Draftnics: Success rate for 1st round QBs

#101
#101
lamar stinks

He is inaccurate
even when he doesn’t “scramble” he still frantically scampers around the pocket

The ball never comes out, ever. You can’t run any semblance of an offense. It’s full backyard.
 
#102
#102
n_huffhines said:
Ravens were 3rd in the league last year in offensive spending and Rams were 27th. 14th and 26th respectively in 2022.

Ravens scored 27 points combined in their 2 playoff losses those years.
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I mentioned that the Ravens had good offensive weapons last year, although Andrews missed a good chunk of time.

While the Ravens spent more, Puka Nuka and Cooper Kupp are better WRs than Flowers and whoever their No.2 was (guessing OBJ). And Kyren Williams was a top 10 RB.
 
#103
#103
Carp said:
I mentioned that the Ravens had good offensive weapons last year, although Andrews missed a good chunk of time.

While the Ravens spent more, Puka Nuka and Cooper Kupp are better WRs than Flowers and whoever their No.2 was (guessing OBJ). And Kyren Williams was a top 10 RB.
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I think Flowers looks awesome. Puka came out of nowhere and that seems like a credit to Stafford.

And it's not just about throwing targets.
 
#104
#104
Carp said:
I mentioned that the Ravens had good offensive weapons last year, although Andrews missed a good chunk of time.

While the Ravens spent more, Puka Nuka and Cooper Kupp are better WRs than Flowers and whoever their No.2 was (guessing OBJ). And Kyren Williams was a top 10 RB.
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Ravens OL was far superior to the Rams last year and if you swapped receivers everyone would talk about how awesome the Rams guys are and how lamar doesn’t have any weapons..
 
#105
#105
TBrown said:
lamar stinks

He is inaccurate
even when he doesn’t “scramble” he still frantically scampers around the pocket

The ball never comes out, ever. You can’t run any semblance of an offense. It’s full backyard.
Click to expand...

I would definitely put him at least in the 3rd tier with Stafford. I don't think he stinks. I just think it's gonna be hard to put together a SB run with him.
 
#106
#106
TBrown said:
Ravens OL was far superior to the Rams last year and if you swapped receivers everyone would talk about how awesome the Rams guys are and how lamar doesn’t have any weapons..
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I don't know about that. I mean it could be McVay's system that fits Kupp and Puka so well, but they are also great route runners and get good separation.
 
#107
#107
Carp said:
I don't know about that. I mean it could be McVay's system that fits Kupp and Puka so well, but they are also great route runners and get good separation.
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But I don't think you can run the same **** with Lamar because it's all based on processing the field, timing, and accuracy. Stafford is an A on that stuff. Lamar is like a C+. What's he gonna do with Puka?
 
#108
#108
I can't remember who it was but some talking head broke down how the problem with Lamar in winning vs winning the big games is for the latter in the modern NFL it's all but a given a QB is going to have occasions where it's going to take some consistent high level passing. It isn't what "can" Lamar do but what can you reasonably "expect" him to do when such a time comes. It's not something he's really demonstrated much of to this point in his career.
 
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#109
#109
#110
#110
I will say about Lamar, I just heard a great stat that yesterday was the first time he didn't cover as an underdog. So now he's 12-1-1 and that does illustrate how good he is as a floor-raiser for his teams.

I just don't think he's consistent enough as a ceiling raiser to make it through the playoffs, unless he has a sick team. His team this year is pretty good. He could win one. Worse QB's certainly have. I just don't expect him to. I feel like with the other top QB's in the non-Mahomes tier (Allen, Burrow, Stroud) it seems like a SB is an inevitability. Maybe it doesn't happen for them, but my mind just thinks it's happening based on what I see, and that's not what I see with Lamar.
 
#112
#112
What good is Lamar Jackson if he can't protect a double digit 4th quarter lead at home vs. Minshew? Guy is so overrated

Welp, I'm out of Survivor
 
#114
#114
95 Vol Alum said:
About as good as Burrows so far.
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Burrow outdueled Mahomes in Arrowhead today. Chiefs won because the Bengals DB bailed them out. It was over.

Burrow has been disappointing last season and this year, but he's also been really banged up. He was throwing every other day in camp this year, that's how weird his wrist injury is.

However, he might be Mr. Injury from here on out so maybe this is who he is. He takes so much damage. He had a sneak today and a sack where in both cases the 2nd guy to hit him clobbered him. His team/line and his habits are going to get him killed.
 
