East Tennessee Weather II

#3,276
#3,276
ckilla27 said:
Your in Hardin Valley and it’s raining? That’s crazy, I’m in Karns and it hasn’t rained once it’s all snow
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We started out snow but then it switched and we haven’t seen any flakes in half an hour. I’m wondering if we will even get a dusting at this point.
 
#3,279
#3,279
Wow. The radar shows the moisture busting up pretty well to the Southwest so something that seemed like a sure 2 inches is looking like a big nothing burger again for West Knox.
 
#3,280
#3,280
hUTch2002 said:
We started out snow but then it switched and we haven’t seen any flakes in half an hour. I’m wondering if we will even get a dusting at this point.
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knox-townVOL said:
Sure doesn’t seem like it. Unless the rain stops now and it switches back to some serious snow.
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Should get it to switch back over later as cooler air aloft moves in. Accumulation with that won't be a lot but still could see close to an inch when it switches back with a band of light snow in the colder air this evening between 5pm and 9pm. Best accumulation further north and along higher elevations.

The HRRR is having its issues with being too warm in spots, but still think this general trend is on track for the remainder of the day based on current observations.

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#3,282
#3,282
hUTch2002 said:
Wow. The radar shows the moisture busting up pretty well to the Southwest so something that seemed like a sure 2 inches is looking like a big nothing burger again for West Knox.
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Have to be cautious with radar in these situations because it overshoots the precipitation pretty quickly when a lot of this rain/snow/mix is fairly shallow. The light snow band I mentioned previously should move in later and give us some snow in the cooler air before it tapers off. This band is currently out near Nashville.
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#3,287
#3,287
We have been mostly snow, but as typical when you are in an area with a shallow warm nose when the precip got light it was mostly light sleet. Heavier bursts were mostly all snow. Dynamic cooling in the mid levels with the heavier precip.
 
#3,288
#3,288
Was just talking to my mom who lives in Oak Ridge and it's barely snowed there. Maybe enough to cover the grass a little bit, but definitely nothing on the roads.
 
#3,289
#3,289
bleedorange0037 said:
Was just talking to my mom who lives in Oak Ridge and it's barely snowed there. Maybe enough to cover the grass a little bit, but definitely nothing on the roads.
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I'm at work in Oak Ridge, and i can confirm that there was golf ball size flakes earlier. None of it was sticking to the roads, but it was laying on the grass.
 
#3,290
#3,290
The snow finally arrived in Hardin Valley. Coming down hard but small flakes. It’s coating things quickly though.
 
#3,292
#3,292
MetVol said:
Have to be cautious with radar in these situations because it overshoots the precipitation pretty quickly when a lot of this rain/snow/mix is fairly shallow. The light snow band I mentioned previously should move in later and give us some snow in the cooler air before it tapers off. This band is currently out near Nashville.
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That’s band isn’t moving West to East though. It’s moving Northeast so it’ll pass North of Knoxville.
 
#3,293
#3,293
Matt2496 said:
They’ve dropped the advisories for the valley…
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This one was a disappointment for sure as everything looked great until the last 12-18 hours. We won’t get squat the rest of this Winter. I hope it just goes ahead and warms up now.
 
#3,295
#3,295
hUTch2002 said:
That’s band isn’t moving West to East though. It’s moving Northeast so it’ll pass North of Knoxville.
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Correct, most of the activity within it is moving NE, but the actual forcing there should result in some light continued snow through 9-10pm in East TN (generally near I-40 and north). Not a lot, but enough to make it slick out with temps finally dropping below freezing and into the 20s.

Definitely a disappointment for most of the valley that wanted snow, but when the upper trough stays so far north, it's always hard to get valley snow in these setups.
 
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#3,298
#3,298
volsarelife1 said:
Local media and NWS getting hammered on social media and deservingly so
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Eh, it's tough to forecast around here, and this was an especially tricky setup. It's tough enough on the plains or upper Midwest when you have limited terrain impacts to really deal with. I know most of the mets I've talked to around here have been pretty cautious about this one and never quite forecasted what the higher models were showing. It's just hard to get much valley snow with a shortwave upper trough that's this far north. Ultimately wound up with a gradient where Knoxville gets a dusting so far and they've got 4" about 30 miles north of town.

Just have to try to learn some lessons from this event and move on.
 
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#3,299
#3,299
MetVol said:
Eh, it's tough to forecast around here, and this was an especially tricky setup. It's tough enough on the plains or upper Midwest when you have limited terrain impacts to really deal with. I know most of the mets I've talked to around here have been pretty cautious about this one and never quite forecasted what the higher models were showing. It's just hard to get much valley snow with a shortwave upper trough that's this far north. Ultimately wound up with a gradient where Knoxville gets a dusting so far and they've got 4" about 30 miles north of town.

Just have to try to learn some lessons from this event and move on.
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Definitely agree. But the local and NWS people for sure deserve criticism on it. Most other jobs people would get criticized for messing up this badly
 
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