Down the Stretch

[calban]

Both teams are capable of smacking us, or no showing. A &M won in Rupp, but then lost like their next 4, explain that? Arkansas is a talented team, and playing in Fayetteville can be tough. BJ Young is a great player, future NBA draft pick, and has the potential to go off. However, if we can shut him down our chances of winning that game really go up.

This game is huge for Tennessee IMO. Not an easy game, and won't be favored, but it's a team they can beat. Win this and you're nipping at the heels of Bama in thr conference standings. Ideally, Arkansas smacks Bama tomorrow in triple OT, and we beat Arkansas Saturday.

I picked Arky as our first road win earlier in the season. that was before they showed any signs of being able to play defense.
I still think the game is winnable.
They don't play well ugly.
Keep the game in the 50s and make them play our game.
Keep turnovers to 12 or less.
Lopez: practice practice practice against the press.
Attack the glass.
Dominate the offensive boards.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I picked Arky as our first road win earlier in the season. that was before they showed any signs of being able to play defense.
I still think the game is winnable.
They don't play well ugly.
Keep the game in the 50s and make them play our game.
Keep turnovers to 12 or less.
Lopez: practice practice practice against the press.
Attack the glass.
Dominate the offensive boards.

Agree with it all. Very big chance here for Tennessee, win this and youve got a lot of momentum.

 

[Shaun1985]

Not trying to be negative but I don't see UT making the tournament. First, last year and this year isn't even fair to compare. The SEC is watered down, Outside of Florida, Ole Miss and Mizzou, Kentucky is the only team I see that's "bubblish" to even plunge over into the field. Why on earth would the NCAA take more than 4 SEC teams? And even if they do, if Tennessee don't beat a Florida, a Kentucky or a Mizzou, what makes them better than Alabama? I think the chips will fall how they will during the regular season. I don't see victories over any team projected into the field and we'd need a conference tournament title to go dancing IMO. I hate it but I said before the season, we were competing with Bama and my dark horse, Ole Miss. I didn't see them being nearly as good as they were and think it's about time for the wheels to fall off a little but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

what makes them better than Alabama? I don't see victories over any team projected into the field

what makes us better than Bama? If we finish with exact same records resumes aren't even close, they have some absolutely horrible losses. If you look at RPIforecast they give RPI projections do possible final record, according to them our RPI is higher than Bama given we have the same record. Add in the horrible losses they have and we don't, plus the great win we have they don't, and there's a big difference between the 2 resumes.

You don't see victories over any teams projected in the tourney? Wichita State...

 

[bigsteve13]

Not trying to be negative but I don't see UT making the tournament. First, last year and this year isn't even fair to compare. The SEC is watered down, Outside of Florida, Ole Miss and Mizzou, Kentucky is the only team I see that's "bubblish" to even plunge over into the field. Why on earth would the NCAA take more than 4 SEC teams? And even if they do, if Tennessee don't beat a Florida, a Kentucky or a Mizzou, what makes them better than Alabama? I think the chips will fall how they will during the regular season. I don't see victories over any team projected into the field and we'd need a conference tournament title to go dancing IMO. I hate it but I said before the season, we were competing with Bama and my dark horse, Ole Miss. I didn't see them being nearly as good as they were and think it's about time for the wheels to fall off a little but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

As compared to last year, I believe our RPI is stronger, we don't have those 3 BAD losses that we suffered early last season and we do have a quality win against Wichita State which won't be enough, but if we can pull just one win off against Kentucky, Mizzou, or Florida and win a couple in the SEC tourney, I don't think it's unreasonable to think we can be in. And yes, that was the longest run on sentence in the history of the English language.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

As compared to last year, I believe our RPI is stronger, we don't have those 3 BAD losses that we suffered early last season and we do have a quality win against Wichita State which won't be enough, but if we can pull just one win off against Kentucky, Mizzou, or Florida and win a couple in the SEC tourney, I don't think it's unreasonable to think we can be in. And yes, that was the longest run on sentence in the history of the English language.

