Duck Bowl Game Observations
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checkerboards09
Just win baby
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rocktopper16
Don’t mind me, I’m just here for the meltdown.
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Match ups. I am usually non-committal or do percentages. So here you go:
Oregon by more than 14- 25%
Oregon by less than 14- 35%
UT by less than 14- 35%
UT by more than 14- 5%
Basically if UT can make it a close game (and at 70% chance of a close game I do) then it becomes a coin toss.
After watching more of Oregon's play from last year and particularly Stanford... I LOVE UT's OL against their front 7. Stanford had one effective RB- UT will have two. Stanford ran at them. Stanford's TE's gave them trouble because of size and athleticism. UT has big athletic TE's and big WR's. (Croom is almost as big as Ertz who killed Oregon).
Their O is always dangerous but Stanford appeared to just play fundamentally sound football. They kept their outside arm free and kept leverage. They were most effective when they got penetration from their DT's- neither of which have the athleticism of Couch or McCullers. Oregon's big plays come from the run game and not the pass game. I don't think Mariota even tried more than one or two passes deeper than 15 yds. Their WR's vs Stanford were an afterthought at best.
I like UT on D except at CB. I think they are solid everywhere else though not deep at LB.
Again... I just like the man2man matchups and believe that Jones will take advantage of them where Dooley did not.
Many do not though. And if we are honest with ourselves, that appears to be the "safe money" right now. Oregon is a team that was two missed FG's last year away from being the national champion... I don't think ND would have stayed on the field with them either... They are highly ranked with a system and philosophy of play that has elevated them to national prominence.
Looking at it from every subjective angle there is... Oregon deserves to be a multi-TD favorite. But the matchups imo do not support that. After that, it comes down to coaching. I was not an early buyer of Jones. I am much more of a wait and see kind of guy. However he and his staff are quickly winning me over. That trust could be lost if they don't show up on gameday... like Dooley did not... but right now I see bunches of things to like about the way they coach a football team and very little to dislike.
orangeluvr
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Sudden Impact
Who we are is what We do with what We have!
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Agree......Cautiously Optomistic......reason to believe, but we will have to see...catching Oregon at the right moment....at least we know the following....1) our players will be ready, 2) they will be prepared...3) they are better coached....4) they will have two games to get the kinks out.....5) they are under the radar.... 6) they are motivated....7) our staff know what to expect with the Oregon high octane offense and defense....8) Our players have some to prove....9) anything can happen in college football and 10) it is a perfect storm...
Think we steal one of these road games Florida or Oregon....the are both statement games and our players have something to prove...
Think we steal one of these road games Florida or Oregon....the are both statement games and our players have something to prove...
One thing I have failed to mention also is that several of UT's OL's saw Oregon as freshmen. They were undeveloped, marginally coached, and extremely inexperienced. Running behind them was a RB with good but not great skills and average open field speed. That young OL plus Moore and Jones pushed Oregon around pretty good. Poole had a career day that included several big runs. They did this in spite of having Simms at QB... a HUGE liability that showed up in the 2nd half when Oregon committed everything to stopping the run and UT could not keep them honest.
James, Stone, and Fulton have seen what Oregon does defensively and have performed well against it. I LOVE UT's OL vs Oregon's front 7.
James, Stone, and Fulton have seen what Oregon does defensively and have performed well against it. I LOVE UT's OL vs Oregon's front 7.
beneVOLence
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UTMVol76
Heup Train
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Disclaimer: What I'm about to post is not a Dooley defense, but clarification of rules.
The refs totally screwed that play up vs. LSU, and here's how: Les Miles waited until the play clock had wound down to around 10 seconds, IIRC, and substituted his WR formation with his Big's formation, forcing the D to make counter substitution to match formation. With any substitution like that, the Ref is supposed to center himself over the ball, not allowing the offense to snap the ball until the defense is able to get they're counter substitution in. Because of how late the substitution was made by LSU, that would have caused the timeclock to run out.
That also doesn't take into account the automatic 15 yard Personal Foul penalty that should have tacked onto the replay due to the LSU Center tossing his helmet down the field, which would have altered the play for that last play that should have never happened anyhow. Whole thing still pisses me off......
The refs totally screwed that play up vs. LSU, and here's how: Les Miles waited until the play clock had wound down to around 10 seconds, IIRC, and substituted his WR formation with his Big's formation, forcing the D to make counter substitution to match formation. With any substitution like that, the Ref is supposed to center himself over the ball, not allowing the offense to snap the ball until the defense is able to get they're counter substitution in. Because of how late the substitution was made by LSU, that would have caused the timeclock to run out.
That also doesn't take into account the automatic 15 yard Personal Foul penalty that should have tacked onto the replay due to the LSU Center tossing his helmet down the field, which would have altered the play for that last play that should have never happened anyhow. Whole thing still pisses me off......
WoodsmanVol
It takes wisdom to understand wisdom.
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I think Oregon would have run up a bigger score against ND than Bama did. Bama didn't really have the Duck's speed though Bama was no slouch in that department. Basically, Bama's OL just beat the snot out of ND and wore them down. The RBs probably could have run at half speed and still scored. The Ducks might have given up more points to ND due to a weaker defense but would also probably have scored every 2nd possession at the least. Probably a 70-30 game.
Now, as to our chances, I still think the Ducks win. But as I said previously, my perspective is slowly changing. Due in large part to a lot of the same kind of stuff you're talking about, sjt18. If we come into Duck country at full strength, meaning injury free and our currently injured players back, we stand a chance to win. I wouldn't have said this before but after watching the Fiesta Bowl game, I think I saw things that I didn't know before.
I think after being waylaid by two SEC teams (Auburn and LSU), they will be primed to strut their stuff to beat an SEC team at home. If Butch has put enough pride, blue collar workmanship, discipline, conditioning, and a serious custom made game plan in those jerseys, we may have a unique history. We already got the Miracle at South Bend. Making a Miracle at Eugene would be an incredible bookend for the South Bend bookshelf.
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