East Tennessee Weather II

#1,479
#1,479
Vol knight said:
ZJq9hPM.jpg
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Bump. Still one of my favorite weather memes.
 
#1,482
#1,482
Here's an excerpt from Morristown:

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)... The main focus of the long term is the winter storm system over the weekend. Some minor changes here and there from previous forecast but overall not any significant changes. Biggest changes were to increase snow totals further southward into the northern TN Valley and therefore have expanded the winter storm watch by a row of counties. Also included Clay County NC. The biggest challenge with this forecast continues to be the tight snowfall gradient that will occur and pinpointing the gradient is very difficult. North of Knoxville to Tri-Cities continues to be the transition/gradient zone where the most uncertainty lies with totals. South of Knoxville toward Chattanooga high confidence on totals and north or Tri-Cities up into southwest VA high confidence. Gradient zone uncertainty will likely continue to be the case even as the event is close to starting.
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As it says in the quote, there's still a good bit of uncertainty with this system, so I wouldn't take any models runs right now as gospel.
 
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#1,484
#1,484
Hey guys...what's the prognosis for here in Harlan county Kentucky

Am I reading that last report just posted right?, Is it saying that we aren't in a high confidence area for this storm?

Am I looking at a big mess, or total zilch?
 
#1,485
#1,485
Forecast on weatherunderground now says my area only has a 50% chance of snow showers, after saying we were going to get 8 inches a day ago.
 
#1,486
#1,486
ButchPlz said:
Forecast on weatherunderground now says my area only has a 50% chance of snow showers, after saying we were going to get 8 inches a day ago.
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The forecasts have been all over the place for the last 24 hours. Watch this turn into a blizzard.
 
#1,490
#1,490
mrorange211 said:
It's gonna be cold rain guys
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2 trains of though on this... I'm working so generally speaking that means a buttload of snow to fall (at least where I'm working anyways.)

I had crappy tires so I just dropped a grand on 4 new ones because of the winter weather - I want to get home after work - so it won't snow because of the new tire purchase.

So 50/50 based on that. Probably snows in Johnson City, while it does nothing/cold rains towards Kingsport way.
 
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#1,493
#1,493
Vol knight said:
If anything, the most recent model runs (6z old GFS and Euro) show a suppressed (southern jog) look where east Tennessee misses out on a good bit of precipitation. However, that might be changing soon, as it looks like it's creeping back north on the 12z old GFS.
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No rain is a hell of a lot better than cold rain
 
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#1,494
#1,494
Ulysees E. McGill said:
Hey guys...what's the prognosis for here in Harlan county Kentucky

Am I reading that last report just posted right?, Is it saying that we aren't in a high confidence area for this storm?

Am I looking at a big mess, or total zilch?
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With you being in the more mountainous area of Southeastern KY, you're probably in a good spot to see a good bit of snow.

Guys, like I said earlier, it's way too soon to talk any certainties with this system. the models throughout today and tonight will get a better sample of this system and hopefully we'll have a better picture of what will happen by late tonight into tomorrow.
 
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#1,496
#1,496
As a side note: This will be the last month that the Old GFS will be running. Starting January, the new GFS FV3 will be NOAA's weather model.
 
#1,497
#1,497
Vol knight said:
With you being in the more mountainous area of Southeastern KY, you're probably in a good spot to see a good bit of snow.

Guys, like I said earlier, it's way too soon to talk any certainties with this system. the models throughout today and tonight will get a better sample of this system and hopefully we'll have a better picture of what will happen by late tonight into tomorrow.
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Glancing at the models they aren't really showing moisture above the TN/KY line.
 
#1,499
#1,499
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Glancing at the models they aren't really showing moisture above the TN/KY line.
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One of the biases with the models (particularly with the GFS) is that the northern portion of the precipitation shield is generally undermodeled (meaning that there can be precipitation happening that isnt showing up on the model). For example, this morning's model runs didn't have any precip for the Chattanooga area this morning, and yet there were reports of light sleet and rain.
 
#1,500
#1,500
NOAA forecast is saying we can expect 5-9 inches.

Weather.com and wunderground saying 50% chance of 1-3 inches.

Local news says 4-8 inches.

Another local station showed the latest GFS model, which has 0 inches here.

I don't know WTF to do about Sunday, we're closing in on decision time and I'd rather not toss away the money if I don't need to.
 
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