Current top 10 coaches in CFB (ON3 rankings)

[deatojl]

For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.

 

[hUTch2002]

I guess the question should be: what is your top ten active College Coaching list? Note: I do not agree with their list.

Yep. While it’s easy to take shots at the list, when you start thinking about it who should be on there that isn’t?

 

[jackaro]

If this were 5 years ago I would agree with ranking Kelly and Swinney where they are but Swinney has fallen off a lot and Kelly has underachieved at LSU. As far as DeBoer goes, it seems they over ranked him based on this season but this might be a good ranking based on his previous work. With DeBoer it is a wait and see thing.

 

[NEO]

Freeman should be 2 behind smart.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I like how @deatojl attacked the question in post #26. Good take.

And I absolutely agree with the core premise: a coach should be judged entirely on what he has accomplished.

Leaving aside for the time being any character flaws that might impact resumes (looking at you Petrino, Kiffin, Schiano, Freeze, and Sarkisian), the rest comes down to two very basic metrics: championships, and win rates.

Set aside conference championships for now, since we're comparing coaches cross-conference. Becomes apples and oranges to try to include those.

So, off the top we can can note there are only three active coaches in all of FBS who have won a national title: Kirby Smart (2), Dabo Swinney (2), and Ryan Day (1). Whatever else you think of those three coaches, their reaching the summit of the sport (two of them twice) means they have to be ranked among the top active coaches in the college game.

And then the second way of measuring objectively, win rate, yields this order:

Kalen DeBoer incl. Div II - 113-16 (.876)*
Ryan Day - 70-10 (.875) - 1 NC
Dan Lanning - 35-6 (.854)
Kirby Smart - 105-19 (.847) - 2 NC
Dabo Swinney - 180-47 (.793) - 2 NC

Kalen DeBoer FBS only - 46-13 (.780)
Marcus Freeman - 33-10 (.767)
Josh Heupel - 65-23 (.739)
Brian Kelly incl. Div II - 292-107-2 (.731)**
Brian Kelly FBS only - 176-70 (.715)

James Franklin - 125-57 (.687)
Steve Sarkisian - 84-52 (.617)

* stats padded by a 5-season, 67-3 record at the Division II level. Looking only at Division I time, Coach DeBoer is 46-13 (.780).
** stats padded by a 13-year, 118-35-2 record at Division II. Considering only Division I tenure, Coach Kelly is 176-70 (.715).

You'll notice I divided them into three rough groupings. The top group includes all three national title winners, and is (more or less) those who have batted near, at, or above the .800 level. That's pretty elite.

The next tranche are those in the .700s, which includes our coach. I'd call this group the precipice. They are poised to win titles. Whether they will or not, only time can tell. But they're well-positioned for it.

The lowest tier, Franklin and Sarkisian, are penalized by relatively unsuccessful earlier stops. For Franklin, that was Vandy. He did well there...for Vandy. Still drags his win percentage down. Similar story for Sarkisian at Washington and USCw: good schools, but his lower win rates at both places make him look worse. If he can stay at Texas for a while, with all its advantages, chances are he will climb beyond Franklin into the .700 club. I don't expect Franklin to improve the same way. So in my eyes, James Franklin is the bottom of this Top 10 list.

You'll also notice that I listed DeBoer and Kelly twice: once including their Division II coaching records, and one isolating just FBS time. They both benefit from the Div II runs, but Kelly just slightly. DeBoer in a bigger way. In spite of his lifetime win rate, I definitely would not call Kalen DeBoer the best coach on this list. I think his FBS-only time is a more accurate reflection of how he stacks up against the others.

Oh, one other note: Lanning and Freeman have pretty anemic resumes thus far: 41 games for Lanning, and 43 for Freeman. One bad season could swing those win rates pretty significantly. So I'd nudge them down a spot or two: promising, but not as proven as the rest.

TL;DR summary: I'd put Smart, Swinney, and Day at the top end of this list. Lanning would drop into group 2 because not as proven. No particular order for group two: Lanning, DeBoer, Heupel, Kelly, and Freeman all floating around in there, with Sarkisian probably soon to join them. And riding at tail end Charlie, maybe not even deserving to be on this list, is Franklin. I like the fella just fine, but his numbers don't support being here. Probably some other guy out there who deserves the spot more (just God please not Kiffin).

Go Vols!

 

[DaddyChad]

Kelly has been there for 1 year, and up until the CFP, pretty much every Ohio State fan wanted Kelly fired.

Ryan Day has a career .875 winning percentage. He's elite.

He plays like four games a year where they have even close to decent talent; he lost half of those. Dude has more talent than any team in the ncaa. Kirby or Saban would stomp every team and it wouldn’t be even close if they had that talent. If not for an expanded field that team doesn’t even make the championship field.