Doug's NCAAF Betting Conquest

#152
#152
MTSU (-3.5) @ UL-Monroe
--Was hoping this would go lower. MTSU looks like one of the 2 best teams in the Sun Belt and ULM looks to be one of the worst 6 teams in the country. MTSU should win by 10 plus.

Alabama @ Tennessee O43.5
--This is a complete flip from last season. Last year's game totalled (sp?) 9 points, but the teams have both had average defenses so far, and both passing attacks are good. Tennessee should hit 30+ and Alabama will hit at least 20. I see a 34-20 game here.

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt U41
--South Carolina hasn't scored well on the road, and Vandy's D is better than normal. Newton could ruin the under if he runs a lot, but I expect Vandy LB J. Goff (love this kid) to be able to contain him as a spy. I see a 5-6 point value here, with a SC win 21-13 game.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson O46.5
--GT's offense has looked very good recently, and Clemson's stats on both sides have been helped by playing numerous patsies. Still, Clemson will score. I actually feel like there is a strong strong value here. Clemson gave up 34 to BC and GT is comparable, IMO. GT gave up 27 to VT and 23 to Maryland, and Clemson is better than both on offense. I see a 31-24 game or thereabouts.

Boston College @ Florida State O41.5
--BC has a good offense and even though Ryan is hobbling, I think he'll still guide them to 20-24 points. FSU's offense has looked better against the weaker defenses, but don't expect a huge dropoff: BC isn't great on defense either. I really don't know who's going to win this game, but a close 27-24 game could happen, and while I didn't consider this as even more value, but I do now: this game could very well be an OT game.

All 1 unit, except Alabama/Tennessee OVER which is 2 units.
 
#155
#155
Early lines up for the 10/28 weekend, I did my big 5 unit plays on 3 games so far.

Tennessee (-6) @ South Carolina

Kentucky (+2.5) @ Mississippi State WIN

Connecticut @ Rutgers (-16.5)
 
#156
#156
VolinArizona said:
Early lines up for the 10/28 weekend, I did my big 5 unit plays on 3 games so far.

Tennessee (-6) @ South Carolina

Kentucky (+2.5) @ Mississippi State

Connecticut @ Rutgers (-16.5)
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I can say with absolutely certainty that I don't like any of those three.
 
#157
#157
hatvol96 said:
I can say with absolutely certainty that I don't like any of those three.
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Kentucky +2.5 was a gift. The line has already moved to Kentucky -2.5.

Tennessee, on paper, which is what we base picks on anyway, should beat S. Carolina by 10 at least.

Rutgers' running game is close to West Virginia's, and the Knights have a better D. UConn played their butts off and I don't see them being inspired this week.
 
#158
#158
VolinArizona said:
Kentucky +2.5 was a gift. The line has already moved to Kentucky -2.5.

Tennessee, on paper, which is what we base picks on anyway, should beat S. Carolina by 10 at least.

Rutgers' running game is close to West Virginia's, and the Knights have a better D. UConn played their butts off and I don't see them being inspired this week.
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On the Kentucky pick, I can't think of any surer recipe for disaster than being on the side of the general betting public.

Why should UT beat South Carolina worse than Auburn did?

Rutgers offense scores much more methodically than WVU. Also, they'll have a letdown after going to Pitt.
 
#159
#159
hatvol96 said:
On the Kentucky pick, I can't think of any surer recipe for disaster than being on the side of the general betting public.

Why should UT beat South Carolina worse than Auburn did?

Rutgers offense scores much more methodically than WVU. Also, they'll have a letdown after going to Pitt.
Click to expand...

The Kentucky line moved within an hour of the line opening up Sunday evening. I doubt the general betting public is sitting around refreshing the page to get the lines as newborns.

UT and Auburn are completely different teams. If the rationale of Team A beat Team B by X points, so Team C will win by Y points, then it'd be too easy to be a winner.

I think Connecticut has a bit of a letdown, too. They are reallllly bad against the run. Awful. They played their best defensive half of the season last week and I don't think they have any gas in the tank.

Obviously all 3 could end up being wrong, but I see value.
 
#160
#160
VolinArizona said:
The Kentucky line moved within an hour of the line opening up Sunday evening. I doubt the general betting public is sitting around refreshing the page to get the lines as newborns.

UT and Auburn are completely different teams. If the rationale of Team A beat Team B by X points, so Team C will win by Y points, then it'd be too easy to be a winner.

I think Connecticut has a bit of a letdown, too. They are reallllly bad against the run. Awful. They played their best defensive half of the season last week and I don't think they have any gas in the tank.

Obviously all 3 could end up being wrong, but I see value.
Click to expand...
There's much more value in Missouri over Oklahoma.
 
#163
#163
Tennessee (-3.5) @ South Carolina 2 units

Wake Forest (-8.5) @ North Carolina LOSS

Florida State @ Maryland (+4.5)

Northwestern @ Michigan U47 5 units WIN

Vanderbilt (-9) @ Duke WIN

Oklahoma @ Missouri O45 LOSS

USC (-11) @ Oregon State LOSS

Tennessee @ South Carolina O43.5

Wyoming @ TCU U38
 
#166
#166
hatvol96 said:
Solid day. Good work.
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Funny thing is, Tennessee, it could be argued, was the wrong side to pick. We were up 14, but we were outgained by 70 yards. In terms of SU wins, that doesn't matter, but for sports betting analysis, it does.

I felt the OU/Missou over was the right side, but Missou got stuffed 4 times at the 1, so that changed the strategies for the coaches.

Nebraska and USC were the only 1 clear bad plays, IMO.

Anyway, thanks for the kind words. :)
 
#167
#167
One early play for the 11/4 weekend. I missed the lines when they came out.

Boston College (-3.5) @ Wake Forest
 
#170
#170
Added for 1 unit each:

Nevada (-10) @ Idaho

Arkansas (-2.5) @ South Carolina

Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ South Florida
 
#171
#171
Added for 1 unit each:

Georgia @ Kentucky O49.5)

USC @ Stanford U47

North Carolina @ Notre Dame O52

Mississippi State @ Alabama O39

Added for 2 units:

Maryland (+19.5) @ Clemson
 
#173
#173
GAVol said:
I'll be interested to see how these turn out for you. With those offenses, I'd be nervous on both of them.
Click to expand...

It's strange. Kentucky and Miss State have the two higher scoring offenses there. I think the MSU/Bama bet is easy money, but ya never know.
 
#175
#175
Added for 1 unit:

Navy @ Duke U47.5

S. Miss @ Memphis O46

Added for 5 units:

Northwestern @ Iowa U45.5
 
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