Do we open as favorites against Florida? (Updated, opens at UF-1, moves to UT-3)

#76
#76
@DannySheridan1: CFB lines: FSU 37, Stanford 1, Auburn 9, Okl 5, Fla-Tenn even, Ala 6, Texas A& M Even (Miss State), Mich St 8
 
#78
#78
TAF said:
Not a gambler...but...usually don't you get a gift of 7 points for being at home? So does that mean Vegas is saying a swing of 8 points, at this stage?
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No - every school has a different home field advantage for line setters. Phil Steele has our HFA at 4 points.
 
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#92
#92
Christian Lowe said:
It's -1.5 tennessee now.
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I think you may have this backwards. Everything I am seeing is UT +1.5, which I don't agree with since it is in Knoxville. I think more money will be laid down on UT as the game approaches which will swing this line the other way by a 2-4 pts. If I was a betting man, which I am, I am loving this line right now.
 
#94
#94
LawnGnome said:
Then I bet you're also loving the Bama-Ole Miss line. That's free money right there.
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LOL...I was a little surprised with Bama -4.5 and yes, I am liking it right now. Ole Miss has an unreal, nasty defense but they also have Bo. I think Bama will open this one up late and cover
 
#96
#96
KBVol said:
Doesn't appear to matter in the Florida series. We've had better teams many times in the last 25 years and still lost. I'm sure Vegas will have Florida favored as they should.
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First, find a time when we've had "better" teams. They typically, at least over your arbitrarily chosen time period, out recruit us. This is due to their proximity to elite talent alone.

I think you can look at historical rivals recruiting back to 2002 for proof.


Next, define "better." If your thesis is correct, how does one team consistently lose over a 25 year span with "better" Teams?

They don't.

Since 2002 I can't find a four year period where UT out recruits Florida. That means that considering the win rate of 70% that talent predictions generate, Tennessee could expect about 3 wins a decade, give or take. Like a coin flip, randomness has an effect and a perfect 70/30 distribution is unlikely.

If you want to put this in perspective, look no further that UT and Vanderbilt. The history is one that illustrates long term talent advantages. It isn't magic, or psychology, it is the reality that better players make a considerable difference.

When we win on Saturday (if we win) it will be a combination of how home field advantage and coaching can overcome bad coaching with considerable talent. Make no mistake, this Florida roster could be great but their performance is an exception and a reflection of the rare times when coaching matters more than talent.
 
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#97
#97
VolinArizona said:
The lines aren't trying to predict outcomes.
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That statement confuses me.

Lines are, at least practically, an acknowledgement that outcomes are predictable enough that betting straight winners/losers would be prohibitive to the house. So yes, when Vegas pushes a line it is a tacit acknowledgement that they are picking winners.

The house moves that line as a reaction to money changing hands but it starts as a rough prediction of outcome and an enticement to bet.

I am oversimplifying many things and this is just my take.
 
#100
#100
skasper06 said:
Anyone think so? I'm gonna go on a limb and say UT is a 2.5 point favorite.
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Let's see. Georgia opened as 19 point favorites and won by 3. I hope this goes the same way with Florida opening as 1 point favorites,they should lose by 15 based on the Georgia game logic.
 
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