#115
#115
n_huffhines said:
What good is Lamar Jackson if he can't protect a double digit 4th quarter lead at home vs. Minshew? Guy is so overrated

Welp, I'm out of Survivor
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I forgot he was playing 1 on 22. You’re right! It’s clearly all him!
 
#116
#116
Vol8188 said:
I forgot he was playing 1 on 22. You’re right! It’s clearly all him!
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His 21 are better than Minshew's 21. He's at home. West coast teams do horribly on east coast early games historically. The deck was stacked in his favor. His 11 men on D kept the Raiders down all game. He threw a pick that kept the Raiders in it, and then all they needed to do to win was get some first downs in the 4th quarter, and they couldn't do it. 6 plays for -1 yards, and the D gassed out being on the field most of the 2nd half.

And if you actually watched, he's missing throws.
 
#118
#118
RE: Bryce Young....

It's the same thing over and over. Reach for a QB (often trading up to reach) and bring someone in who might actually be good but has little chance of being good because of the team circumstances. Broncos reached. Vikings reached. Falcons reached. Redskins didn't reach but don't have a great situation. Who isn't going to regret it? Time will tell.

Not for a second did I doubt Sean Payton was the right guy when he couldn't work with Russ. The second I found out he loved Bo Nix, I was one foot out the door. I heard Titans fans complain for the last year that they took Levis with a 2nd. I wish that were me.

Looking at the list of 1st rd picks in the last 13 years (about 40 total):

Slam dunks for the drafting team in part bc they were drafted into a pretty good situation
Mahomes, Stroud, Allen, Lamar, Love

Worked out because drafting team was able to offload him in the most lopsided trade of all time
Watson

Exceptions to rule
Burrow
Herbert

Guys who teams thought were good and then regretted the 2nd contract:
Lawrence (too soon?)
Tua (too soon?)
Wentz
Goff (and the ultimate exception to the rule, ended up being good on another team...this is so rare)
 
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#119
#119
Lamar Jackson is an incredible 22-1 vs. the NFC. I think this is an indication that he is very difficult to deal with when you've only seen him once before, or never.
 
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#120
#120
On the Rams broadcast yesterday they said that Stafford is the originator of this era of QB's throwing off platform. My first thought was "it's Rodgers, isn't it?" but Rodgers started in 2008 and Stafford started in 2009. Maybe Stafford was the first one and Rodgers started doing it after him, but got more famous for it because of his success?

If this is true, that's a giant notch in Stafford's belt towards getting in the HOF. To me, that's the difference between 3rd ballot and 2nd ballot.

What is the general consensus on this?
 
#121
#121
n_huffhines said:
On the Rams broadcast yesterday they said that Stafford is the originator of this era of QB's throwing off platform. My first thought was "it's Rodgers, isn't it?" but Rodgers started in 2008 and Stafford started in 2009. Maybe Stafford was the first one and Rodgers started doing it after him, but got more famous for it because of his success?

If this is true, that's a giant notch in Stafford's belt towards getting in the HOF. To me, that's the difference between 3rd ballot and 2nd ballot.

What is the general consensus on this?
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I feel like watching Favre highlights he threw "off platform" a little bit. Stafford was the first guy I remember that would actually do sidearm throws.
 
#122
#122
zjcvols said:
I feel like watching Favre highlights he threw "off platform" a little bit. Stafford was the first guy I remember that would actually do sidearm throws.
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Oh yeah, that's a good one.

I think maybe the distinction is Favre would throw off platform because he's escaping pressure (which every QB does to some degree, but not the way Favre, Rodgers, or Mahomes do), and Stafford is the guy who started doing it just because it gives the D less time to read and react to his mechanics.
 
#123
#123
n_huffhines said:
Not for a second did I doubt Sean Payton was the right guy when he couldn't work with Russ. The second I found out he loved Bo Nix, I was one foot out the door. I heard Titans fans complain for the last year that they took Levis with a 2nd. I wish that were me.
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Not a believer yet, but Nix certainly hasn't been bad. Not exactly lighting it up, but he's not supposed to be given his inexperience and weapons.
 
#125
#125
zjcvols said:
He has been as good as Caleb with a "worse" team but the Chicago media won't tell you that!
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Well, of course they are hyping their guy. Bears have had the #1 SOS so far, better weapons, but O line problems. Caleb played well enough to beat the 2nd best NFC team on the road last week. It took a goal-line fumble and a hail mary to beat the Bears.

But FWIW, Nix is 20th in QBR and Caleb is 24th.
 
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