Current top 10 coaches in CFB (ON3 rankings)

#26
#26
For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.
 
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#28
#28
If this were 5 years ago I would agree with ranking Kelly and Swinney where they are but Swinney has fallen off a lot and Kelly has underachieved at LSU. As far as DeBoer goes, it seems they over ranked him based on this season but this might be a good ranking based on his previous work. With DeBoer it is a wait and see thing.
 
#30
#30
I like how @deatojl attacked the question in post #26. Good take.

And I absolutely agree with the core premise: a coach should be judged entirely on what he has accomplished.

Leaving aside for the time being any character flaws that might impact resumes (looking at you Petrino, Kiffin, Schiano, Freeze, and Sarkisian), the rest comes down to two very basic metrics: championships, and win rates.

Set aside conference championships for now, since we're comparing coaches cross-conference. Becomes apples and oranges to try to include those.

So, as deatojl noted, there are only three active coaches in all of FBS who have won a national title: Kirby Smart (2), Dabo Swinney (2), and Ryan Day (1). Whatever else you think of those three coaches, their reaching the summit of the sport (two of them twice) means they have to be ranked among the top active coaches in the college game.

And then the second way of measuring objectively, win rate, yields this order:

Kalen DeBoer incl. Div II - 113-16 (.876)*
Ryan Day - 70-10 (.875) - 1 NC
Dan Lanning - 35-6 (.854)
Kirby Smart - 105-19 (.847) - 2 NC
Dabo Swinney - 180-47 (.793) - 2 NC

Kalen DeBoer FBS only - 46-13 (.780)
Marcus Freeman - 33-10 (.767)
Josh Heupel - 65-23 (.739)
Brian Kelly incl. Div II - 292-107-2 (.731)**
Brian Kelly FBS only - 176-70 (.715)

James Franklin - 125-57 (.687)
Steve Sarkisian - 84-52 (.617)

* stats padded by a 5-season, 67-3 record at the Division II level. Looking only at Division I time, Coach DeBoer is 46-13 (.780).
** stats padded by a 13-year, 118-35-2 record at Division II. Considering only Division I tenure, Coach Kelly is 176-70 (.715).

You'll notice I divided them into three rough groupings. The top group includes all three national title winners, and is (more or less) those who have batted near, at, or above the .800 level. That's pretty elite.

The next tranche are those in the .700s, which includes our coach. I'd call this group the precipice. They are poised to win titles. Whether they will or not, only time can tell. But they're well-positioned for it.

The lowest tier, Franklin and Sarkisian, are penalized by relatively unsuccessful earlier stops. For Franklin, that was Vandy. He did well there...for Vandy. Still drags his win percentage down. Similar story for Sarkisian at Washington and USCw: good schools, but his lower win rates at both places make him look worse. If he can stay at Texas for a while, with all its advantages, chances are he will climb beyond Franklin into the .700 club. I don't expect Franklin to improve the same way. So in my eyes, James Franklin is the bottom of this Top 10 list.

You'll also notice that I listed DeBoer and Kelly twice: once including their Division II coaching records, and one isolating just FBS time. They both benefit from the Div II runs, but Kelly just slightly. DeBoer in a bigger way. In spite of his lifetime win rate, I definitely would not call Kalen DeBoer the best coach on this list. I think his FBS-only time is a more accurate reflection of how he stacks up against the others.

Oh, one other note: Lanning and Freeman have pretty anemic resumes thus far: 41 games for Lanning, and 43 for Freeman. One bad season could swing those win rates pretty significantly. So I'd nudge them down a spot or two: promising, but not as proven as the rest.

TL;DR summary: I'd put Smart, Swinney, and Day at the top end of this list. Lanning would drop into group 2 because not as proven. No particular order for group two: Lanning, DeBoer, Heupel, Kelly, and Freeman all floating around in there, with Sarkisian probably soon to join them. And riding at tail end Charlie, maybe not even deserving to be on this list, is Franklin. I like the fella just fine, but his numbers don't support being here. Probably some other guy out there who deserves the spot more (just God please not Kiffin).

Go Vols!
 
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#31
#31
Carp said:
Kelly has been there for 1 year, and up until the CFP, pretty much every Ohio State fan wanted Kelly fired.

