East Tennessee Weather II

#2,576
#2,576
Alert!!!!!!!!!

Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-
Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-
West Polk-East Polk-
214 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon. Total snow
accumulations of of 1 to 3 inches. Temperatures will also drop
below freezing very quickly Thursday afternoon and evening, with
any wet surfaces rapidly freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest North
Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...The hazardous conditions will impact the the Thursday
evening commute with icy conditions lingering into Christmas
morning.
Click to expand...
 
#2,577
#2,577
The following is for the mountains and Northeast TN.

Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon. A brief period
of moderate to heavy snow is possible. Total snow accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches possible with locally heavier amounts across
the higher terrain. Temperatures will also drop below freezing
very quickly Thursday afternoon and evening, with any wet
surfaces rapidly freezing.

* WHERE...Southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and the Smoky
Mountains. This includes the Tri-City area.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold airmass and breezy conditions will
reduce wind chills across the higher elevations to 5 below zero
to 5 above for Thursday night and Friday.
Click to expand...
 
#2,580
#2,580
Such impressive dynamics with this system that's going to churn out some heavy snowfall rates across the mountains and NE TN. Will likely be a quick gradient somewhere around Knox County. Travel looks hazardous this evening.

132936483_3835733833124627_6964930332123181111_o.jpg
 
#2,581
#2,581
To add to MetVol's post:

Even if you don't see much in the way of snow accumulation, any liquid remaining on the roads and bridges will be frozen tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s, so black ice is likely. Please be extremely careful if you must travel this evening into tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MetVol
#2,584
#2,584
MetVol said:
Also, if you're not familiar with these products, the snow probability products are pretty neat. They're built around a distribution curve of NWS WPC ensemble members and applied to the snowfall forecast.
Experimental Winter Snow Probabilities
ProbSnowGE01.png
Click to expand...
I certainly could be wrong but it looks like it’s moving faster than they anticipated. I hate to say it but it’s starting to look like a big nothing burger to me, at least for West Knoxville and points West of there.

Edit: I think they expected more Northern movement and it appears to be moving more East than North. Maybe it’ll shift but I’m not liking the way it looks right now.
 
#2,585
#2,585
hUTch2002 said:
I certainly could be wrong but it looks like it’s moving faster than they anticipated. I hate to say it but it’s starting to look like a big nothing burger to me, at least for West Knoxville and points West of there.

Edit: I think they expected more Northern movement and it appears to be moving more East than North. Maybe it’ll shift but I’m not liking the way it looks right now.
Click to expand...

Overall, think it still looks on track. The highest snowfall has been expected primarily north and east of Knoxville for the last few days, and this should still be true. Important to note that the actual snow will not be from the current precip shield as seen on radar. Post-frontal snow should develop later today as the upper jet strengthens and increases the mid-level frontogenesis and vertical circulation. Heavy snow rates will occur with this activity. It'll be a tight gradient, and I wouldn't be surprised to see places like Farragut get less than 1" while Strawberry Plains has 3-4".

As morning sounding/obs data is initialized in 12z models, then continue to hint at that tight west to east gradient.

snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn.png
 
#2,586
#2,586
MetVol said:
Overall, think it still looks on track. The highest snowfall has been expected primarily north and east of Knoxville for the last few days, and this should still be true. Important to note that the actual snow will not be from the current precip shield as seen on radar. Post-frontal snow should develop later today as the upper jet strengthens and increases the mid-level frontogenesis and vertical circulation. Heavy snow rates will occur with this activity. It'll be a tight gradient, and I wouldn't be surprised to see places like Farragut get less than 1" while Strawberry Plains has 3-4".

As morning sounding/obs data is initialized in 12z models, then continue to hint at that tight west to east gradient.

View attachment 333639
Click to expand...
I bow to your meteorological prowess! This system hasn’t shown much back end moisture yet so that’s why I questioned whether or not it would develop. The picture you posted looks like something sweeping down from the North and moving Southeast like a clipper but this one is moving Northeast. Don’t get me wrong, I hope you’re right and I’m willing to bet you know much more about it than I do. I’m just going by what I see, or think I see anyway. Merry Christmas and thanks for posting this stuff! It’s awesome!
 
#2,587
#2,587
hUTch2002 said:
I bow to your meteorological prowess! This system hasn’t shown much back end moisture yet so that’s why I questioned whether or not it would develop. The picture you posted looks like something sweeping down from the North and moving Southeast like a clipper but this one is moving Northeast. Don’t get me wrong, I hope you’re right and I’m willing to bet you know much more about it than I do. I’m just going by what I see, or think I see anyway. Merry Christmas and thanks for posting this stuff! It’s awesome!
Click to expand...
Merry Christmas to you as well! In a way, the key upper features that should lead to the snow later today is diving down from the NW; it just hasn't caught up yet. Always a tricky forecast around here, and it's never certain. Forecasting around here will humble you a lot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hUTch2002
#2,588
#2,588
3 to 6 forecast for the Abingdon area in the valley. I hoped it was just for the mountains directly to the East but I doubt if we’re that lucky. It means caregivers will not get here to care for my 86 mom with dementia. I haven’t been a fan of snow for years. Despise it now.
 
