Commodity shortages

#626
#626
Vol423 said:
The problem is that you're assuming flawless execution of software. Please give me ONE example of flawless execution of software in the real world. Once you've done that, tell me how long you think it will take for the Chinese and Russians to hack this software.
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Software executes as it is instructed. Even the term “bug” in computer systems came about after a moth shorted out hardware, not software.

Companies like Palo Alto fight back against hackers. Redundant systems are continuously improved to avoid failure. Sabotage isn’t a new concept that only exists because of automated systems.

Fuel delivery systems aren’t flawless, but they are one example of a far more reliable system utilizing software than mechanically driven carburetors.

Watches used to have to be wound everyday and periodically adjusted. Now they adjust automatically.

Bookkeepers used to have to precisely add up columns of numbers in ledgers and journals. Now software handles that flawlessly.
 
#627
#627
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Software executes as it is instructed. Even the term “bug” in computer systems came about after a moth shorted out hardware, not software.

Companies like Palo Alto fight back against hackers. Redundant systems are continuously improved to avoid failure. Sabotage isn’t a new concept that only exists because of automated systems.

Fuel delivery systems aren’t flawless, but they are one example of a far more reliable system utilizing software than mechanically driven carburetors.

Watches used to have to be wound everyday and periodically adjusted. Now they adjust automatically.

Bookkeepers used to have to precisely add up columns of numbers in ledgers and journals. Now software handles that flawlessly.
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...and none of that addresses my questions. Hell, I can't even get a single software update to my iPhone or Microsoft windows that isn't flawed. You completely ignored the hacking issue. Yes. Companies like Palo Alto fight against hackers. Why? Because EVERYBODY is constantly getting hacked, and that is happening regardless of whether companies are using Palo Alto and similar companies or not. Most people have no idea how common it is for major corporations and government entities to be hacked.
 
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#628
#628
Vol423 said:
...and none of that addresses my questions. Hell, I can't even get a single software update to my iPhone or Microsoft windows that isn't flawed. You completely ignored the hacking issue. Yes. Companies like Palo Alto fight against hackers. Why? Because EVERYBODY is constantly getting hacked, and that is happening regardless of whether companies are using Palo Alto and similar companies or not. Most people have no idea how common it is for major corporations and government entities to be hacked.
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Why are you hung up on improvements needing to be “flawless”? Seems like “better” would be sufficient.

I absolutely did not ignore your point about hacking. The cost/benefit takes priority over 100% elimination of hacking however. Better systems create efficiencies. Being 100% flawless isn’t economic reality. If an unhackable, closed system costs 1,000x as much as one that has slight vulnerabilities, common sense dictates that the viable system will not be 100% flawless.
 
#630
#630
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Why are you hung up on improvements needing to be “flawless”? Seems like “better” would be sufficient.

I absolutely did not ignore your point about hacking. The cost/benefit takes priority over 100% elimination of hacking however. Better systems create efficiencies. Being 100% flawless isn’t economic reality. If an unhackable, closed system costs 1,000x as much as one that has slight vulnerabilities, common sense dictates that the viable system will not be 100% flawless.
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Because when you start talking about having U.S. roadways packed with trucks driven by software, a simple piece of malware can cause catastrophic outcomes. I guess that is beyond your realm of thinking.
 
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#631
#631
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes, the trucks will talk to each other. They will also be monitored via satellite back to command centers. Their sensors will process thousands of pieces of information every second and adjustments will be instantaneous. The software will ensure that they don’t get angry at the car that cut them off and ride their rear bumper. When traffic ahead comes to a stop, they won’t be daydreaming and plow into the traffic jam. When other vehicles are entering the highway they will adjust their speed for orderly merges rather than speeding up to cut them off.
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Yep that sounds fantastic in a perfect world…until a sensor fails and economics say bypass it, or until we have an electronics crisis like today and we have thousands of trucks shuttered.
Don’t get me wrong I’m all for technology, I just sense that we’re being rushed into adopting technology that’s just not there. It works in the lab but how close is it to really being ready for the real world.
 
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#632
#632
Vol423 said:
Because when you start talking about having U.S. roadways packed with trucks driven by software, a simple piece of malware can cause catastrophic outcomes. I guess that is beyond your realm of thinking.
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Not sure why you are resorting to adding an insult, but…

I highly doubt that a simple piece of malware will create catastrophic outcomes.

The roadway congestion is determined by the quantity of goods being transported, not whether or not there is a human operating the trucks pulling the loads. Actually with autonomous trucking the off hours can more readily be utilized. The systems won’t be falling asleep if running all night. Holidays and weekends and other times when there is less traffic can be optimized for shipping.
 
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#634
#634
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The technology will be perfected long before the legislation and stigma allows the roll out.
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I’d hope so but I can see our current administration being bribed into an executive order to solve our current “supply chain” crisis
 
#635
#635
Wireless1 said:
Yep that sounds fantastic in a perfect world…until a sensor fails and economics say bypass it, or until we have an electronics crisis like today and we have thousands of trucks shuttered.
Don’t get me wrong I’m all for technology, I just sense that we’re being rushed into adopting technology that’s just not there. It works in the lab but how close is it to really being ready for the real world.
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Human drivers are far from flawless.

