East Tennessee Weather

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#9,901
#9,901
I sure hope the canadian model is wrong next Friday/Saturday. Showing bad ice. The GFS shows it slightly warmer here and the ice being further North in KY.
 
#9,902
#9,902
Orange_Vol1321 said:
I sure hope the canadian model is wrong next Friday/Saturday. Showing bad ice. The GFS shows it slightly warmer here and the ice being further North in KY.
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The latest Canadian run has backed off the ice storm for most of Earth Tennessee. Like I said in my earlier post, if it's still on the models 5 days before, then I'll start following it more.
 
#9,903
#9,903
well it hit 25 degrees here today for the high,lol in my little hollar :) I'm ready for some spring time weather all ready

which isn't going to happen anytime soon :)
 
#9,906
#9,906
It's about time to start following the the upcoming system on Sunday. Not for Snow, but for freezing rain and sleet. This is just one model, but here's the 18z GFS run for total ice accretion Sunday into Monday.
 

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#9,907
#9,907
Vol knight said:
It's about time to start following the the upcoming system on Sunday. Not for Snow, but for freezing rain and sleet. This is just one model, but here's the 18z GFS run for total ice accretion Sunday into Monday.
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Been watching it. Crossville definitely don't need ice again.

Edit: High of 31 for Crossville Sunday. Yikes
 
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#9,910
#9,910
Coug said:
What about the valley? Is there a model for us?
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The valley is on the model I posted. Right now, it's showing the Plateau as the bullseye, but in this setup of the system, the cold air tends to sag a little bit more south and east than what the model is depicting. It's still subject to change, so I'll be keeping an eye on it and posting regular updates.
 
#9,914
#9,914
Vol knight said:
0z GFS run:
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Yep was seeing that Nashville scenario earlier. I'm sure some cold slides a little more East of the plateau that will allow ice but I hope that warm valley air we all cuss when we dont get snow amounts is here when this hits. I don't want any ice in Knoxville. Lol
 
#9,916
#9,916
I have some good news this morning. On the latest GFS run, the ice threat has significantly decreased. I'm not ready to rule out a potential ice storm, as this is only one model run. Need to see consistent runs after this one showing that.

12z GFS:
 

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#9,919
#9,919
The red mark indicates Knox County for those not used to seeing the unnamed county outlines.
zr_acc_us_ov_3.jpg

https://s30.postimg.org/ww62ta6tt/zr_acc_us_ov_3.jpg
 
#9,921
#9,921
I'm sorry for not posting model runs on a regular basis. I've been very busy recently. I'm going to give my forecast for this system:

I'm expecting this to primarily be a rain maker of a system for most of East Tennessee. Temperatures will be warming up big time throughout the day today and through the overnight. Some places could get close to 70 tonight. Once we get close to sunrise tomorrow, temperatures will be rapidly falling throughout the day. In a period of 3-6 hours, we could see a 20-30 degree drop in temps. The ice threat will remain in the Plateau and points west, with ice accretion Sunday ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 of an inch. On the back end of the system on Sunday, we could see a brief transition to flurries or snow showers before it tapers off. No snow accumulation is expected in the valley, with only minor accumulations (dusting) in the higher elevations.
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#9,923
#9,923
jhamilton1208 said:
Generally is the Canadian or the GFS more accurate during the winter? Or is it hit and miss? Thanks for the postings, btw.
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I think the GFS is generally the better model, but the Canadian isn't terrible. The weather model that most weather enthusiasts and meteorologists call the king model is the European.
 
#9,924
#9,924
Good thing that WATE still doesn't do the 6 degree guarantee..colder air got trapped in the valley and instead of low 60s...I don't think we made it over 45 today...no white Christmas for ET this year...of course I'll be in Florida and its supposed to be 80 something every day there
 
#9,925
#9,925
VolnJC said:
Good thing that WATE still doesn't do the 6 degree guarantee..colder air got trapped in the valley and instead of low 60s...I don't think we made it over 45 today...no white Christmas for ET this year...of course I'll be in Florida and its supposed to be 80 something every day there
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They didn't say that the temps would get to the 60s today. They were talking about tonight. It's 67 degrees right now in Knoxville.
 
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