East Tennessee Weather II

#1,526
#1,526
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Thats total snowfall through December 17. You would have to stop the map like Monday night DEC 10 to get any accuracy for this weekend.
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It didn't change much

fv3p_asnow_us_12.png
 
#1,531
#1,531
Vol knight said:
I will say that out of all of the models since this storm first popped up, it's been the most steady. Old GFS, CMC, Euro, and UK have each had sizable changes from run to run at one point or another.
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Are those agreeing with each other between runs or is the changes far apart between models?
 
#1,534
#1,534
Forecasts have finally settled on us getting 4-12 inches. Still a big range, but enough for us to go ahead and pull the trigger on canceling our event.
 
#1,535
#1,535
Vol knight said:
Old GFS right now is on an island. It's the only model that is showing a progressive type storm (meaning it doesnt hang around long).
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With some of the new data in the models showing decent snow whats the hold up of NWS issuing warnings for valley areas VK?
 
#1,541
#1,541
Orange_Vol1321 said:
With some of the new data in the models showing decent snow whats the hold up of NWS issuing warnings for valley areas VK?
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Just woke up. They are probably waiting until the afternoon timeframe comes (somewhere around 3:30-4:00 PM). The GFS is starting to cave into the Euro, NAM, and GFS FV3.
 
#1,542
#1,542
Vol knight said:
Just woke up. They are probably waiting until the afternoon timeframe comes (somewhere around 3:30-4:00 PM). The GFS is starting to cave into the Euro, NAM, and GFS FV3.
Click to expand...
The latest models show decent snow in the valley but the temps listed for those areas during the event would insist rain. Is there a scenario of dynamic cooling going on?
 
#1,543
#1,543
Orange_Vol1321 said:
The latest models show decent snow in the valley but the temps listed for those areas during the event would insist rain. Is there a scenario of dynamic cooling going on?
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Yes, I do believe there's going to be some dynamic cooling taking place, especially with how heavy the precipitation looks to be on the latest model runs.
 
#1,545
#1,545
If I had to take a guess, I think there will be a winter weather advisory extended into parts of the valley and the plateau could be upgraded to winter storm warning.
 
#1,546
#1,546
The new GFS FV3 has been remarkably consistent for many days now. If it ends up being right, that bodes well for the model that will become the official GFS model next month.
 
#1,548
#1,548
I almost completely forgot. With the ratios we are expecting to get, we have to shave about 30% off the totals when we read the models, because the ratios aren't going to be 10:1 like the model runs we are using are showing.
 
#1,550
#1,550
Chatting with a friend of mine who is also a weather enthusiast and lives in Campbell county. He told me that he wouldn't be surprised if Morristown drags their feet with the advisories and warnings and doesnt issue any until snow is on the ground. Do you guys remember earlier this week we had a period of light snow showers and flurries move through parts of East TN? I actually ended up getting a little over 1 inch of snow near La Follette when I was only expected to get a light dusting. Jamestown got around 3 inches of snow. Both Campbell and Fentress counties didnt have a single winter weather advisory despite that.
 
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