Doug's NCAAF Betting Conquest

#202
#202
Found some lines that feel too good, so hopefully I don't crash and burn. All for 1 unit, YTD: 91-78 +27 units

UTEP (+2.5) @ Marshall
--I like Marshall, but UTEP seems to be the better team. The two have comparable stats, but UTEP has a slight margin on offense. UTEP is going to take advantage of Marshall's terrible coverage put up some points. Marshall wins games by running the ball, and they'll have some success. However, Marshall turns the ball over far more than the Miners do, and I think that swings this game.

Utah (-1) @ Air Force
--1 point? Air Force has played 2 good games this season, and they were in September. I said I'd never bet on Utah in 2006 again, but this seems juicy to me. Utah plays the run rather well, and while Air Force will STILL run the ball 0978908 times, Utah will be able to run on USAFA and throw some too. Utah has a better offense and a better defense, plus, USAFA has only covered once at home. I see Utah 26-20 at worst (for us, I mean
laugh.gif
).

Virginia Tech (-1.5) @ Wake Forest
--Am I crazy for STILL not believing in the Deacons? I just can't. I have huge faith in them as big dogs, but I realllllllllllly think VT could blow the doors off. VT's offense is just a hair better than Wake's O, but VT's defense outclasses WF's by a ton. Neither team will generate a lot of rushing attack, so passing games could decide this one. With VT only allowing 127 yards per game in the air, combined with Wake's reliance on the run game (153 rypg compared to 141 pypg), I see VT winning this game in the area of 21-13 ... or more!

Connecticut (+2) @ Syracuse
--Loved it when I clicked it, feel worse now. I think I may have gotten a better line later this week, but I think UConn wins this outright enough for value. Syracuse's run defense is awful, and UConn has a nice run attack. While the Huskies also can't stop the run, the Orangemen don't run it very well anyway. Connecticut's offense outgains Syracuse's offense by almost 80 yards a game, and their defense holds opponents to almost 85 yards less per game than Syracuse. That's 165 yards that Connecticut is better. I know never to base a play just on this, but Connecticut has to be feeling confident after last week's come from behind victory. I don't think they have a letdown and win outright in Syracuse 27-17.

Central Michigan (-3.5) @ N. Illinois
--Wanted a better linem but went ahead and took this one. CMU is the class of the MAC this season, and NIU looks worse and worse and worse. While the stats say Wolfe will have a good game, just remember that Toledo's rush defense is about 20 yards WORSE than CMU's on average, so I think NIU may have trouble running the ball this week. CMU is going to air it out all day and rack up tons of yards in the air. CMU has a better O and D than NIU, and with momentum heavily in CMU's favor, I like them to win 30-20.
 
#205
#205
VolinArizona said:
Found some lines that feel too good, so hopefully I don't crash and burn. All for 1 unit, YTD: 91-78 +27 units

UTEP (+2.5) @ Marshall
--I like Marshall, but UTEP seems to be the better team. The two have comparable stats, but UTEP has a slight margin on offense. UTEP is going to take advantage of Marshall's terrible coverage put up some points. Marshall wins games by running the ball, and they'll have some success. However, Marshall turns the ball over far more than the Miners do, and I think that swings this game.

Utah (-1) @ Air Force
--1 point? Air Force has played 2 good games this season, and they were in September. I said I'd never bet on Utah in 2006 again, but this seems juicy to me. Utah plays the run rather well, and while Air Force will STILL run the ball 0978908 times, Utah will be able to run on USAFA and throw some too. Utah has a better offense and a better defense, plus, USAFA has only covered once at home. I see Utah 26-20 at worst (for us, I mean
laugh.gif
).

Virginia Tech (-1.5) @ Wake Forest
--Am I crazy for STILL not believing in the Deacons? I just can't. I have huge faith in them as big dogs, but I realllllllllllly think VT could blow the doors off. VT's offense is just a hair better than Wake's O, but VT's defense outclasses WF's by a ton. Neither team will generate a lot of rushing attack, so passing games could decide this one. With VT only allowing 127 yards per game in the air, combined with Wake's reliance on the run game (153 rypg compared to 141 pypg), I see VT winning this game in the area of 21-13 ... or more!

Connecticut (+2) @ Syracuse
--Loved it when I clicked it, feel worse now. I think I may have gotten a better line later this week, but I think UConn wins this outright enough for value. Syracuse's run defense is awful, and UConn has a nice run attack. While the Huskies also can't stop the run, the Orangemen don't run it very well anyway. Connecticut's offense outgains Syracuse's offense by almost 80 yards a game, and their defense holds opponents to almost 85 yards less per game than Syracuse. That's 165 yards that Connecticut is better. I know never to base a play just on this, but Connecticut has to be feeling confident after last week's come from behind victory. I don't think they have a letdown and win outright in Syracuse 27-17.

Central Michigan (-3.5) @ N. Illinois
--Wanted a better linem but went ahead and took this one. CMU is the class of the MAC this season, and NIU looks worse and worse and worse. While the stats say Wolfe will have a good game, just remember that Toledo's rush defense is about 20 yards WORSE than CMU's on average, so I think NIU may have trouble running the ball this week. CMU is going to air it out all day and rack up tons of yards in the air. CMU has a better O and D than NIU, and with momentum heavily in CMU's favor, I like them to win 30-20.
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I try to stay away from UTEP but they should win I wouldn't bet on it though :p . And I don't like the UConn game much at all they just seem to have a rough time on the road. I do love the other three games though I am also on them.

