Commodity shortages

#676
#676
TNJOKER said:
While I do not think taking humans out the equation would be a smart move at this time (The technology is there.. it just needs to be vastly improved which will happen within the next 5-10 years. Just an opinion). As of now, For every 4.5 million miles driven with Tesla's auto-pilot there is 1 accident. Which by modern standards is pretty good.
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Yes, it is coming. In one of my earliest comments I suggested that driving a truck will be highly lucrative for the next couple of decades (because of the diminishing supply of willing drivers). But trucking will eventually migrate substantially to AV platforms. It will work best over the federal interstate system with the thousands of miles of standard road design. Local roads will be much more difficult to integrate with the technology. I could see a system similar to harbor pilots taking over navigation for container ships arriving at ports. AV trucks could move cargo over long distances on the interstates and then human drivers could navigate the final few miles to and from warehousing and distribution points.

Automobile AVs share the technological requirements, but it is a different business model. AV trucking is more economically feasible.
 
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#677
#677
Wireless1 said:
Hence why we are so scared….constantly under hacking attacks that require frequent patches, and a continuous requirement to purchase upgrades not to mention the upgrades frequently require new hardware. Those are exactly the type organizations I want developing software that put my grandchildren at risk….the fact that the largest current software companies are the ones developing this technology is not a comforting fact for many of us
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It’s already pretty scary that 4,000 or 5,000 people die every year in truck accidents.
 
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#678
#678
utvolpj said:
Told the wife if I lost my job right now I'd go learn to drive one
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For an advisory fee .. I’ll teach you what not to do . You’ll be money ahead . Think of it like you do your house , sign up early with me and avoid the sh!t show that’s about to happen . 😂
 
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#679
#679
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes, the trucks will talk to each other. They will also be monitored via satellite back to command centers. Their sensors will process thousands of pieces of information every second and adjustments will be instantaneous. The software will ensure that they don’t get angry at the car that cut them off and ride their rear bumper. When traffic ahead comes to a stop, they won’t be daydreaming and plow into the traffic jam. When other vehicles are entering the highway they will adjust their speed for orderly merges rather than speeding up to cut them off.
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You and I have a completely different view of things from the road . I’m guessing your view would be looking up a lot at truckers as you drive your 4 wheeler zipping in at out between us and trying to decide if you can make it passed us before the next one coming at you gets to close to try it and kill us all .
 
#681
#681
All this talk of driverless trucks and need for separate road systems and we already have the dilapidated and aged infrastructure for rail system. Ports and rail systems around the world have been going through upgrades over the last decade. We are far behind in catching up.
 
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#684
#684
The technology for us to have autonomous commercial aircraft flying people around the world is out there and pretty well proven yet we still do not have pilotless planes hauling people around for a reason.
 
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#685
#685
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes, it is coming. In one of my earliest comments I suggested that driving a truck will be highly lucrative for the next couple of decades (because of the diminishing supply of willing drivers). But trucking will eventually migrate substantially to AV platforms. It will work best over the federal interstate system with the thousands of miles of standard road design. Local roads will be much more difficult to integrate with the technology. I could see a system similar to harbor pilots taking over navigation for container ships arriving at ports. AV trucks could move cargo over long distances on the interstates and then human drivers could navigate the final few miles to and from warehousing and distribution points.

Automobile AVs share the technological requirements, but it is a different business model. AV trucking is more economically feasible.
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When it's stretched over a couple of decades this becomes much more realistic, unfortunately today's environment is do it now.
FOr the trillions of dollars that will be required to implement this, wouldn't it be more realistic to use our current (expanded) rail system to perform the long haul and port distribution portion? If we reinstate the Keystone we'd open up millions of cargo tons.
 
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#686
#686
0nelilreb said:
You and I have a completely different view of things from the road . I’m guessing your view would be looking up a lot at truckers as you drive your 4 wheeler zipping in at out between us and trying to decide if you can make it passed us before the next one coming at you gets to close to try it and kill us all .
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No. I am a safe driver. I’ve seen plenty of ass-hats on the interstate and believe that AV trucks will always travel defensively and courteously.
 
#688
#688
hog88 said:
The technology for us to have autonomous commercial aircraft flying people around the world is out there and pretty well proven yet we still do not have pilotless planes hauling people around for a reason.
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Because air fatalities are rare with the existing system.
 
#690
#690
Thunder Good-Oil said:
No. I am a safe driver. I’ve seen plenty of ass-hats on the interstate and believe that AV trucks will always travel defensively and courteously.
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Will your AV look around and notice the asshat driving crazy and adjust accordingly ? Can your AV anticipate what other drivers are about to do based on years of experience and be prepared for them to pass you doing 80 then pull in front of you or will it just react when they do it ?
 
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#692
#692
0nelilreb said:
Will your AV look around and notice the asshat driving crazy and adjust accordingly ? Can your AV anticipate what other drivers are about to do based on years of experience and be prepared for them to pass you doing 80 then pull in front of you or will it just react when they do it ?
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It probably will, but what it won't do is have the experience to know/feel something isn't right and adjust accordingly.
 
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#693
#693
Wireless1 said:
When it's stretched over a couple of decades this becomes much more realistic, unfortunately today's environment is do it now.
FOr the trillions of dollars that will be required to implement this, wouldn't it be more realistic to use our current (expanded) rail system to perform the long haul and port distribution portion? If we reinstate the Keystone we'd open up millions of cargo tons.
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I can think of at least three hurdles. Technological, economic, and political. IMO the technological hurdle is close to being ready. The economics are moving quickly and if the driver shortage continues it will be viable soon. Political, with what seems like most innovation in the US, will be the most difficult to overcome. PR is part of having appropriate legislation in place and I would include legal issues as well. There are many with conflicting financial interests that will resist change. Organized labor especially will fight. Owner/operators with legacy investment too. While that happens here, the CCP will perfect their version. Additional opposition will come from anti-corporatism voices. The players that will see the quickest economic benefit would be the big ones. Notably Walmart, Amazon, and UPS/FedEx. Any organization that sends lots of heavy trucks up, down, and across the interstate system.

Much of the infrastructure is already in place. Interstates and trailers and distribution centers. It’s just the labor and tractor elements that would be subject to change initially. Longer term things like roadside sensors and repurposed truck stops come into play. And “Harbor Pilot” type of jobs rather than long haul drivers could become the norm.
 
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#697
#697
Thunder Good-Oil said:
That’s something that AI will eventually be much better at than the human drivers have been able to handle.
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Maybe so but I don't see that happening for several years, decades.

IMO money would be better spent increasing rail capacity between cities and establishing marshaling yards where goods/commodities are then distributed from.
 
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