East Tennessee Weather II

[DarthVisor]

My opinion

GFS & EURO for long casting
Then GEM for 72 hours
Then NAM for 20-48hours
Then HRRR for now casting

Also look at Wator vapor maps, Temps, Ratio’s and odds and ins.

So, right now the NAM is where it's at.

 

[rocktopper16]

Still nothing from NWS
National Weather Service

ational Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...
Broken to overcast midlevel clouds now moving into West TN is
associated with isentropic lift at the 275-285 K level, and will
enter our area tonight. Low levels remain quite dry so no precip is
expected. The main impact will to keep low temps a little above this
morning`s lows, mainly in the upper teens north to low 20s central
and south. These clouds will exit tomorrow morning, with mostly
sunny skies through midday. This along with weak 850 mb warm
advection in a SW flow will bring high temps into the 40s for most
spots. By late afternoon, clouds will be increasing again ahead of
the next system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)...
Long term forecast continues to be on track for the most part
with a snowy system Tuesday and bitterly cold temperatures through
mid week, followed by a nice warmup for the weekend. Having said
that, adjustments continue to be made for Tuesday and snow totals
have crept up ever so slightly.

Monday night we are dry as we await the arrival of our cold front
that is associated with a strong area of low pressure across the
Great Lakes Region. Clouds and southwesterly flow will keep temps in
the mid to upper 20s. On Tuesday, a positively tilted and elongated
trough are just back to our northwest with associated cold front
across West TN. Lift still remains plentiful, amount of moisture
still the biggest question. Again, this will be an all snow event
from start to finish. Models still doing a good job with agreement
on arrival time of precip. It generally looks like the snow will
arrive on the central and northern Cumberland Plateau between 8Z and
12z, then progress into valley locations between 12z and 18z, then
over to northeast TN and our eastern mountains between 18z and 21z.
The NAM and ECMWF continue to be wetter because of the slower
progression of the trough and front, while the GFS is still drier.
Relied heavily on WPC QPF grids for this forecast, which give us
slightly higher snow totals than the previous forecast. Amounts
still aren`t overly impressive but it does look like enough snow
will fall to cause travel issues during the day. As of now, 0.5
inches to 1 inch possible across the southern TN Valley up to I-40,
1 to 1.5 inches possible from I-40 north up through northeast TN.
Portions of southwest VA could see 1 to 2 inches and our highest
terrain areas will see 2 to 3 inches. Southwest NC should see the
lightest amounts with around half an inch expected in the lower
elevations and up to 1 inch across the highest terrain.

Snow gradually tapers off Tuesday evening but will linger during the
overnight areas for areas mainly east of I-40. Lows will be in the
single digits so whatever snow has accumulated by sunset will not
melt overnight. A few flurries still possible early Wednesday
morning across our eastern mountains before the trough pushes
further east during the day. Highs on Wednesday still the coldest of
the period with highs in the low to mid 20s, which is 20 to 25
degrees below normal. The highs will be colder than our normal lows
for this time of year. Some slick spots still possible early
Wednesday morning.

For the rest of the period we moderate our temperatures as ridging
builds across the region. This weekend we are back into the low to
mid 50s. Our next chance of rain comes late on Sunday as another
trough and low pressure swing through the area.

&&

 

[rocktopper16]

so, if i'm looking at a map that says 12z, does that mean it would be 6am our time? What i read seemed to indicate this was based on the greenwich time. I may have misread, but i wanted to ask because i knew one of you guys would know.

12pm

 

[rocktopper16]

So, right now the NAM is where it's at.

Yes. We are in short range. NAM holds with the 18Z run.

 

[rocktopper16]

I will say higher totals are creeping into East Tennessee with every run.

 

[rocktopper16]

Current Radar.

 

[rocktopper16]

Anyone in Memphis seeing snow?

 

[rocktopper16]

COmpared to NAM

 

[rocktopper16]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
248 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville,
Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg,
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta,
Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville,
Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg,
and Pulaski
248 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIKELY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...

Snow accumulations are likely once again for all of Middle
Tennessee Monday night and Tuesday. Snowfall totals are expected
to range from one half inch to 2 inches, with the higher totals on
the Cumberland Plateau.

While there could be a mix of snow and rain for a couple hours in
areas northwest of metro Nashville late Monday afternoon, the
changeover to all snow is expected to happen quickly for everyone
after sunset Monday.

Snows will continue throughout the day Tuesday, so while
accumulation are not expected to be more than one and a half
inches west of the Cumberland Plateau, both the morning and
afternoon commutes could be slick ones.

Please stay tuned to your local media outlets and future NWS
Nashville forecasts for the latest on this next round of snowfall
for Middle Tennessee.

$$



Starting to roll in JC

 

[gordonr24]

Anyone in Memphis seeing snow?

Not reaching ground here

 

[rocktopper16]

.

 

[rocktopper16]

Not reaching ground here

Looks to be breaking up soon as it hit the state line

 

[rocktopper16]

Plenty of moisture to work with. Gonna be fun to track this.

 

[VolnJC]

Still no watches or advisories for us...Morristown shares my skepticism for clippers...they just don't have much energy or precip

 

[Vol knight]

Still no watches or advisories for us...Morristown shares my skepticism for clippers...they just don't have much energy or precip

I don't think it's a clipper. Clippers don't stretch from Texas to New England.

 

[rocktopper16]

VK HRRR starting to show a possible snow Monday as the system is stronger coming out of the Dakotas.Thoughts?

 

[rocktopper16]

NAM holds

 

[DarthVisor]

NAM holds

Pics?

 

[rocktopper16]

Slowed down and they 12K showed ore moisture return. Why MRX is holding off. No idea on what it’s going to do.

 

[rocktopper16]

.

 

[DarthVisor]

.

Bring it on!

 

[rocktopper16]

Radar looks good

 

[Vol knight]

Slowed down and they 12K showed ore moisture return. Why MRX is holding off. No idea on what it’s going to do.

MRX isn't going to issue any advisories yet. They typically wait until within 24 hours of the storm arriving to issue that.

 

[rocktopper16]

MRX isn't going to issue any advisories yet. They typically wait until within 24 hours of the storm arriving to issue that.

Special weather statements and hazourdous outlooks my friend.

 

[Vol knight]

Special weather statements and hazourdous outlooks my friend.

I'm talking about Winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings, etc.