I also like

Iowa (+3) @ Minnesota
Illinois (-3) @ Northwestern
Tulsa (-6) @ SMU
 
#206
#206
Early games on my work parlay 5 and parlay 9 are:

Arkansas - 14 at Miss. State - Arkansas needs a big win to help them in the BCS and they are playing a truly abysmal rush defense - I can't see Arky not killing them.

Ole Miss +27.5 at LSU - In the SEC trying to cover that spread is hard on anyone. I don't think Ole Miss are world beaters but I think they do enough to cover that spread.

San Jose St. +24 at Hawaii - SJS nearly pulled out a win VS Boise St. last week and they aren't a horrible team. Hawaii can't keep that offensive onslaught up.

Iowa +3 at Minnesota - Minnesota has played well the past couple of weeks and I see them covering against Iowa.

I'm still researching quite a few other games though.
 
#209
#209
The under for the game right before it started was 44.5. Had I known the field conditions I would have rode at least $50-$100 on that under - and made some decent change.
 
#210
#210
DownNDirty said:
The under for the game right before it started was 44.5. Had I known the field conditions I would have rode at least $50-$100 on that under - and made some decent change.
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I loved the game under of 48 when I did my handicapping earlier this week. I didn't look to bet it until before the game, saw 44.5 and stayed off. I didn't know about the weather until I turned the game on. :(

Need to add in weather checks to my process.
 
#211
#211
i hit on a two game ncaab parlay last night ( i have come to share your feelings on parlays, but i still take a two game every now and then)

I really like UCLA -12.5 last night (it was awful close to not happening)
but how in the world was Georgetown +1 @ Vandy?
 
#212
#212
At this time of year that's something I'm definitely going to start factoring in. I'm going to check the weekend forecast before I place any bets this week. There are some really high lines to cover from some northern teams - and if the weather is foul - I'll jump all over the underdogs in those games.
 
#213
#213
ViA, what do you think about the UL-Monroe/Kentucky game, I usually stray away from spreads as big as 20, but I think Kentucky has the firepower to get it done.
 
#214
#214
Kentucky can score but in my parlay game I'm staying away from that one. LA-Monroe isn't a great team but they've played some close games.

at Kansas lost 21-19
at Troy (4-0 in conference, 5-4 overall) lost 24-19
VS MTSU (6-0 conference, 7-3 overall) lost 35-21

But, Bama did beat them 41-7 and ARKY beat them 44-10.

The last game they played though they won 35-0 against a horrible Florida International team - but it was still a big win.

I'm not playing that game - but I'm far from an expert.
 
#215
#215
emainvol said:
ViA, what do you think about the UL-Monroe/Kentucky game, I usually stray away from spreads as big as 20, but I think Kentucky has the firepower to get it done.
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Well Monroe is an awful team so if I bet on it I would go with UK. I think they win big.
 
#216
#216
emainvol said:
i hit on a two game ncaab parlay last night ( i have come to share your feelings on parlays, but i still take a two game every now and then)

I really like UCLA -12.5 last night (it was awful close to not happening)
but how in the world was Georgetown +1 @ Vandy?
Click to expand...


Yeah I got in on the Georgetown game and another crazy one was Kansas St. +2 @ Rutgers. Those two were very easy money. Tonight I like Texas +4 @ Michigan St.
 
#217
#217
I reallllllllly like Kentucky -19.5, but might not play it at -20. I mean, I really think the Cats KILL ULM and I also like the over.

Alabama beat ULM 41-7 and I think Kentucky's O is better than the Tide's, but their defense isn't nearly as good. I could see a 49-20 game.
 
#218
#218
And I think I will start posting some NCAAB games after this weekend when football winds down a small bit.
 
#221
#221
jaybird_1981 said:
Yeah I got in on the Georgetown game and another crazy one was Kansas St. +2 @ Rutgers. Those two were very easy money. Tonight I like Texas +4 @ Michigan St.
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yeah i thought about adding k state, i like them with huggins. i took troy straight up tonight, they have probably played better basketball against better opponents than rhode island has, but rhode island certainly knows how to score and it's only two games into the season, so i am hoping my hunch is right.
 
#222
#222
and that texas game is going to come down to the wire, at least it looks like it will. i strayed away from it today.
 
#224
#224
yeah, i just saw the score, that's a huge swing, good call on texas +4. my troy game hit, i am pretty happy about that one.
 
#225
#225
Here's the picks I made at work for my two parlay cards. I'll do some other betting on Bowman's probably on a few of these games too. If I hit the 5 it's worth $100 and 9 is worth $1,000.

PARLAY 5:

12:00 PM MIAMI –3 AT VIRGINIA
2:30 PM ARKANSAS –14 AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
3:00 PM EAST CAROLINA –3 AT RICE
8:00 PM OLE MISS +27 AT LSU
11:00 PM SAN JOSE ST +24 AT HAWAII

PARLAY 9:

12:00 PM MIAMI – 3 AT VIRGINIA
12:00 PM IOWA +3 AT MINNESOTA
12:00 PM MARYLAND +7 AT BOSTON COLLEGE
2:30 PM ARMY +36 AT NOTRE DAME
2:30 PM ARKANSAS – 14 AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
3:30 PM KANSAS STATE +3 AT KANSAS
4:00 PM NEW MEXICO+24 AT BYU
7:30 PM UTAH EVEN AT AIR FORCE
7:45 PM RUTGERS –7 AT CINCINNATI
 
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