Ryan Day has a career .875 winning percentage. He's elite.
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😂 He plays like four games a year where they have even close to decent talent; he lost half of those. Dude has more talent than any team in the ncaa. Kirby or Saban would stomp every team and it wouldn’t be even close if they had that talent. If not for an expanded field that team doesn’t even make the championship field.
 
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#36
#36
On3 is more kind to us than other outlets. I don't care how high they have deboer or Kelly, they see Heup as a top 10 coach which is probably about where he should be.

They also have two of our '25 signeee as 5 stars

AND

Wiltfong has consistently pointed out that that GMac was the second most coveted QB amongst coaches
 
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#37
#37
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Okay, how many coaches have a better winning percentage and are left off the list? 20+ years of success speaks more than a couple decent years
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I'd probably replace him with Lincoln Riley. The man may be crashing and burning on the left coast since his move to USCw, and he may have run from SEC competition, but he still has a significantly better win percentage (.771) than Kelly.

Go Vols!
 
#38
#38
VFL-82-JP said:
I'd probably replace him with Lincoln Riley. The man may be crashing and burning on the left coast since his move to USCw, and he may have run from SEC competition, but he still has a significantly better win percentage (.771) than Kelly.

Go Vols!
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Kelly built programs though and has done it for longer. Riley took over what was already a top program at OU. Plus Kelly has been much better at LSU than Riley has been at USC.
 
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#39
#39
deatojl said:
For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.
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I can’t find much wrong with your rankings. You used logic and explained well the reasons for your rankings. I would rank Freeman a bit higher, but in truth, I’m probably ranking him higher because I like him. Great post IMO
 
#41
#41
volKano said:
Cant stand him but he has done pretty good at Penn St and look at what Vandy was before and after him.
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Au contraire mon frere. Franklin is 4-20 against top 10 opponents and 13-27 vs. top 25 during his tenure at PSU. I don't think that comes close to qualifying him as a top 10 coach. Heupel is 11-10 vs. top 25 (playing Bama and UGA every year) and he took over a real dumpster fire.
 
#42
#42
deatojl said:
For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.
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I would submit that Kiffin is a better coach than Kelly or Franklin. Franklin has a DISMAL record vs. top 10 and top 25. Kelly's only real success was with Daniels at LSU, and I would submit that any coach in the top 10 not named Kelly would have done much better with that team.
 
#43
#43
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Okay, how many coaches have a better winning percentage and are left off the list? 20+ years of success speaks more than a couple decent years
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He's 25-25 vs. top 25 teams in his entire career. That averages out to about 1.5 games played vs. top 25 teams each year, and that has improved since he got to LSU. Weak schedules padding his winning %.
 
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#44
#44
deatojl said:
For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.
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Heupel hasn't played for a national title.

Your list is pretty good. Except in DeBoer's case (interesting), there's a lot of "what have you done for me lately." Dabo should be higher than 7 and Kelly should be higher than 9. Dabo beat Saban in a national title game...twice. DeBoer wasn't great this year but went 25-3 at Washington and played for a title in 2023. Kelly has played for a title and has made the playoff twice. Lot of recency bias.
 
#45
#45
LAVol1 said:
He's 25-25 vs. top 25 teams in his entire career. That averages out to about 1.5 games played vs. top 25 teams each year, and that has improved since he got to LSU. Weak schedules padding his winning %.
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Going .500 against ranked teams is pretty good, especially over that much time. Like top 10 in the country good. Heupel is 12-14, which is a better record than most coaches. Kelly is actually 36-38 against ranked teams, but if you are around .500 against ranked teams, you are going to be in the top 10-15 of all coaches in the country in winning percentage against ranked teams.
 
#46
#46
LAVol1 said:
I would submit that Kiffin is a better coach than Kelly or Franklin. Franklin has a DISMAL record vs. top 10 and top 25. Kelly's only real success was with Daniels at LSU, and I would submit that any coach in the top 10 not named Kelly would have done much better with that team.
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Kiffin is 11-25 against ranked opponents. There is no metric that says he is better than Kelly. Or Franklin, for that matter.
 