#2,589
#2,589
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
3 to 6 forecast for the Abingdon area in the valley. I hoped it was just for the mountains directly to the East but I doubt if we’re that lucky. It means caregivers will not get here to care for my 86 mom with dementia. I haven’t been a fan of snow for years. Despise it now.
Click to expand...
Well and no matter what ice was going to be a problem with this system regardless of snow. I’m sorry to hear that though. I know how difficult dementia can be.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ABINGDON VOL FAN
#2,590
#2,590
Important to note the cold may arrive a tad bit before the second wave. (Currently east of Middle Tennessee) Good for snow lovers. Also, the HHR is showing more pop with the low with a more southern track. Wouldn’t be surprised with higher bust amounts in the valley & 1.5-2in hour rates.

Met or VK, if current trends hold do you think we may see a Upgrade from advisory issued for Central Valley?
 
#2,591
#2,591
rocktopper16 said:
Important to note the cold may arrive a tad bit before the second wave. (Currently east of Middle Tennessee) Good for snow lovers. Also, the HHR is showing more pop with the low with a more southern track. Wouldn’t be surprised with higher bust amounts in the valley & 1.5-2in hour rates.

Met or VK, if current trends hold do you think we may see a Upgrade from advisory issued for Central Valley?
Click to expand...
You people are freaking awesome. Why didn’t I find this thread sooner?
 
#2,593
#2,593
rocktopper16 said:
Important to note the cold may arrive a tad bit before the second wave. (Currently east of Middle Tennessee) Good for snow lovers. Also, the HHR is showing more pop with the low with a more southern track. Wouldn’t be surprised with higher bust amounts in the valley & 1.5-2in hour rates.

Met or VK, if current trends hold do you think we may see a Upgrade from advisory issued for Central Valley?
Click to expand...

Agreed. There will be heavy snow rates and wouldn't be surprised by some warning criteria (4"+ in the central valley up towards Morristown). The warning could be expanded, but honestly doubt it at this point because probability of warning criteria snow amounts (those 4"+ values) is less than 50% across the central valley. Will bear watching through the afternoon.
 
#2,594
#2,594
MetVol said:
Agreed. There will be heavy snow rates and wouldn't be surprised by some warning criteria (4"+ in the central valley up towards Morristown). The warning could be expanded, but honestly doubt it at this point because probability of warning criteria snow amounts (those 4"+ values) is less than 50% across the central valley. Will bear watching through the afternoon.
Click to expand...

Well said! Looking on Wunderground at different weather stations throughout the state it looks like the cold is coming in at a parallel pattern and not horizontal as parts of Northern Alabama and South Middle Tennessee are already creeping to 32* not much variation northward. I hope that trend means the plateau won’t have a affect on holding the cold as it can swoop in through the lower valley up towards the central locations. HRRR is also showing a slower moving L now I wouldn’t put much stock into that. Water Vapor maps are picking up on the second wave (another good sign)


VK, With the rain before the storm and TDOT not putting anything down I think we can agree to say that Christmas Day travel should be minimized. If you have plans, make them later in the day or move them to today as roads will be bad, not just from snow.
 
#2,597
#2,597
Just watched WVLT’s weather video and Heather mentioned that more snow will fall than sticks. What is the real accumulation to expect then?
 
#2,598
#2,598
rocktopper16 said:
Met, Would this be bigger wet flakes or small fine flakes with how strong this front is?
Click to expand...
You'll get the nice, big dendrites with such strong omega through the DGZ, so it'll be the big flakes. Should be fun to watch these big flakes and high snow rates at home, but you sure won't want to be out in it. Hazardous travel tonight. You know it's going to be rough when you're looking at possible 3"-4" in 3-4 hours.
 
#2,599
#2,599
MetVol said:
You'll get the nice, big dendrites with such strong omega through the DGZ, so it'll be the big flakes. Should be fun to watch these big flakes and high snow rates at home, but you sure won't want to be out in it. Hazardous travel tonight. You know it's going to be rough when you're looking at possible 3"-4" in 3-4 hours.
Click to expand...

Your thoughts on Morristown?
 
#2,600
#2,600
headhunter15 said:
Just watched WVLT’s weather video and Heather mentioned that more snow will fall than sticks. What is the real accumulation to expect then?
Click to expand...
Some will melt, but with the very cold airmass and dynamic cooling across the area, I think most of it will accumulate. Might subtract a half-inch or so from the model accumulations and that'll probably be near the actual depth. You'll also get compaction with several inches of snow which will pack it down over time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: headhunter15
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top