East Tennessee Weather II

#3,227
#3,227
Latest from NWS Nashville. Like their totals overall and they could definitely go up slightly or down quite a bit as this system is better resolved. Cold temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning, along with snowcover or wet roads, could cause some travel headaches.



Edit: Also wanted to add in Ken's forecast. He does a great job at analyzing these events and cautiously and scientifically forecasting them.



And the NWS Morristown take from this afternoon:
 
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#3,228
#3,228
Heads up!!!

If you are driving in Knoxville or surrounding areas, there is patchy freezing fog currently, which will make roads and bridges icy. Please be careful driving tonight and tomorrow morning if you need to be on the roads.
 
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#3,229
#3,229
In a follow up to my previous post:

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Visibility to near one quarter of a mile or less in
freezing fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee. (Blount, Cocke, Hamblin, Knox, Jefferson, and Sevier counties)

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility
and potential frost on bridges and secondary roadways.
Click to expand...
 
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#3,231
#3,231
GFS looks good for a decent snowfall across the state. I am guessing that winter weather advisories will be posted in nearly all areas that don't upgrade to a winter storm warning.
 
#3,235
#3,235
Take this as a WSW considering it meets WSW criteria.

WWA Summary for Winter Weather Advisory Issued by MRX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

TNZ016-017-035-036-038>040-042-044-046-069-070-073-060400-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.220106T1700Z-220107T1200Z/
Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington-Northwest Carter-Knox-Jefferson-
North Sevier-
Including the cities of Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN,
South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Clinton,
Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport,
Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Bearden, Knoxville,
Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill,
Dandridge, White Pine, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville,
Seymour, and Pigeon Forge
259 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches.

* WHERE...Central and northern valley of East Tennessee.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
#3,242
#3,242
This is the 18z HRRR. GEFS and SREF means are about 3.5" and 2" respectively in Knoxville. Don't think all of that accumulates. Still think 1-3" across the valley is a good bet on average.

1641421472169.png

The lower totals along the western foothills likely has a lot to do with the southerly flow downslope along the western slope of the mountains. Could be just enough to mix in more rain and sleet in those areas and lower totals south of I-81/40 across Sevier, Jefferson, Cocke, and Greene. We'll see how the 0z guidance comes in.
 
#3,245
#3,245
0z HRRR. Bad trend for snow lovers in Knoxville. More northerly track and warmer temperatures is hinting at mixing some sleet and rain in.

1641432614991.png
 
#3,247
#3,247
MetVol said:
0z HRRR. Bad trend for snow lovers in Knoxville. More northerly track and warmer temperatures is hinting at mixing some sleet and rain in.

View attachment 426209
Click to expand...

Question: What makes the HRRR the best? Seems as if you trust that, discounting the GFS, and even the EURO which have been more aggressive. Is there a reason why? Are those models not as good? I would certainly like to know.
 
#3,249
#3,249
There's such a tight gradient. There are counties where the southern portion gets a dusting and the northern gets 6+ inches. Just a few miles could make all the difference.
 
#3,250
#3,250
Matt2496 said:
There's such a tight gradient. There are counties where the southern portion gets a dusting and the northern gets 6+ inches. Just a few miles could make all the difference.
Click to expand...

I see this a lot actually. I sit at 1450 feet in elevation. Just a few miles away it sits at 850 to 1000 feet. On average the temperature drops 3 degrees per 1000 feet in elevation.....that 1 degree can make all the difference in the world in accumulating snowfall and melting snowflakes or a mix.
 
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