#47
#47
deatojl said:
For me, when ranking the top coaches, you have to start with those who have won a national championship and work down from there. I would have that group ranked like this:
1. Kirby Smart-2 NCs
2. Dabo Swinney-2 NCs
3. Ryan Day-1 NC
Just using Pickell's top 10 list, I would rank the remaining coaches based on what they have accomplished in regard to the resources they have and the situation in which they took over:
4. Josh Heupel-1 playoff appearance in 4 years at UT, 37-15 at UT, 65-23 overall. Took over the most challenging situation, by a large margin, of any of the top 10 coaches. Prior year 3-7 and went 7-6 first year.
5. Steve Sarkisian-2 playoff appearances in 4 years at Texas, 38-17 at Texas, 84-52 overall. Took over a Texas team that went 7-3 the prior year and went 5-7 first year. Top level resources and recruiting area.
6. Dan Lanning-1 playoff appearance in 3 years, 35-6 at Oregon and overall. Took over a team that went 10-4 the prior year and went 10-3 first year.
7. Marcus Freeman-1 playoff appearance in 3 years plus 2021 bowl game, 33-10 at ND and overall with 1 NC appearance. Took over to coach the Fiesta Bowl(loss) after Brian Kelly went 11-1 during regular season, then went 9-4 first full season. Has the two worst losses, by far, of any of these coaches(Marshall, N. Illinois).
8. James Franklin-1 playoff appearance in 11 years at PSU, 101-42 at PSU, 125-57 overall. Took over a PSU team that went 7-5 the prior year, then went 7-6 each of his first two years.
9. Brian Kelly-0 playoff appearances in 3 years at LSU, 3 playoffs and 1 NC game at ND, 29-11 at LSU, 195-73 overall. Took over an LSU team that went 6-7 prior year but was 3 years removed from a NC, then went 10-4 first year(SECCG appearance).
10. Kalen DeBoer-0 playoff appearance in 1 year at Alabama, 1 playoff appearance overall(NC appearance), 9-4 record at Alabama, 46-13 overall. Took over for Nick Saban at Alabama, who was 12-2 with a playoff appearance the prior year and has had the most talent in the country for the last 15 years. Worst Alabama record since Saban's first year, lost to Vandy for the first time in 40 years.

I also find it interesting that Pickell noted in his write up about CJH that he needs to find a way to avoid bad losses but completely skipped over Marcus Freeman's catastrophically bad losses at ND.
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Probably because Freeman just had a team in the national championship, and we got blown out in round 1 on the road because we couldn’t eat Arkansas. That might have something to do with it.

Heupel has objectively achieved less than any other coach you listed.
 
#48
#48
Kelly and DeBoer are way too high on that list. Kelly arguably should not be there at all.

I can only think they are weighting their respective past performance at Notre Dame and Washington, where they did both make the playoffs, Kelly multiple times and I think DeBoer also?

In which case, it should be more weighted to the present IMO. Kelly has greatly under performed at LSU.

As for DeBoer, the author likely didn't factor in predictions of the upcoming season. I know quite a few bama fans predicting 7-5. Deboer could surprise them I suppose, but (fingers crossed) I hope that by December this author really regrets putting Deboer at 5. :)
 
#49
#49
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Kiffin is 11-25 against ranked opponents. There is no metric that says he is better than Kelly. Or Franklin, for that matter.
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Kiffin is at Ole Miss. He has elevated the program dramatically. Has Kelly elevated, or even maintained, the LSU program? Has Franklin elevated the PSU program? Do you think either of them would have fared better at Ole Miss than Kiffin? On the other hand, do you think Kiffin may have fared better at LSU than Kelly or at PSU than Franklin?
 
#50
#50
LAVol1 said:
Kiffin is at Ole Miss. He has elevated the program dramatically. Has Kelly elevated, or even maintained, the LSU program? Has Franklin elevated the PSU program? Do you think either of them would have fared better at Ole Miss than Kiffin? On the other hand, do you think Kiffin may have fared better at LSU than Kelly or at PSU than Franklin?
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Idk, how did Kiffin do at Tennessee and USC? Barely went .500 at Tennessee and then got left at the runway at USC. Was historically bad with the Raiders. Kelly elevated Notre Dame, he elevated Cincinnati, CMU too. Franklin elevated Vanderbilt and elevated Penn State. Those two guys have been successful everywhere they have been. Kiffin most definitely was not. And he isn’t doing any better than Freeze did at Ole Miss really.

You cannot say “Kelly isn’t a top 10 coach because of his record against ranked teams but Kiffin is.” Nonsensical because Kelly’s record against ranked teams is actually pretty good, and Kiffin’s is bad.
 
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