East Tennessee Weather II

[Vol knight]

Is all the bugs worked out of it yet?

With this new model, they won't be using as much resources as the old GFS. Also, it will be more High resolution, so hopefully, they'll be able to nail down forecasts at a more local level. I'm still trying to figure out what its bias is going to be, and this system will be a good test to find out.

 

[Vol knight]

NOAA forecast is saying we can expect 5-9 inches.

Weather.com and wunderground saying 50% chance of 1-3 inches.

Local news says 4-8 inches.

Another local station showed the latest GFS model, which has 0 inches here.

I don't know WTF to do about Sunday, we're closing in on decision time and I'd rather not toss away the money if I don't need to.

Where are you located? I can't give out an official forecast yet, but I do have a good idea of where the hardest hit areas will be.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

NOAA forecast is saying we can expect 5-9 inches.

Weather.com and wunderground saying 50% chance of 1-3 inches.

Local news says 4-8 inches.

Another local station showed the latest GFS model, which has 0 inches here.

I don't know WTF to do about Sunday, we're closing in on decision time and I'd rather not toss away the money if I don't need to.

Town?

 

[ButchPlz]

To both @Orange_Vol1321 and @Vol knight, I am in Roanoke, VA.

 

[Vol knight]

To both @Orange_Vol1321 and @Vol knight, I am in Roanoke, VA.

Considering that you are under a Winter Storm Watch, I would say that you have a pretty good chance of seeing a good amount of snow.

 

[ButchPlz]

Considering that you are under a Winter Storm Watch, I would say that you have a pretty good chance of seeing a good amount of snow.

I'd usually agree, but we've had a few of those watches and warnings for other events lately and gotten nothing.

 

[Vol knight]

I'd usually agree, but we've had a few of those watches and warnings for other events lately and gotten nothing.

Generally, watches and warnings like that aren't just issued on a whim. Sure, there's always a chance that it might not pan out the way they are thinking. However, they obviously have enough confidence to issue a watch, and watches should always be taken seriously, IMO. The way I've looked at storms in recent years is that it's better to be prepared than not to be. If nothing happens, great. If it does get bad, you've got nothing to worry about.

 

[Vol knight]

The 12z Euro is running right now, so I'll be giving an update on all of the latest model runs around 1:30 or so.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

2 trains of though on this... I'm working so generally speaking that means a buttload of snow to fall (at least where I'm working anyways.)

I had crappy tires so I just dropped a grand on 4 new ones because of the winter weather - I want to get home after work - so it won't snow because of the new tire purchase.

So 50/50 based on that. Probably snows in Johnson City, while it does nothing/cold rains towards Kingsport way.

It won’t snow in Kingsport because Eastman ruins it every time.

 

[TNsnyper20]

It won’t snow in Kingsport because Eastman ruins it every time.

The Eastman bubble. Lol

 

[Vol knight]

12z Old GFS:

12z NAM:

12z Canadian:

12z GFS FV3:

 

[Vol knight]

For some reason, it's not letting me post the Euro. It's pretty much similar to the NAM.

 

[Coug]

Rain event for the Knoxville area. That lovely valley affect.

 

[TNsnyper20]

All but one showing good snow for tri-cities. Good!

 

[yoyoyoyo]

Plateau looks pretty good too

 

[Vol knight]

Plateau looks pretty good too

The thing I dont understand is why is Claiborne county included in the watch and not the rest of the Northern Plateau (Campbell, Morgan, and Scott counties). It's not like they are getting more snow on the models.

 

[DarthVisor]

Depending on where you look, it looks like the southern valley still has a chance at some snow.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

For some reason, it's not letting me post the Euro. It's pretty much similar to the NAM.

The Canadian go a little clowny?

 

[Matt2496]

Well crud. Looks like ill only be getting a couple inches.

 

[Matt2496]

Seems like there's a pocket of warmer air in the valley that'll inhibit snow accumulations.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Vk you see the 18z FV3? It's pushing the warm nose back south.

 

[Matt2496]

Vk you see the 18z FV3? It's pushing the warm nose back south.

You mean this?

 

[DarthVisor]

You mean this?

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

I'll post it. Not sure how reliable it is since it's new.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

You mean this?

Thats total snowfall through December 17. You would have to stop the map like Monday night DEC 10 to get any accuracy for this weekend.