Confident USU Fans (blue cool-aid)

#176
#176
chatt-townVOL said:
You're talking about exceptions, not rules. No one is arguing its impossible for USU to win. On any given Saturday anything could happen.

For every Appy State/Michigan there are 50+ examples of the better team from the better conference winning. If USU wins it will be the exception, the thread is about them acting as though it would be the rule.
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michigan was a top 5 team favored by 40 points against an FCS team. Oklahoma was top 10.

Tennessee doesn't have more than a handful of players who have ever played in a bowl game. They're currently 6.5 point favorites at home against a mid-major team with 4 new OL, a QB and an RB coming back from an ACL injury, and an all new backfield on defense.

if USU wins, it won't be an upset like app state. maybe comparable to Boise-oklahoma. oklahoma was the favorite, had more talent on paper, and got beat by a team that they should have respected more. but app-mich is a bad comparison.
 
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#179
#179
ficklez said:
michigan was a top 5 team favored by 40 points against an FCS team. Oklahoma was top 10.

Tennessee doesn't have more than a handful of players who have ever played in a bowl game. They're currently 6.5 point favorites at home against a mid-major team with 4 new OL, a QB and an RB coming back from an ACL injury, and an all new backfield on defense.

if USU wins, it won't be an upset like app state. maybe comparable to Boise-oklahoma. oklahoma was the favorite, had more talent on paper, and got beat by a team that they should have respected more. but app-mich is a bad comparison.
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Rules/exceptions. And Utah State falls on the wrong end of whether beating UT would be the former or the latter.
 
#180
#180
ficklez said:
michigan was a top 5 team favored by 40 points against an FCS team. Oklahoma was top 10.

Tennessee doesn't have more than a handful of players who have ever played in a bowl game. They're currently 6.5 point favorites at home against a mid-major team with 4 new OL, a QB and an RB coming back from an ACL injury, and an all new backfield on defense.

if USU wins, it won't be an upset like app state. maybe comparable to Boise-oklahoma. oklahoma was the favorite, had more talent on paper, and got beat by a team that they should have respected more. but app-mich is a bad comparison.
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Boise-Oklahoma and UT-USU is a pretty reasonable comparison.
 
#181
#181
chatt-townVOL said:
Rules/exceptions. And Utah State falls on the wrong end of whether beating UT would be the former or the latter.
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if that's the case, then UT winning any SEC games is an exception rather than the rule since they have won 4 of their last 24, meaning they lost 83% of their conference games. Interestingly, that equates to an upset level in a game with a 15 point spread.
 
#182
#182
#183
#183
ficklez, thanks for the info about USU. Until you got on here, I hadn't heard any facts about the Aggies and what to expect. Come around more often leading up to the game and tell us what you know about the game. The information is appreciated by most.
 
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#185
#185
Backwards K said:
ficklez, thanks for the info about USU. Until you got on here, I hadn't heard any facts about the Aggies and what to expect. Come around more often leading up to the game and tell us what you know about the game. The information is appreciated by most.
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I concur. You dont appear to be part of the fringe wing of your fanbase.
 
#186
#186
ficklez said:
if that's the case, then UT winning any SEC games is an exception rather than the rule since they have won 4 of their last 24, meaning they lost 83% of their conference games. Interestingly, that equates to an upset level in a game with a 15 point spread.
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Really? You want to play that game? Do you decide timelines for exceptions/rules?

Ok then I'll decide my own timeline. Since our program began we are 804-361. We've won just under 70% of the games we've played. So technically us losing to anyone would be the exception going by your theory.

I'm not talking numbers, I'm talking the likelihood of a lesser team from a lesser conference upsetting a bigger team from a better conference. It's the exception. If you want to use recent numbers to support your argument you are 0-4 in your last 4 attempts at it, so your numbers don't favor you winning this game from any angle.
 
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#188
#188
Loweboy said:
This is the second article that says the 1st string offense played against the 2nd string defense. The total numbers of 6 touchdowns is a piss poor performance for a 1st string vs 2nd string. I guess they are just practicing that way since they will face our 2nd string the second half of our game.:dance2:
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First of all, it isn't poor. 6 touchdowns in 110 snaps is not bad. Tennessee scored 35 touchdowns on 804 plays last year. That's 1 TD for every 22 snaps. 6 touchdowns in 110 is one for every 18. So call it poor if you want, but it's 20% better than tennessee had last year. (usu scored 56 in 1,073 plays, or 1 TD for every 19 snaps) edit: it's been pointed out that I'm an idiot for thinking USU can compete with the schedule UT had last year. so if you want to just count games vs unranked FBS teams, thats one in every 21 snaps, instead of 1 in every 22. may God have mercy on my stupid soul. I don't even know how I got through lawl school with a brain this small.

Second, The first team scored 4 touchdowns on 40-45 snaps. An absolutely exceptional rate.

