East Tennessee Weather II

[MetVol]

Your thoughts on Morristown?

I'd go with 3"-4", but with the strong dynamics and banding around Morristown, there will likely be locally higher amounts.

 

[Matt2496]

Look at that temperature gradient

 

[rocktopper16]

You'll get the nice, big dendrites with such strong omega through the DGZ, so it'll be the big flakes. Should be fun to watch these big flakes and high snow rates at home, but you sure won't want to be out in it. Hazardous travel tonight. You know it's going to be rough when you're looking at possible 3"-4" in 3-4 hours.

I know we are in now forecast mode, But have you checked out the latest models?
My god! HRRR and 3k Nam.!

RGEM may have called this one.

 

[rocktopper16]

Band starting to setup on radar. Also, the front entering the valley. Time to crack open a cold one and watch the temps plummet!

 

[MetVol]

I know we are in now forecast mode, But have you checked out the latest models?
My god! HRRR and 3k Nam.!

RGEM may have called this one.

Yep! HRRR and NAMNest really showing that enhanced banding potential. May wind up getting some decent low-end warning criteria snow totals in the valley between Knoxville and Morristown! I'll take it!

 

[rocktopper16]

Yep! HRRR and NAMNest really showing that enhanced banding potential. May wind up getting some decent low-end warning criteria snow totals in the valley between Knoxville and Morristown! I'll take it!

Cold looks to be pouring past the plateau. If that’s the case, I would bet we see most of the puddled rain evaporate before the bands get here.

It’s worth a mention, depending on how south the Lee side low goes we may see greater totals in all valley locations.

Also, I’m curious what wrap around moisture will be available tomorrow for us. Some modes are hinting at some wide spread showers. Thatd definitely make my year.

 

[rocktopper16]

Don’t be fooled by the radar. It’ll back fill, this cold air will squeeze out every bit of moisture available.

Currently setting at 44 temps dropped 4 degrees in about 10 mins. Strong gust spurts out of the north.

 

[Vol knight]

I'm sorry I haven't been posting. I'm stuck at work until 4, so that's when I'll be able to really post observations.

 

[rocktopper16]

Rockwood Tn.
Hopefully see the same for valley locations

 

[hUTch2002]

Rockwood Tn.
Hopefully see the same for valley locations View attachment 333725

What kind of total do you see for Rockwood? I’ll be out in Kingston so I assume it’ll be similar.

 

[MetVol]

Don’t be fooled by the radar. It’ll back fill, this cold air will squeeze out every bit of moisture available.

Currently setting at 44 temps dropped 4 degrees in about 10 mins. Strong gust spurts out of the north.

Yeah as the strong dynamics swings in this evening, it'll fill in fast! Should be fun to watch. Overnight through Friday, should continue to squeeze out that remaining moisture with such strong low-level lapse rates and shallow moisture. Just an amazing dynamic system.

 

[MetVol]

What kind of total do you see for Rockwood? I’ll be out in Kingston so I assume it’ll be similar.

I'd say Kingston will be on the west side of the primary snow bands that, so I'm betting accumulation will be limited. Maybe an inch or less. All depends on where the band sets up, though.

 

[rocktopper16]

Yeah as the strong dynamics swings in this evening, it'll fill in fast! Should be fun to watch. Overnight through Friday, should continue to squeeze out that remaining moisture with such strong low-level lapse rates and shallow moisture. Just an amazing dynamic system.

Would you agree we should see snow starting to fall around 3:30? Or would you push that out another hour?

Also, watching the vapor loop you can see low level moisture backfilling past Nashville. HRRR still on attack through 6 hours. MRX still sticking to their guns.

 

[rocktopper16]

What kind of total do you see for Rockwood? I’ll be out in Kingston so I assume it’ll be similar.

There is a strong line on where the banding sets up. In a system like this areas east of 1-40 usually have the best chance of seeing snow and areas north have the best shot of seeing more accumulating snow. However, it just depends on where the bands will be. 10 mins up the road may see nothing and you get 2 inches. That’s how critical this system could be.

 

[MetVol]

Would you agree we should see snow starting to fall around 3:30? Or would you push that out another hour?

Also, watching the vapor loop you can see low level moisture backfilling past Nashville. HRRR still on attack through 6 hours. MRX still sticking to their guns.

True, can start to see the evidence of that strong upper divergence in WV imagery across eastern Middle TN. I do think you'll start to see a good changeover between 3-4pm with rates really picking up between 4-5pm.

 

[rocktopper16]

@MetVol

 

[rocktopper16]

With that radar post, that’ll be where everything starts filling in (hopefully).

 

[hUTch2002]

I’m out with the in-laws between Oliver Springs and Kingston. Snow just started falling.

 

[rocktopper16]

Snowing hard in Madisonville

 

[hUTch2002]

Snowing hard in Madisonville

Snowing hard out here but small flakes.

 

[Matt2496]

Just starting to sleet here in Blount

 

[rocktopper16]

Dusting so far, big wet flakes. .5inch a hour I suppose!

 

[hUTch2002]

Dusting so far, big wet flakes. .5inch a hour I suppose!

Yep. Dusting out this way too.

 

[Matt2496]

Did yall see the latest Euro run at 240? LOL is all I have to say.

 

[MetVol]

Developing and transitioning pretty much as expected! Think the HRRR and NAM are continuing to handle totals pretty well for this evening. Guidance has been consistent all day.