Early point spreads for 2013...

#51
#51
GoDucks349 said:
I do think the battle between the Tenn Oline and the Oregon defense will really have a big impact on this game. You've got a lot of talent on that line and Oregon in the past has tended to play defense by substitution using 8 or 9 d linemen to stay fresh and hopefully force third and long. That will be the classic battle, can we stop your offense and get punts or field goal attempts and get your offense off the field.

Many Oregon opponents have opted to go for it on fourth downs rather than kick field goals simply out of fear of Oregon putting up 6 on the next drive. Net result field goals lose ground to touchdowns.
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Are Oregon fans not concerned that losing the coach is going to be a serious blow to their offense and in-game play calling? Honest question, I know next to nothing about who is stepping in or continuity of the program.
 
#52
#52
oregonvol said:
Looks like the guys with money at stake are more optimistic than most of this board
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Maybe. Pardon me for not taking Golden Nugget very seriously. It's a dinky little casino that was once great. Still has a bit going for it but much degenerated now. Only positive I can think of for it is it's located on the Fremont Street Experience which has a great overhead giant, curved, one block long display. And usually fun music nights to go with it. Ok, two positives, It's very close to another dinky casino that has a very good buffet, Main Street Casino.
 
#53
#53
WoodsmanVol said:
Maybe. Pardon me for not taking Golden Nugget very seriously. It's a dinky little casino that was once great. Still has a bit going for it but much degenerated now. Only positive I can think of for it is it's located on the Fremont Street Experience which has a great overhead giant, curved, one block long display. And usually fun music nights to go with it. Ok, two positives, It's very close to another dinky casino that has a very good buffet, Main Street Casino.
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And the tables are much more reasonable than the casinos on the strip.
 
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#54
#54
vtvol98 said:
And the tables are much more reasonable than the casinos on the strip.
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And the blonde at the Starbucks who wouldn't talk to me at all but I still believe we are meant to be together. And also the pool with the sharks is cool. But mainly the starbucks girl.
 
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#55
#55
Backwards K said:
At Oregon is not a good match up for this Tennessee team. The Ducks have speed, speed, and more speed. Their offense is predicated on getting their athletes out in space in one on one match ups.

To be successful against their offense, you need depth and strength on your DL, speed at linebacker and more speed in your defensive backfield. And, you need an experienced defense that knows their schemes and everyone is able to know what to do and how to do it on every play.

On offense, UT wants to play a fast paced offense which if successful, will put up points in a hurry. If not successful, it will get their defense back on the field quickly with very little time coming off the clock.

Teams like Oregon want to make a name for themselves by beating up on an SEC team so they will not call off the dogs in this one. Tennessee better grow up in a hurry and be ready to play for 60 minutes or it could get ugly.
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Oregon was 45th in rushing Defense in 2012...in a league that didn't run much.
Oregon lost 2 Sr. LBs and their top DE.
Oregon has never seen an OLine like UT's.
With Peterman running the read option, UT runs for 300 and holds the ball for 35 minutes.
Take the points.
 
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#56
#56
I'll take the Points against the Ducks as I think these guys will fight hard for Butch!!!
 
#58
#58
vtvol98 said:
If Tennessee plays the same up-tempo no-huddle attack that Butch ran in Cincinnati, your boys will have a tough time rotating linemen in and out. It's the same offensive philosophy that has worked for Oregon for years. This has the potential to be a track meet.
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Brilliant analysis. Butch knows he has to get to halftime within 10. If he can wear down Ore starting D in the bargain, UT has a chance.
 
#59
#59
Butch has been to the UT film room. He's seen UF put 8 in the box vs. Fulmer's Pro Set. Butch will have to create balance to allow the superior OLine to take over. Look for UT to run 2 or 3 QBs to find a formula to push back the LBs.
 
#60
#60
WiseOlVol said:
Brilliant analysis. Butch knows he has to get to halftime within 10. If he can wear down Ore starting D in the bargain, UT has a chance.
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Few probably realize that Tennessee held serve at the half with the score tied at 13 in the 2010 game. Tauren Poole gashed Oregon for 162 yards behind a patchwork offensive line. Tennessee's lack of depth on their defensive line showed in the second half as they were worn down by the Ducks fast tempo offense. The things that UT has going for it this year is plenty of depth and senior leadership on both lines and a good bevy of backs.
 
#61
#61
WiseOlVol said:
Oregon was 45th in rushing Defense in 2012...in a league that didn't run much.
Oregon lost 2 Sr. LBs and their top DE.
Oregon has never seen an OLine like UT's.
With Peterman running the read option, UT runs for 300 and holds the ball for 35 minutes.
Take the points.
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I'm orange blooded too but presume to think I have a realistic view about the truth.

1. Oregon continues to have a very dangerous offense. Their RBs if you give them an inch they will take 5,0000 miles.
2. Their QB can definitely pass and does have WRs who can catch. But he's most dangerous, and let me make sure you understand me, he's most dangerous as a runner. Blink once and he's 25 yards down the field. Blink twice and you won't even see him cross into the end zone. Yes, he's that fast.
3. As for what Oregon has seen OL-wise, our OL isn't all that special to them. They've bumped heads with big lines before. USC, Stanford, LSU, and I think Wisconsin.

