Only Henderson and either Rogers or Tatel seemed remotely interested in the disqualification question. I think the Flynn-sympathetic media made a big deal out of something that was requested by one or two judges.
Four judges (Including Wilkins, who dissented at the panel) seemed openly skeptical of the argument that the district court just has to rubber stamp the government’s decision.
Assuming Rao, Henderson, and Wilkins aren’t changing their minds, that means, I believe, one of the remaining four judges needs to side with Wilkins et al to prevent the mandamus from issuing. Tatel and Rogers seemed focused on other issues I have no idea which way they will go. Srinivasan wrote the case relied on by Flynn, but played things pretty close to his chest. Like Srinivasan, Garland’s questions also focused on the mandamus issue, and while he wasn’t overtly adversarial, his last question did set up Powell to get drilled by the next four judges.
The best issue for Flynn is on the involvement of amicus, which I think the Circuit Court will either discharge or limit with some clear guidance.
I’m still beyond skeptical that Sullivan will develop the facts to build a bulletproof case to deny the motion. Whereas Flynn’s motion to withdraw the plea was subject to nearly unlimited judicial discretion, a denial under 48(a) would require novel recognition of judicial discretion. I think there’s a sound legal argument that the judge should have that discretion, I’ve argued that here and it was also apparent in questions from Judge Millett, but I don’t see how Sullivan will be able to develop facts that will support the argument, absent some whistleblower dropping bombs on DOJ.
So, IMO, The only real question is whether this drags out beyond a Biden victory, forcing Trump to pardon Flynn. That could happen if Flynn appeals an unfavorable circuit court decision to SCOTUS.