Duck Bowl Game Observations

#26
#26
I gandered at a few of the Duck forums and they are extremely confident that they will be going undefeated to play Alabama in the NC. I know they are talented but to think youll win every game by at least 30 points is out there.
 
#28
#28
davethevol said:
Considering the prior year to that we actually beat LSU, I'd say we had pretty darn good talent and still do. It hasn't been coached properly at any position outside of the offensive line. Thought you knew that.
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You must have been drinking that day too. I was there and we lost, dope.
 
#29
#29
People seem to be overlooking the fact that they play at Virginia the week before us. Might not be as easy as everyone thinks.

They will not see an O-line like ours all year. We will be able to run the ball. We have to avoid stupid turnovers, play good special teams (especially the punt game), and try to bend and dont break as much as humanly possible.

This game will be closer than many think. They lost a couple first round draft picks from last years team, and yet still talented, we should own them in the trenches.

Oregon 34 Vols 24
 
#31
#31
PanicVol said:
People seem to be overlooking the fact that they play at Virginia the week before us. Might not be as easy as everyone thinks.

They will not see an O-line like ours all year. We will be able to run the ball. We have to avoid stupid turnovers, play good special teams (especially the punt game), and try to bend and dont break as much as humanly possible.

This game will be closer than many think. They lost a couple first round draft picks from last years team, and yet still talented, we should own them in the trenches.

Oregon 34 Vols 24
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I don't know about owning them. They might have lost Dion Jordan, but their front seven is still very good. Btw, Stanford's oline is really nasty.
 
#33
#33
davethevol said:
The refs changed the outcome. We won and I don't care what the record books show.
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It's not the refs' fault Dooley and company were terrible coaches. I guess the refs just shouldn't have called 13 men on the field.

I'm more pissed about the UNC game because the rule that caused that loss was so stupid the NCAA changed it in the offseason.
 
#34
#34
Boston Vol said:
I don't know about owning them. They might have lost Dion Jordan, but their front seven is still very good. Btw, Stanford's oline is really nasty.
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And Kyle Long.

What I meant was:

Our O-line > Ducks D-Line
Our D-Line > Ducks O-Line

I dont see any reason why we shouldnt be able to run at will.
 
#36
#36
Smokefatty said:
It's not the refs' fault Dooley and company were terrible coaches. I guess the refs just shouldn't have called 13 men on the field.

I'm more pissed about the UNC game because the rule that caused that loss was so stupid the NCAA changed it in the offseason.
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I'm with you there. I was at the UNC game celebrating the win. That was absolutely the biggest bunch of BS I've ever witnessed.

Vercingetorix said:
You don't get to put 13 guys on the field for the last play. They got it right.
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They made the call late. They should have called it before the ball was snapped.
 
#37
#37
ItsAllVols said:
I watch the O vs Stanford game, in which Stanford won. Stanford basically keep QB contained and made him be a QB, they still ran some and completed allot of passes (screens are a big part of their game and YAK) So tackling is key.
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Yikes!!!! I pray we have improved greatly on this!!!
 
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#38
#38
davethevol said:
They made the call late. They should have called it before the ball was snapped.
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I didn't say they didn't screw it up. But the bigger injustice would have been to let Tennessee stop LSU on the final play with 13 guys on the field because of a procedural snafu.
 
#39
#39
Vercingetorix said:
I didn't say they didn't screw it up. But the bigger injustice would have been to let Tennessee stop LSU on the final play with 13 guys on the field because of a procedural snafu.
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Meh, I disagree. They don't have unlimited time to go back and fix mistakes that they didn't catch.
 
#40
#40
I seem to remember playing them 2 years ago and we were actually up before the monsoon! Barner's punt return quickly showed their speed difference and they blew us out in the second half. We just have to play to our strength (O-Line pounding their defensive front seven). I doubt we win, BUT bigger upsets have happened!

Also, remember they may be a little tired and hopefully slower due to traveling across the country to play at UVA before us.
 
#42
#42
VOLinAL said:
I gandered at a few of the Duck forums and they are extremely confident that they will be going undefeated to play Alabama in the NC. I know they are talented but to think youll win every game by at least 30 points is out there.
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They have every right to have an opinion of their team. Frankly, the Ducks could actually win all their games. They have that potential. So does Clemson, LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and I'm sure a number of other teams as well. If they believe it, they could make it happen. What's that saying? Oh yeah, "Aim for the moon, if you fail, at least you'll land among the stars."
 
#45
#45
ItsAllVols said:
I watch the O vs Stanford game, in which Stanford won. Stanford basically keep QB contained and made him be a QB, they still ran some and completed allot of passes (screens are a big part of their game and YAK) So tackling is key.
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If this guy is a big part of their game, we're in trouble.
treknature-tibetan-yak-photo-284x300.jpg
 
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#46
#46
Once again...Oregon looks great because they play an incredibly weak schedule. The PAC does not recruit well compared to the SEC. In fact, Oregon out recruits all teams on their schedule (except for USC) and vastly out recruits everyone else but Stanford.

Look at the numbers for 2012. Oregon's recruiting average was a 17.5. Here are their opponents and their four year trailing talent average.

  1. Arkansas State (89.5)
  2. Fresno State (84.75)
  3. Arizona (54.75)
  4. Washington State (77.25)
  5. Airzona State (40)
  6. Colorado (56)
  7. USC (4.25)***
  8. California (23.25)
  9. Stanford (18.25)
  10. Oregon State (48)
  11. Kansas State (69.75)

This means that on average, Oregon had a 33 point difference between their talent and their opponent. Importantly, Oregon only played 1 school with a higher four year talent evaluation (USC).

Yes, the average margin of victory for Oregon was 25 points, but look at their opponents recruiting averages.

Yes, they beat USC who out recruited Oregon, but Kiff is notorious for under performance on a Dooley-esque level.

Stanford actually has less talent than Oregon (barely) and won (Stanford and SCAR are similar talent wise).

Here is a schedule comparison for last year:

Tennessee had a 12.25 four year trailing average. Our average opponent had a four year trailing average of about 30.4 (roughly 20 points higher than Oregon's competition). We played three teams who out recruited both us and the Ducks. Oregon played 4 teams who had talent averages BELOW the worst team on our schedule, that includes their bowl game.

  • NCSU (56.25)
  • Florida (7)
  • Georgia (9.5)
  • MSU (34.25)
  • Bama (2)
  • SCAR (18.25)
  • Missouri (35)
  • Vanderbilt (57.75)
  • Kentucky (53.5)

The ducks are not world beaters, as typically shown by their performance when they play teams who are on par with them talent wise. All of this talk about "team speed" is so subjective as people are basing their perception on speed versus the opponent. Doesn't that require a look at the relative talent of Oregon's opponents?

Does Oregon win this game vs. UT? I would say the probability is high, due to any home field advantage and their confidence. Understand, however, that this game isn't a guaranteed blow out with UT having no chance. In fact, the way I view things this game is less of an upset than if UT beats UGA, Bama or Florida.

The key for UT will be how well our players mesh in a new system, and how well Jones can prepare them for this game coupled with the potential drop off from Oregon's change of coaching.

** I do not count any school that is not Division 1 in this analysis.
 
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#48
#48
zreeves said:
i mustve turned it off i thought it was 38 13
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Honestly, I think I did too. I looked back at the box score and saw that Oregon didn't score at all in the 3rd, so I must not have watched the 4th quarter and just didn't remember it correctly outside of the fact that LSU won.
 
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