RPI today: 78
This date last year: 144

 

[zansdad]

by my rough math, going 4-0 over the next 4 games would move UT's RPI to about 50 (without taking into SOS changes). going 3-1 with a loss at Arkansas would move UT to about 70 (again without taking into account SOS changes). Winning 1 extra road game in this stretch would move UT firmly back onto the NCAA tourney bubble.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

by my rough math, going 4-0 over the next 4 games would move UT's RPI to about 50 (without taking into SOS changes). going 3-1 with a loss at Arkansas would move UT to about 70 (again without taking into account SOS changes). Winning 1 extra road game in this stretch would move UT firmly back onto the NCAA tourney bubble.

Win Saturday and I think we go 4-0, lose Saturday and probably 2-2. I see Saturday as a chance at a momentum builder, win that and you've got a great chance to put your name back into the discussion.

Win Saturday probably moves them to around 64?

 

[zansdad]

Win Saturday and I think we go 4-0, lose Saturday and probably 2-2. I see Saturday as a chance at a momentum builder, win that and you've got a great chance to put your name back into the discussion.

Win Saturday probably moves them to around 64?

I don't think it goes that high. I get about 70 without taking SOS changes into account. Arkansas is just 12-7 and an RPI around 100, so neither of those are going to really move the needle much. I figure a road win against a team with a average record is worth 8-9 spots. Jumping 15 for beating a middle of the pack team seems a bit of stretch.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I don't think it goes that high. I get about 70 without taking SOS changes into account. Arkansas is just 12-7 and an RPI around 100, so neither of those are going to really move the needle much. I figure a road win against a team with a average record is worth 8-9 spots. Jumping 15 for beating a middle of the pack team seems a bit of stretch.

I'm too damn optimistic lol.

 

[OrangeBalls]

According to rpiforecast.com, UT has a 2.04% chance of winning 20 regular season games. I've seen nothing to think that we are a NCAA team. Decent/good team at home, yet to win on the road. We're going to finish in the 15-18 win range.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-8 28.5 0.02%
21-9 38.9 0.23%
20-10 48.2 2.04%
19-11 57.5 7.32%
18-12 68.2 16.06%
17-13 80.2 24.41%
16-14 93.8 23.36%
15-15 109.7 16.92%
14-16 127.5 7.31%
13-17 146.8 1.97%
12-18 166.8 0.29%
11-19 182.3 0.06%

 

[bleedingTNorange]

According to rpiforecast.com, UT has a 2.04% chance of winning 20 regular season games. I've seen nothing to think that we are a NCAA team. Decent/good team at home, yet to win on the road. We're going to finish in the 15-18 win range.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

If we finish at 18 wins that'll give hope. 2 wins at the SECT and we might hear our name called. 17 wins and 2 wins at the SECT may even get us in.

Saturday is huge. Chance for a road win, will really give some confidence and build some momentum heading into some very winnable games.

 

[OrangeBalls]

If we finish at 18 wins that'll give hope. 2 wins at the SECT and we might hear our name called.

Saturday is huge. Chance for a road win, will really give some confidence and build some momentum heading into some very winnable games.

I edited and posted the entire probability. Our best probability is in the 16-17 win range. If we're going to get above that we can't lose games like Sat.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I edited and posted the entire probability. Our best probability is in the 16-17 win range. If we're going to get above that we can't lose games like Sat.

I agree, that's why I think it's huge. Win Saturday and I think we win the following 3...we'd be 15-8 heading into a home game with UK. The final 7 isn't daunting either, I could see 4-3 over that span.

Honestly we win Saturday and I see us finishing 8-3 or 7-4 down the stretch. That's 18-12 or 19-11, I'd take it for sure.

