Doug's NCAAF Betting Conquest

#53
#53
Added:

Arizona State (-10.5) @ Colorado

Bowling Green (-5) @ Florida International

Missouri (-14) @ New Mexico

UAB (+17.5) @ Georgia
 
#55
#55
5-6-2 this weekend; New Mexico scored a TD with :27 left to kill my Missouri pick and a winning weekend. Still, thought I'd have at least 8 right ... need to check myself.

YTD: 20-11-2
 
#56
#56
I went 9-8 on my spread pick'ems at Yahoo!... I switched to UAB +17 at the last second... blah.
 
#57
#57
virginia losing to western michigan didnt help me much, i mean i know virginia is bad but western michigan? on the plus side, the cowboys covered tonight.
 
#58
#58
emainvol said:
virginia losing to western michigan didnt help me much, i mean i know virginia is bad but western michigan? on the plus side, the cowboys covered tonight.
Click to expand...

I actually was this |-| close to picking W. Michigan. Pooned out.
 
#59
#59
yeah, my first inclination was to stay away from that game completely, too bad i didn't.

another plus, took the jags -3 in the second half for 1.5 to 1 on my money last night, and in a stroke of genius about 5 minutes before second half kickoff took them -7.5 for 6.5 to 1 on my money. needless to say, i was happy with the final score, and rashean mathis is my hero.
 
#60
#60
For the 9/23 weekend, I have 5 bets so far, will probably add 2-3 more.

Central Michigan (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan

USC (-22) @ Arizona

Utah (-7) @ San Diego State

Boston College (-7) @ NC State

Air Force (PK) @ Wyoming

Yes, all road teams. Scary, but we'll see how it works.
 
#61
#61
VolinArizona said:
For the 9/23 weekend, I have 5 bets so far, will probably add 2-3 more.

Central Michigan (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan

USC (-22) @ Arizona

Utah (-7) @ San Diego State

Boston College (-7) @ NC State

Air Force (PK) @ Wyoming

Yes, all road teams. Scary, but we'll see how it works.
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i like your picks, that usc line is moving up a lot though seems kinda shaky. brave man with bc, i wont touch it after last week. nc state is definitely not as good as byu though and i can see bc wanting to end that one early. don't you love how i critique you every time you do this?

on a different note, i am catching fire.
 
#62
#62
what do you think about the over in the michigan st/notre dame game. i realize that 59 is high, but those teams are bound to both put up huge offensive numbers.
 
#63
#63
emainvol said:
i like your picks, that usc line is moving up a lot though seems kinda shaky. brave man with bc, i wont touch it after last week. nc state is definitely not as good as byu though and i can see bc wanting to end that one early. don't you love how i critique you every time you do this?

on a different note, i am catching fire.
Click to expand...

Dude, I love that you give me your thoughts on the bets. It's fun to talk to you about them!
 
#64
#64
emainvol said:
what do you think about the over in the michigan st/notre dame game. i realize that 59 is high, but those teams are bound to both put up huge offensive numbers.
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59 is high, sure, but maybe not for these offenses.

The Domers put 21 on Michigan, but 7 was from an INT return for a TD. The Spartans don't have the speed Michigan does, but neither does ND. I imagine ND puts up 28-31, so if I think ND wins, MSU would score at most 27-30, which at best would have me beat the over by 2. If you agree with my prediction for the Irish points, but feel MSU wins, you have a good bet.

If you disagree with the prediction of points, I definitely want to hear it, because I am now interested in the over. :)
 
#65
#65
VolinArizona said:
59 is high, sure, but maybe not for these offenses.

The Domers put 21 on Michigan, but 7 was from an INT return for a TD. The Spartans don't have the speed Michigan does, but neither does ND. I imagine ND puts up 28-31, so if I think ND wins, MSU would score at most 27-30, which at best would have me beat the over by 2. If you agree with my prediction for the Irish points, but feel MSU wins, you have a good bet.

If you disagree with the prediction of points, I definitely want to hear it, because I am now interested in the over. :)
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michigan st. put 38 up on what i feel is a pretty good pitt defense, but on the other hand they gave up 23 to a subpar p offense. i realize any defense can have an off day, and they showed some flashes of good defense at certain points in the game, but I think Weis will have the irish ready to go out and score a lot.

Notre Dame just gave up a lot of points to an offense that has it's strong points, but also it's weak ones. I think you have to say they come out playing better, but against a better Mich St. offense probably allow at least 28.

