East Tennessee Weather II

#2,554
#2,554
If you could. Post the next Euro Run, I’m at work and internet is too slow to load maps. We are about in short model range mode.
 
#2,555
#2,555
Yeah, we'll likely see some snow Christmas Eve into Christmas night, but the best chances of seeing 1" or greater will be across the usual spots of the higher elevation mountains and plateau. The key for amounts (especially across the valley) will be the track and strength of a developing surface low along the cold front across north GA and the western Carolinas. Still a lot of disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS with those key, small details, and that's leading to some big differences in potential snow totals. Just based on the pattern, I'd feel the current 0z ECMWF is fairly close to reality (it's lower than the GFS solution). We'll see how it evolves over the coming days.
snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn.png
 
#2,556
#2,556
My early take is pretty simple. Too much uncertainty right now to discuss snowfall amounts for the same reasons mentioned above.
 
#2,557
#2,557
Ensembles are all over the place. Seems to be a classic Miller b system similar to the one we had last year IIRC.
 
#2,558
#2,558
As of the 0z model runs, there are 2 camps.

Euro/UKMET/ICON (German model): light accumulations confined to the plateau and mountains.

GFS/NAM/CMC/RGEM: 1-3 inches in the valley with higher amounts in the mountains.
 
#2,559
#2,559
Think it'll be a narrow window for accumulating snow on Thursday afternoon. Some decent negative EPV which would favor some banding and heavier snow rates for 2-3 hours, especially north/northeast of Knoxville. A lot will depend on the strength and location of the new surface low as it develops across the Southern Appalachians as the cold air moves into the region. These transition events are never clear cut.
 
#2,563
#2,563
Seems as if MRX is going exclusively with the European/UKMet models:

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

...A Strong Storm System will Effect the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians Thursday and Christmas Day...

A strong storm system will move across the area Thursday and
Christmas Day. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected area-wide
for late Wednesday night and Thursday with Windy conditions
across the Mountains and Foothills of far east Tennessee.

Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger
through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon
with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers
will linger through at least Friday morning.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and far east Tennessee Mountains.
For the Plateau, parts of the central valley, and southwest North
Carolina, snowfall of 1 inch is possible.

Travel late Thursday and Thursday night may become hazardous with
snow and ice covered roadways, especially across bridges and
overpasses.

The very cold airmass along with breezy west to northwest winds
will produce dangerous wind chills from 5 below zero to 5 above
zero across the higher terrain for late Thursday through Friday
night.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the
latest updates on this situation.
 
#2,564
#2,564
Matt2496 said:
Seems as if MRX is going exclusively with the European/UKMet models:

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

...A Strong Storm System will Effect the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians Thursday and Christmas Day...

A strong storm system will move across the area Thursday and
Christmas Day. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected area-wide
for late Wednesday night and Thursday with Windy conditions
across the Mountains and Foothills of far east Tennessee.

Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger
through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon
with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially
across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers
will linger through at least Friday morning.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and far east Tennessee Mountains.
For the Plateau, parts of the central valley, and southwest North
Carolina, snowfall of 1 inch is possible.

Travel late Thursday and Thursday night may become hazardous with
snow and ice covered roadways, especially across bridges and
overpasses.

The very cold airmass along with breezy west to northwest winds
will produce dangerous wind chills from 5 below zero to 5 above
zero across the higher terrain for late Thursday through Friday
night.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the
latest updates on this situation.
Click to expand...

What is the Euro showing?
 
#2,567
#2,567
The NWS in Morristown is going to be having a 1 hour live twitter chat where you can ask questions about the upcoming system. It will be tomorrow at 7:00 PM EST.
 
#2,568
#2,568
Seems to be a lot of agreement with an outcome near the ECMWF solution. HREF members are starting to get into that period, and are showing a similar pattern for accumulations. There will be a primary 2-3 hour window after the change from rain to snow when most of the snow accumulation will likely occur. Probably have some lingering snow showers overnight and into Christmas morning with such steep lapse rates, and I think the NAM Nest is showing this well.
snowfall_acc.us_state_ky_tn.png
 
#2,569
#2,569
MetVol said:
Seems to be a lot of agreement with an outcome near the ECMWF solution. HREF members are starting to get into that period, and are showing a similar pattern for accumulations. There will be a primary 2-3 hour window after the change from rain to snow when most of the snow accumulation will likely occur. Probably have some lingering snow showers overnight and into Christmas morning with such steep lapse rates, and I think the NAM Nest is showing this well.
snowfall_acc.us_state_ky_tn.png
Click to expand...

I think most of us would take that. Higher amounts and lower amounts possible due to bands. Safe bet would be .5-2 for most of the valley with 1-3 for the plateau. Mountains is still a unknown for me. Models showing showers lingering around longer for areas higher than 2500 feet.
 
#2,570
#2,570
rocktopper16 said:
I think most of us would take that. Higher amounts and lower amounts possible due to bands. Safe bet would be .5-2 for most of the valley with 1-3 for the plateau. Mountains is still a unknown for me. Models showing showers lingering around longer for areas higher than 2500 feet.
Click to expand...
Agreed. The banding will make exact amounts tricky. Think 2500'+ in the mountains will be primed for 4-6" or more amounts, especially those higher elevations across NE TN and SW VA. They'll likely add an inch or two in the upslope flow Thursday night into Christmas with the shallow moisture, low DGZ near the surface, and steep low-level lapse rates.
 
#2,571
#2,571
I was going to make a post, but Metvol and RT pretty much said what I was going to say, lol. All I will add is there will probably be some winter weather advisories issued for the central valley (Knox County and surrounding areas) and plateau this afternoon or tonight. There is a Winter Storm Watch for NE Tennessee and the Smokies.
 
#2,572
#2,572
Vol knight said:
I was going to make a post, but Metvol and RT pretty much said what I was going to say, lol. All I will add is there will probably be some winter weather advisories issued for the central valley (Knox County and surrounding areas) and plateau this afternoon or tonight. There is a Winter Storm Watch for NE Tennessee and the Smokies.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. If trends hold, Knox/central valley will have advisories issued this afternoon or evening with warnings for the mountains and probably NE TN. Big boom/bust potential, but overall, continue to have highest confidence in heaviest snow north and east of the Knox area (probably be a White Christmas in these areas).
 
#2,573
#2,573
MetVol said:
Absolutely. If trends hold, Knox/central valley will have advisories issued this afternoon or evening with warnings for the mountains and probably NE TN. Big boom/bust potential, but overall, continue to have highest confidence in heaviest snow north and east of the Knox area (probably be a White Christmas in these areas).
Click to expand...

With my definition of a white Christmas (snow on the ground regardless of the amount), I would say just about everyone in east TN will have one.
 
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#2,575
#2,575
Vol knight said:
With my definition of a white Christmas (snow on the ground regardless of the amount), I would say just about everyone in east TN will have one.
Click to expand...
Yeah, think most will see something. I guess I was slewing toward the NCEI 1"+ depth definition. Either way, pretty rare occurrence for this area.
 
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