I'm not altogether sure about that. Cal got dumped on after UT blew them away. They promptly came back and beat a middle of the pack Big10 team as impressively as UF beat USM and almost as bad as UF beat UCF.
I was one of the one's who thought UT had a good chance of beating Cal. They hadn't played anyone last year except USC and had lost to them. OTOH, They still had/have good players. Players who've been on the field with Oregon and USC (the only proven teams in the Pac10) and shown up.
You're second paragraph supports my position that Cal isn't really that strong of an opponent. UF's offense "found itself" last year in the off week leading up to the Georgia game. Other than some serious defensive lapses during the South Carolina game (which were fairly uncharacteristic, having occurred only in the Bama game previously, and not in other big games against UT, UGA, LSU, & FSU) the defense performed strongly all year. A LOT of the UF defense returns this year. So when you mentioned that the Cal defense was was weak last year and returned a lot of players, and with history showing the strength of the UF defense last year, most of which is returning, you'd have to give UF a significant nod over the Cal defense of 2006.
I don't think a blow out in either direction is completely out of the question considering that neither team has a proven running game. Only 3 things can happen when you throw the ball... and two of them are bad.
I never said that a blowout was "completely out of the question". I said that I didn't expect one. I could be wrong and UF could hang 21 on UT before UT scores. Or vice versa. But I don't expect it. That's all that I said.
Since you are being objective, who has UF played and what has it really proven?
I'm not saying they aren't a very good, talented team. They may catch UT and make them look bad. But who have they played so far that would justify LG's expectation that UT can't stop their offense?
In all honesty, would UF have been in trouble against USM if the Eagles had any offense at all? They stopped UF on several occasions.
USM has a reputation for being one of those nagging teams that every couple of years upset a major team (IIRC, they've twice upset Bama in the last 6 or 7 years, along with wins over some other ranked teams). USM scored a 45-0 shutout the following team, albeit against MUCH less competiton.
USM was a bowl team last year. UCF was also a bowl team last year. UF held these two teams to a combined 7 points, those being set up by an interception deep in UF territory. I'd say the defense has been pretty stout.
You've acknowledged that you felt that Cal was overrated going into the game, and everyone around the Vol nation seems to believe that the AF game that UT escaped with a "W" was a fluke. So I don't see the argument that the Vols have played VASTLY superior teams to those that UF has played as being valid. A bit superior? Perhaps. Vastly superior? No. Yet UT has given up 48 points against those two teams, and UF has given up 7.
UF has scored 76 points thus far, and has used 2nd & 3rd teamers heavily in those two games or the scoring would likely be considerably higher. UT has been impressive offensively with its 66 points, but I believe that the UF defense is stronger than what UT has seen so far. But you could make a similar argument regarding what Florida will be facing against the UT defense.
As I said, I believe the two teams will play fairly evenly score-wise. I'm hoping that the game doesn't come down to being decided by refs or injuries, or even by a single error (such as a poorly timed turnover). But this is the kind of game that often does come down to being decided by the output of a single play or event. It's what makes you want to watch every play until the end of the game.
When you strip away all of the numbers that I work with to calculate my pool picks, it really boils down to my believing that the UF defense is slightly more capable of disrupting the UT offense than vice versa. Thus the 1 point margin that the calculations came up with.
Again, I mentioned a 1 point margin. Do you really believe that you can justify this game being touted as not being a toss-up? How?