 

[utfan72408]

I agree, that's why I think it's huge. Win Saturday and I think we win the following 3...we'd be 15-8 heading into a home game with UK. The final 7 isn't daunting either, I could see 4-3 over that span.

Honestly we win Saturday and I see us finishing 8-3 or 7-4 down the stretch. That's 18-12 or 19-11, I'd take it for sure.

Although I don't think we'll win Saturday, I think we can make up for it somewhere else. Missouri looks WEAK right now. Lost to LSU yesterday. I know it's hard to win on the road, but this Missouri team just looks horribly overrated. And they have to come to Knoxville. We could beat them. And if we're on the bubble at that point, we'll have more to play for than they will.

I could see us beating UK and Missouri, for the simple reason that they are home games. Florida will kill us, like they've killed nearly every team they've played.

The reason I don't see us getting in is because I don't trust us on the road. We'll lose, in my opinion, to Arkansas, Vandy, USCe, and Georgia. Those teams aren't better than us, but we SUCK on the road.

 

[OrangeBalls]

Although I don't think we'll win Saturday, I think we can make up for it somewhere else. Missouri looks WEAK right now. Lost to LSU yesterday. I know it's hard to win on the road, but this Missouri team just looks horribly overrated. And they have to come to Knoxville. We could beat them. And if we're on the bubble at that point, we'll have more to play for than they will.

I could see us beating UK and Missouri, for the simple reason that they are home games. Florida will kill us, like they've killed nearly every team they've played.

The reason I don't see us getting in is because I don't trust us on the road. We'll lose, in my opinion, to Arkansas, Vandy, USCe, and Georgia. Those teams aren't better than us, but we SUCK on the road.

That's pretty much what I think. Watching Ark tonight, I hope Martin puts Richardson on Young. I don't know if anyone else will be able to stay with him.

 

[utfan72408]

That's pretty much what I think. Watching Ark tonight, I hope Martin puts Richardson on Young. I don't know if anyone else will be able to stay with him.

Looks like a typical, ugly SEC affair. Should finish in the 50s. A few OTs would be nice.

Who is Bama using to guard Young? Lacey? Randolph? I haven't watched him play so I wouldn't know who the best option is.

 

[zansdad]

Although I don't think we'll win Saturday, I think we can make up for it somewhere else. Missouri looks WEAK right now. Lost to LSU yesterday. I know it's hard to win on the road, but this Missouri team just looks horribly overrated. And they have to come to Knoxville. We could beat them. And if we're on the bubble at that point, we'll have more to play for than they will.

I could see us beating UK and Missouri, for the simple reason that they are home games. Florida will kill us, like they've killed nearly every team they've played.

The reason I don't see us getting in is because I don't trust us on the road. We'll lose, in my opinion, to Arkansas, Vandy, USCe, and Georgia. Those teams aren't better than us, but we SUCK on the road.

Where does UT sucking on the road come from? They have played 5 true road games and have been in all of them, against good teams. When they start losing to bad teams on the road it's time to throw in the towel, until then I expect them to win all their road games vs bad teams. That includes Vandy, SoCar, and UGA.

 

[OrangeBalls]

Looks like a typical, ugly SEC a fair. Should finish in the 50s. A few OTs would be nice.

Who is Bama using to guard Young? Lacey? Randolph? I haven't watched him play so I wouldn't know who the best option is.

From what little I saw, Randolph was on him. Bama pulled it out at the end. Ark had a small lead and Bama came back and won by 3.

 

[utfan72408]

Where does UT sucking on the road come from? They have played 5 true road games and have been in all of them, against good teams. When they start losing to bad teams on the road it's time to throw in the towel, until then I expect them to win all their road games vs bad teams. That includes Vandy, SoCar, and UGA.

Does the fact that we've been in every game but haven't pulled even one out not concern you at all? In all 5 games, our opponent did not play particularly well (except maybe Bama), and in all 5 games we did just enough to lose. That's 5 out of 5 times. I don't trust our team in that I believe our level of play will drop according to the level of the opponent.

