity shortages

#277
#277
Rasputin_Vol said:
I think the problem is that there really wasn't supply issues driving the price up over the last 4-5 months. There were several stories and reports of lumber yards having plenty of supply but were having difficulties in either the supply chain or some other beauracratic issue.
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There is a long-term supply issue (Canada restricting cutting) and a short-term supply issue (sawmill bottleneck). But I think the huge spike reflected a brief market meltdown + speculation.
 
#278
#278
Rasputin_Vol said:
I think the problem is that there really wasn't supply issues driving the price up over the last 4-5 months. There were several stories and reports of lumber yards having plenty of supply but were having difficulties in either the supply chain or some other beauracratic issue.
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It's been a lot of things. Mills closed down due to worker shortages or production capacity changes due to the pandemic. There is a massive shortage of CDL drivers to move the product from the mills to the point of sale. Housing starts have remained steady and even increased but existing inventory is at historic lows and it's not enough. And that didn't account for how many homebound people finally decided to finish that addition or complete reno projects they'd been putting off. The correction you're seeing at the moment has a lot to do with the drop in new home starts, which isn't a good sign. The people behind us bought a ranch home with plans to gut it and add a second story. The lumber issues went from adding $25k to $75k. So they just sat on it. Pushing forward could mean you finish your project and are already underwater on the appraisal. He's a contractor and said he's having problems sourcing junction boxes, anything steel is through the roof, certain types of paint just disappear from the shelves.
 
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#279
#279
I’m sure that if we were socialists instead of capitalists all of these shortages would have never happened or at least the lumber yards would be overflowing by now.
 
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#280
#280
DancingOutlaw said:
It's been a lot of things. Mills closed down due to worker shortages or production capacity changes due to the pandemic. There is a massive shortage of CDL drivers to move the product from the mills to the point of sale. Housing starts have remained steady and even increased but existing inventory is at historic lows and it's not enough. And that didn't account for how many homebound people finally decided to finish that addition or complete reno projects they'd been putting off. The correction you're seeing at the moment has a lot to do with the drop in new home starts, which isn't a good sign. The people behind us bought a ranch home with plans to gut it and add a second story. The lumber issues went from adding $25k to $75k. So they just sat on it. Pushing forward could mean you finish your project and are already underwater on the appraisal. He's a contractor and said he's having problems sourcing junction boxes, anything steel is through the roof, certain types of paint just disappear from the shelves.
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The trucking part is another interesting element. I listened to a podcast on it recently, and it's a much more volatile business than I imagined. Thousands of companies are formed/go under every year.
 
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#281
#281
utvolpj said:
Not many that I saw. Some that weren't in the ground yet may have paused but most were just plugging along.
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Well let me back up. You're right. Not everybody halted. I'm just saying that builders found ways around the problem by either doing other things on site or substitution.
 
#283
#283
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#284
#284
Orangeburst said:
Not commodities, but we cant get product anymore from most suppliers...killing my profession and if this is some long term issue, I might as well hang up the spurs. Getting 21-23 weeks leadtimes for stuff that was typical 4-6 weeks.
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What kind of stuff?
 
#288
#288
Take it for what it’s worth … just got back from talking to my buddy that owns 3 Corner stores here in Norfolk , he’s is running low on beer and struggling to restock it . He said they are all telling him the same thing , low labor forces are hurting their productivity, also said Red Bull was next . He’s a wheeler and dealer guy , give him a few days and he can find just about anything , not this time he said .
 
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#289
#289
0nelilreb said:
Take it for what it’s worth … just got back from talking to my buddy that owns 3 Corner stores here in Norfolk , he’s is running low on beer and struggling to restock it . He said they are all telling him the same thing , low labor forces are hurting their productivity, also said Red Bull was next . He’s a wheeler and dealer guy , give him a few days and he can find just about anything , not this time he said .
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We have to do something about this. This is an outrage.
 
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#291
#291
0nelilreb said:
There’s two things you don’t want to run out of in a town like Norfolk .. FOOD AND ALCOHOL. The Covid virus would be mild compared to the hospitals filling up with people going into withdrawals .
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Tough choices for a lot of people. Stack coffee or stack beer?
 
#292
#292
Rasputin_Vol said:
Tough choices for a lot of people. Stack coffee or stack beer?
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Not really , the ones that have to have beer don’t stack it , they can get coffee handed out to them almost anywhere so no stacking there either . The people that stop in for one on the way home because it’s hot will just be inconvenienced, the ones the walk to the store to stand around begging for a dollar to get a beer will be in trouble if this goes to far .
 
#293
#293
Orangeburst said:
Not commodities, but we cant get product anymore from most suppliers...killing my profession and if this is some long term issue, I might as well hang up the spurs. Getting 21-23 weeks leadtimes for stuff that was typical 4-6 weeks.
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I'm beginning to see the same with aftermarket performance auto parts. Items that had been on the shelf and ready to ship are now 60 to 90 days out. My rebuild project has been slow going due to this.
 
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#294
#294
ETV said:
I'm beginning to see the same with aftermarket performance auto parts. Items that had been on the shelf and ready to ship are now 60 to 90 days out. My rebuild project has been slow going due to this.
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New logistics theory and just in time delivery - everything is supposedly stocked at somebody else's expense somewhere else. Worked more or less OK when things were normal.
 
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#295
#295
Is A Liquor Shortage Looming? | ZeroHedge

Take a labor shortage involving a lack of truck drivers, dock workers, and warehouse employees, then shake that up with backed up docks, slower manufacturing processes and more expensive raw materials, and you get a quick lesson in how supply chain economics is having a direct impact on small businesses all over the U.S. Everything from the labor market and the sudden re-opening of bars to a lack of glass bottles and aluminum cans is blamed for liquor shortages reported in Winooski, Vermont; Durham, North Carolina; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota. -Forbes
 
#296
#296
Rasputin_Vol said:
Is A Liquor Shortage Looming? | ZeroHedge

Take a labor shortage involving a lack of truck drivers, dock workers, and warehouse employees, then shake that up with backed up docks, slower manufacturing processes and more expensive raw materials, and you get a quick lesson in how supply chain economics is having a direct impact on small businesses all over the U.S. Everything from the labor market and the sudden re-opening of bars to a lack of glass bottles and aluminum cans is blamed for liquor shortages reported in Winooski, Vermont; Durham, North Carolina; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota. -Forbes
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This will not sit well with the natives.
 
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#297
#297
AM64 said:
This will not sit well with the natives.
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A global power play and too stupid to realize it.

The narrative is CCP ships arrive and go back empty. Well aint that a fancy way of saying the CCP aint buying **** from us anymore.The way this is going down, CCP retribution for Trumps tarrifs
 
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#299
#299
Orangeburst said:
A global power play and too stupid to realize it.

The narrative is CCP ships arrive and go back empty. Well aint that a fancy way of saying the CCP aint buying **** from us anymore.The way this is going down, CCP retribution for Trumps tarrifs
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I think the first thing months ago had to do with our agricultural products and taking too much time to fill containers to ship them back - like the backlog at shipping centers was too big to worry with perishables. I'm pretty sure the translated version is exactly as you say "We're going to sell you our knockoffs, our stuff from your stolen plans, our contaminated medical and food feedstocks, you will like it, and we won't be accepting anything but money." Personally, I'd like to see a US embargo against Chinese goods and a return to self reliance.
 
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