I want to see areas of advantage for our Vols like you. Indeed, I think our OL will be an important factor. I do believe, especially with Lane back now and the apparent emergence of Hill, we will be able to run on the Ducks with significant success. I also believe our revamped DL will give them issues but not enough to defuse their quick strike abilities. Our best chance will be as you point out, keeping the ball out of their hands. AND wearing them down with a bruising running game. But if they follow the norm and score quickly and often, forcing us to play catch up, we're screwed.

The only way out of that will be if our QB(s) have really developed as passers and our big WRs are effective. If our big WRs are effective, that will put a crimp in Oregon's game plan. Because their DBs are smallish and we'd be able to move down field at will in big chunks. However, until we see the QBs and WRs in unrestricted action, we can't count on this being a known or effective part of our offense. Thus for now, advantage-Oregon.
 
#63
#63
WiseOlVol said:
Brilliant analysis. Butch knows he has to get to halftime within 10. If he can wear down Ore starting D in the bargain, UT has a chance.
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More like piss poor analysis. So you two are saying that our.strategy should be to try and match their tempo and get in a scoring contest. I dont see how that makes any sense
 
#66
#66
volfanhill said:
More like piss poor analysis. So you two are saying that our.strategy should be to try and match their tempo and get in a scoring contest. I dont see how that makes any sense
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Because going into a ball-control offensive shell has always made sense against teams with spread offenses? Fulmer, Kiffin, and Dooley all tried to win against the Floridas and Oregons of the world with a field position and clock-ball type of strategy and got CRUSHED!!!! Maybe something a little different may work a little better, eh?
 
#67
#67
vtvol98 said:
If Tennessee plays the same up-tempo no-huddle attack that Butch ran in Cincinnati, your boys will have a tough time rotating linemen in and out. It's the same offensive philosophy that has worked for Oregon for years. This has the potential to be a track meet.
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That's a very good point.
 
#68
#68
volgrad500 said:
Are Oregon fans not concerned that losing the coach is going to be a serious blow to their offense and in-game play calling? Honest question, I know next to nothing about who is stepping in or continuity of the program.
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Not really worried, Helfrich was the offensive coordinator, now he's head coach. We might see more passing this year. We've done the oc to head coach transition several times and it's always worked out. Bellotti after Brooks, Kelly after Bellotti and now Helfrich after Kelly. That covers the last 30 years of Oregon football.
 
#69
#69
WiseOlVol said:
Oregon was 45th in rushing Defense in 2012...in a league that didn't run much.
Oregon lost 2 Sr. LBs and their top DE.
Oregon has never seen an OLine like UT's.
With Peterman running the read option, UT runs for 300 and holds the ball for 35 minutes.
Take the points.
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I don't think the math works. First assuming Tenn plays an "up tempo" offense similar to what Butch has run in the past, if you have the ball for 35 minutes you better have a lot more than 300 yards. Maybe 1300 yard if you have that much time of possession in an up tempo offense.
 
#70
#70
WoodsmanVol said:
I'm orange blooded too but presume to think I have a realistic view about the truth.

1. Oregon continues to have a very dangerous offense. Their RBs if you give them an inch they will take 5,0000 miles.
2. Their QB can definitely pass and does have WRs who can catch. But he's most dangerous, and let me make sure you understand me, he's most dangerous as a runner. Blink once and he's 25 yards down the field. Blink twice and you won't even see him cross into the end zone. Yes, he's that fast.
3. As for what Oregon has seen OL-wise, our OL isn't all that special to them. They've bumped heads with big lines before. USC, Stanford, LSU, and I think Wisconsin.

I want to see areas of advantage for our Vols like you. Indeed, I think our OL will be an important factor. I do believe, especially with Lane back now and the apparent emergence of Hill, we will be able to run on the Ducks with significant success. I also believe our revamped DL will give them issues but not enough to defuse their quick strike abilities. Our best chance will be as you point out, keeping the ball out of their hands. AND wearing them down with a bruising running game. But if they follow the norm and score quickly and often, forcing us to play catch up, we're screwed.

The only way out of that will be if our QB(s) have really developed as passers and our big WRs are effective. If our big WRs are effective, that will put a crimp in Oregon's game plan. Because their DBs are smallish and we'd be able to move down field at will in big chunks. However, until we see the QBs and WRs in unrestricted action, we can't count on this being a known or effective part of our offense. Thus for now, advantage-Oregon.
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Marcus Mariota to my understanding turns a 4.4 second 40 so that's not lightening fast, decent speed but not blinding.

Also, yes he's done well passing and running the ball, but the real strength is knowing who to get the ball to and get it to them fast. Yes he will hurt you with the run if the defense "cheats" or gets in a "habit" that allows him to run.
 
#71
#71
Find it hard to believe people cant grasp Vegas' relationship between point spreads and money..
 
#72
#72
JohnnyBall said:
Find it hard to believe people cant grasp Vegas' relationship between point spreads and money..
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LOL, yea couldn't agree more. Although it is a bit more complicated than just matching up the opposite sides of a game. With proper manipulation, maybe they can get the spread widened on their books. Say 1.5 points or 2 points. Thus giving them a bigger profit margin.
 
#73
#73
GoDucks349 said:
Not really worried, Helfrich was the offensive coordinator, now he's head coach. We might see more passing this year. We've done the oc to head coach transition several times and it's always worked out. Bellotti after Brooks, Kelly after Bellotti and now Helfrich after Kelly. That covers the last 30 years of Oregon football.
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UT had that type of coaching consistency/longevity...once upon a time.
 
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