Let me put it this way: We probably aren't good enough to blow anyone out on the road. And late in a close game on the road, what have you seen that would indicate our guys will handle that pressure well? I, for one, haven't seen anything. So there's my reasoning. Of course I hope I'm wrong and will readily admit it if I am, but I think these upcoming road games will be like the first 5. We'll do 'just enough to lose.'

 

[bleedingTNorange]

The hope is the early road games against teams like Georgetown and Virginia helped prepare this team. If you can hang with those 2 on the road, no reason you shouldn't be able to beat UGA, Vandy and Georgia on the road...those are BAD teams.

One things thats really concerned me is that we don't put teams away. Had Vandy down and let them almost pull out a W, let Mississippi State back in it, we've done it all year. Need to put teams away and keep that lead when you get it.

 

[zansdad]

Does the fact that we've been in every game but haven't pulled even one out not concern you at all? In all 5 games, our opponent did not play particularly well (except maybe Bama), and in all 5 games we did just enough to lose. That's 5 out of 5 times. I don't trust our team in that I believe our level of play will drop according to the level of the opponent.

Let me put it this way: We probably aren't good enough to blow anyone out on the road. And late in a close game on the road, what have you seen that would indicate our guys will handle that pressure well? I, for one, haven't seen anything. So there's my reasoning. Of course I hope I'm wrong and will readily admit it if I am, but I think these upcoming road games will be like the first 5. We'll do 'just enough to lose.'

Doing just enough to lose to good teams on the road and "we SUCK" on the road are 2 separate things. I'm not saying this team is world beaters on the road, but they haven't exactly been terrible either. You can see it as UT did just enough to lose, or that the home team with their home crowd did just enough to win. Against bad competition I expect the outcome to be different.

 

[zansdad]

The hope is the early road games against teams like Georgetown and Virginia helped prepare this team. If you can hang with those 2 on the road, no reason you shouldn't be able to beat UGA, Vandy and Georgia on the road...those are BAD teams.

One things thats really concerned me is that we don't put teams away. Had Vandy down and let them almost pull out a W, let Mississippi State back in it, we've done it all year. Need to put teams away and keep that lead when you get it.

The whole put teams away thing is a bit overblown. This team is what it is and they are never going to win pretty, they don't have the talent for it. So every win they can muster up is going to be a grind it out affair. Take joy in the win and move on. This years basketball team is more of a brawler than a boxer. There won't be a lot of style points to go around at the end but hopefully there will be enough victories.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

The whole put teams away thing is a bit overblown. This team is what it is and they are never going to win pretty, they don't have the talent for it. So every win they can muster up is going to be a grind it out affair. Take joy in the win and move on. This years basketball team is more of a brawler than a boxer. There won't be a lot of style points to go around at the end but hopefully there will be enough victories.

Oh I agree. But I think lapses can be fixed like the Mississippi state game when we're up big and let teams back in. We did it early against teams like kennesaw state iirc.

If we have the ability to get up big on teams like that, we should have the talent to put them away and close.

 

[zansdad]

Oh I agree. But I think lapses can be fixed like the Mississippi state game when we're up big and let teams back in. We did it early against teams like kennesaw state iirc.

If we have the ability to get up big on teams like that, we should have the talent to put them away and close.

This team struggles to score consistently. When that happens there are going to be peaks and valleys. Sometimes those valleys come at the end of games. Although, I will say that CCM had Lopez, Hall, McBee, and i think Richardson and Reese on the floor for one very long stretch in the 2nd half against Vandy and I kept thinking "is he intentionally trying to let Vandy back in the game?" With both Stokes and McRae on the bench where did he think he was going to get points? I'm pretty sure that's the stretch of the game where UT's 11 point 2nd half lead dissappeared.

Anyway, they one a close one. Maybe it will pay dividends against Arky.