I personally think the over is a great bet, I can see this game being somewhere in the neighborhood of 38-31 in favor of the domers, IF Michigan St. can get a couple of breaks on the defensive end. If they can't, it may be an offensive spectacle.
 
#66
#66
It's easier for me to pick sides than totals. With a 59 point total it's hard to predict if both defenses will show up. I do believe Notre Dame's offense(because of Charlie Weiss) will show up and cover the 4 and than some.
 
#68
#68
Hey I don't mean to hijack your thread here but I have decided to start getting in on some action too and was curious if you would like to see my plays from week to week ? If so let me know and I will post them. Thanks
 
#69
#69
jaybird_1981 said:
Hey I don't mean to hijack your thread here but I have decided to start getting in on some action too and was curious if you would like to see my plays from week to week ? If so let me know and I will post them. Thanks
Click to expand...

That'd be awesome!
 
#70
#70
Cool, well here is what I settled on my first week.

Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan St.

Miss. St. (+10) @ UAB

USF (+6) @ Kansas

Air Force (+1) @ Wyoming

Central Michigan (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan

Tulsa (+4.5) @ Navy

NFL

Chicago @ Minnesota (+4)

Atlanta (-4) @ New Orleans

Well thats my first week lets see how it goes.
 
#71
#71
jaybird_1981 said:
Cool, well here is what I settled on my first week.

Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan St.

Miss. St. (+10) @ UAB

USF (+6) @ Kansas

Air Force (+1) @ Wyoming

Central Michigan (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan

Tulsa (+4.5) @ Navy

NFL

Chicago @ Minnesota (+4)

Atlanta (-4) @ New Orleans

Well thats my first week lets see how it goes.
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good picks, but i still think new orleans crushes atlanta in the first game back in the superdome since katrina. hollywood endings happen every now and again.

taking g tech -17 tonight, i think virginia is that bad
 
#72
#72
jaybird_1981 said:
Cool, well here is what I settled on my first week.

Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan St.

Miss. St. (+10) @ UAB

USF (+6) @ Kansas

Air Force (+1) @ Wyoming

Central Michigan (-4.5) @ Eastern Michigan

Tulsa (+4.5) @ Navy

NFL

Chicago @ Minnesota (+4)

Atlanta (-4) @ New Orleans

Well thats my first week lets see how it goes.
Click to expand...


I'm playing N.D. and Miss. St. also. I'm not in the mob(not yet anyway, still trying) so I stay away from pro ball.
 
#73
#73
I actually use 3 power ratings as early indicators on where lines should be, then I look at the actual lines. When I find some gross differences, I then research those teams.

2 of 3 had UAB as 13 point winners and another had MSU as a 6 point loser, which I interpret as a game that I have no confidence in picking. However, I actually lean towards UAB in that one.

I do love the ND pick. The public is jumping off the ND bandwagon, but Michigan did score TWO touchdowns on defense, and ND one on defense. I watched the game, and while ND was clearly outclassed, Michigan State is nowhere near the Wolverines.

I expect a 31-24 win for ND.

I also love the Tulsa pick. I won't play it myself, but I had it on my radar.
 
#74
#74
VolinArizona said:
I actually use 3 power ratings as early indicators on where lines should be, then I look at the actual lines. When I find some gross differences, I then research those teams.

2 of 3 had UAB as 13 point winners and another had MSU as a 6 point loser, which I interpret as a game that I have no confidence in picking. However, I actually lean towards UAB in that one.

I do love the ND pick. The public is jumping off the ND bandwagon, but Michigan did score TWO touchdowns on defense, and ND one on defense. I watched the game, and while ND was clearly outclassed, Michigan State is nowhere near the Wolverines.

I expect a 31-24 win for ND.

I also love the Tulsa pick. I won't play it myself, but I had it on my radar.
Click to expand...

I have to admit I have drank the Tulsa kool-aid, and even though that big loss to BYU caused me to hesitate I still like this game.

And heres my thinking on the UAB game, UAB has scored 17, 17, and 0 in their three games this year. And I believe we all know that MSU has a pretty decent defense so covering 10 should be attainable since I dont see many points being scored here. Also I love that they moved Omarr Conner back to QB I think that at least gives them an opportunity to have some explosiveness.:thumbsup:
 
#75
#75
i'm sticking to my prediction of somewhere in the neighborhood of 69 points total in the Notre Dame game.

Georgia Tech is looking good to win me some money right now.

Kids, I'm on fire, this could be a huge weekend for me.
 
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