Sensors can be expected to fail and redundant systems and other means will be in place to manage those issues. More likely what will happen is that sensors will be able to detect things like failing tires and equipment will be pulled off of routes for repair as a standard protocol.
 
#636
#636
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I highly doubt that a simple piece of malware will create catastrophic outcomes.

The roadway congestion is determined by the quantity of goods being transported, not whether or not there is a human operating the trucks pulling the loads. Actually with autonomous trucking the off hours can more readily be utilized. The systems won’t be falling asleep if running all night. Holidays and weekends and other times when there is less traffic can be optimized for shipping.
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Explain that to all the Toyota victims….and we really don’t know how many of those victims there are/were
 
#637
#637
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I highly doubt that a simple piece of malware will create catastrophic outcomes.

The roadway congestion is determined by the quantity of goods being transported, not whether or not there is a human operating the trucks pulling the loads. Actually with autonomous trucking the off hours can more readily be utilized. The systems won’t be falling asleep if running all night. Holidays and weekends and other times when there is less traffic can be optimized for shipping.
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You don’t get it. You don’t want to get it. You either don’t understand the nature of the possible negative consequences, or simply don’t care because you think technology is the solution for everything. People that don’t think through the possible negative ramifications of major changes like this endanger the whole country. Do I think it is posible to eventually reach your utopia of a no-human driver society? Yes. We are nowhere close to being ready for that. The issues I have raised are real and they are HUGE.
 
#639
#639
Vol423 said:
You don’t get it. You don’t want to get it. You either don’t understand the nature of the possible negative consequences, or simply don’t care because you think technology is the solution for everything. People that don’t think through the possible negative ramifications of major changes like this endanger the whole country. Do I think it is posible to eventually reach your utopia of a no-human driver society? Yes. We are nowhere close to being ready for that. The issues I have raised are real and they are HUGE.
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I never suggested a no-human driver society. Calm down, Cletus.
 
#640
#640
hog88 said:
I've always thought we should have done more to expand the rail system.
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Congress granted RR alternating blocks of 15 acre on either side of each rail line in perpetuity along with the 100’ on either side as a permanent land grant to the railroad during expansion in the late 1800. They not only own the alternate 15 acres but any mineral, wood and water rights associated with those acres. I think they have enough power.
This is why the EPA has a hard time even touching the railroad for spills or contamination within the various large Bols across the north and north east.
Railroaders are some of the most hardened ruthless people I’ve ever seen or interacted with.
They also have rails running along every major food supplier in the US as redundancy system to the food chain ever failing with truckers.
So as I’m driving to work last night I see port Norfolk once again the same rail car with the exact same 4 cargo containers on it that was sitting there last week. Meanwhile the cargo containers I see being unloaded are still being stacked and empty shipping vessels moored. Normally stacked 4 high in June are now 8 high with added width and depth.
Call me crazy but it looks like the redundancy system isn’t being used.. at all. For a nation with shortages of basic goods that system should have already be utilized weeks ago, almost like they are intentionally driving inflation.
Just an observation.
BA82E79F-6C07-49E8-ADC0-0411FB4AD1F2.jpeg
 
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#641
#641
Wireless1 said:
Explain that to all the Toyota victims….and we really don’t know how many of those victims there are/were
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…and that’s nothing. Convert all delivery trucks to this system. What happens when malware is loaded that encrypts the systems and shuts them down? People starve, but it’s no big deal because Thunder Big-Oil told everyone that malware shouldn’t be a concern.
 
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#643
#643
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Human drivers are far from flawless.

Sensors can be expected to fail and redundant systems and other means will be in place to manage those issues. More likely what will happen is that sensors will be able to detect things like failing tires and equipment will be pulled off of routes for repair as a standard protocol.
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Why would I think you are arguing against human drivers?
 
#645
#645
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Human drivers are far from flawless.

Sensors can be expected to fail and redundant systems and other means will be in place to manage those issues. More likely what will happen is that sensors will be able to detect things like failing tires and equipment will be pulled off of routes for repair as a standard protocol.
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Refinery’s and chemical plants have all those things and still make CNN quarterly when something fails
 
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#646
#646
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes, the trucks will talk to each other. They will also be monitored via satellite back to command centers. Their sensors will process thousands of pieces of information every second and adjustments will be instantaneous. The software will ensure that they don’t get angry at the car that cut them off and ride their rear bumper. When traffic ahead comes to a stop, they won’t be daydreaming and plow into the traffic jam. When other vehicles are entering the highway they will adjust their speed for orderly merges rather than speeding up to cut them off.
Click to expand...
Sounds an awful lot like you’re arguing for no human drivers.
 
#647
#647
Sometimes driving my car my collision avoidance system will freak out around a curve thinking I am about to have a head on crash, when there is no danger at all. Wheel unexpectedly shakes and sometimes I think the dang thing is going to run me off the road. Rather unnerving
 
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