Third, the second team scored 2 in 65-70 snaps. That's indicative of playing against the number 1s on defense, who allowed 2 touchdowns or fewer in 10 games last year. it's also indicative of having all new WRs and RBs in the game. I'm sure if they scored 8 touchdowns, you'd just be saying how bad the defense was though.

Fourth, it doesn't include FGs, so if you're going off how many points it would be, you're way off.
 
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#190
#190
ficklez said:
First of all, it isn't poor. 6 touchdowns in 110 snaps is not bad. Tennessee scored 35 touchdowns on 804 plays last year. That's 1 TD for every 22 snaps. 6 touchdowns in 110 is one for every 18. So call it poor if you want, but it's 20% better than tennessee had last year. (usu scored 56 in 1,073 plays, or 1 TD for every 19 snaps)

Second, The first team scored 4 touchdowns on 40-45 snaps. An absolutely exceptional rate.

Third, the second team scored 2 in 65-70 snaps. That's indicative of playing against the number 1s on defense, who allowed 2 touchdowns or fewer in 10 games last year. it's also indicative of having all new WRs and RBs in the game. I'm sure if they scored 8 touchdowns, you'd just be saying how bad the defense was though.

Fourth, it doesn't include FGs, so if you're going off how many points it would be, you're way off.
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Are you really comparing a scrimmage vs your 2nd team D to UT's schedule last season?
 
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#193
#193
utvolpj said:
Are you really comparing a scrimmage vs your 2nd team D to UT's schedule last season?
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I tell you what. I'll redo it. vs unranked FBS teams only.

16 offensive touchdowns. 332 offensive plays. 1 td for every 20.75 snaps. does that make you happier? and only one of those teams was in the top 50 in scoring defense.
 
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#194
#194
ficklez said:
I tell you what. I'll redo it. vs unranked FBS teams only.

16 offensive touchdowns. 332 offensive plays. 1 td for every 20.75 snaps. does that make you happier? and only one of those teams was in the top 50 in scoring defense.
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Sorry most of us don't fear USU. You want to talk about how we are 3rd or 4th hardest on your schedule. USU is about 9th on ours.
 
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#195
#195
Why are so many of you taking it personally that this guy roots for his team? He has provided some pretty good information if you will just read it and not get your feelings hurt. Many seem upset that the facts seem to indicate Utah State will not come in here and roll over like Western Ky and Austin Peay have done in the past on opening day.

This will be a tough game and should be counted as a good W if the Vols play as we expect and get a hard fought win. I'll take a one point victory today and move on to the next one.
 
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#196
#196
Backwards K said:
Why are so many of you taking it personally that this guy roots for his team? He has provided some pretty good information if you will just read it and not get your feelings hurt. Many seem upset that the facts seem to indicate Utah State will not come in here and roll over like Western Ky and Austin Peay have done in the past on opening day.

This will be a tough game and should be counted as a good W if the Vols play as we expect and get a hard fought win. I'll take a one point victory today and move on to the next one.
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All very true, and I agree. That said, I do expect UT to come out with a win. Odds are it will be within 7, but I won't be shocked if the margin of the UT victory is much bigger.
 
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#197
#197
Backwards K said:
Why are so many of you taking it personally that this guy roots for his team? He has provided some pretty good information if you will just read it and not get your feelings hurt. Many seem upset that the facts seem to indicate Utah State will not come in here and roll over like Western Ky and Austin Peay have done in the past on opening day.

This will be a tough game and should be counted as a good W if the Vols play as we expect and get a hard fought win. I'll take a one point victory today and move on to the next one.
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the WKU turnover streak was insane. seven turnovers. it sucked all life from them, and they did exactly what you said and rolled over.
 
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#198
#198
ficklez said:
the WKU turnover streak was insane. seven turnovers. it sucked all life from them, and they did exactly what you said and rolled over.
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Yeah they would have won if not for that. After all, we were 5-7 and they were 8-4, and everyone knows how many games you win is the only thing that matters when it comes to judging talent/matchups. Just ask your typical Utah State fan.
 
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#199
#199
ficklez said:
michigan was a top 5 team favored by 40 points against an FCS team. Oklahoma was top 10.

Tennessee doesn't have more than a handful of players who have ever played in a bowl game. They're currently 6.5 point favorites at home against a mid-major team with 4 new OL, a QB and an RB coming back from an ACL injury, and an all new backfield on defense.

if USU wins, it won't be an upset like app state. maybe comparable to Boise-oklahoma. oklahoma was the favorite, had more talent on paper, and got beat by a team that they should have respected more. but app-mich is a bad comparison.
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I'll give you this, if the USU players are half as determined as you, then maybe they have a good chance coming to Neyland, at night, with 103K fans, humid, and win.....I hope they don't, and all kidding aside, UT will have to bring their A game.
 
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