East Tennessee Weather

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#10,127
#10,127
Roger that. Looks like the RGEM is moving moisture back East.

The models are all over the place, what is making this storm so hard for them in your opinion?
 
#10,128
#10,128
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Roger that. Looks like the RGEM is moving moisture back East.

The models are all over the place, what is making this storm so hard for them in your opinion?
Click to expand...

There's many factors that can give the models trouble. I think one factor is that there's multiple waves of storms that the models are trying to key in on.
 
#10,130
#10,130
12 GFS has the same track, but the precipitation shield has extended northward into parts of the valley on the 2nd wave.

12z GFS with 15:1 ratio:
 

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#10,132
#10,132
The GFS has us in Central NC getting about a foot. Can't wait, time to get to the grocery and liquor store.
 
#10,136
#10,136
So basically it's still a difficult system to predict. Looks they've already treated some roads in Knoxville.
 
#10,137
#10,137
new alert

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1108 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

...SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY
EVENING AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU OF EAST TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS. THIS MAY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS TO
MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

SECOND SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE EAST COAST.

TNZ016-017-036>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-086-VAZ006-008-060400-
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.170106T0000Z-170106T1200Z/
HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-
JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST MONROE-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...
CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...
NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...
LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...LEBANON...ABINGDON
1108 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH...WITH A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS ONCE THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP
FIRST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WHICH WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
 
#10,138
#10,138
Here's a loop of previous GFS total precipitation model map runs to now (It's not a snow map. It's the amount of moisture). Do you guys notice the northwest trend?

gfs_apcpn_seus_fh60_trend.thumb.gif.d211032bfcb3215a50a4a98f41e033ca.gif



Edit: I decided to repost this since I messed up the first time, lol.
 
#10,141
#10,141
VolnJC said:
new alert

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1108 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

...SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY
EVENING AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU OF EAST TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS. THIS MAY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS TO
MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

SECOND SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE EAST COAST.

TNZ016-017-036>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-086-VAZ006-008-060400-
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.170106T0000Z-170106T1200Z/
HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-
JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST MONROE-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...
CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...
NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...
LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...LEBANON...ABINGDON
1108 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH...WITH A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS ONCE THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP
FIRST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WHICH WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Click to expand...

Even if it doesn't hit here I hope you have a 4WD and heading in to a state with 6 snowplows for the entire state. Lol
 
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#10,143
#10,143
12z GEFS mean (GFS ensembles) shifted Northwest. 12z UKMET also looking good. Now to see what the 12z Euro shows.

FYI, this will be the last time I post the medium to long range models (GFS, GEFS, Euro, EPS, Canadian, and UKMET) for this system. It's close enough where the short range models become more effective.
 
#10,144
#10,144
Lots of precip on radar but it's not hitting the ground in many locations. Looks like cold dry air might eat up a lot of the totals from the first wave, that should help though if the second one hits...the first one was never going to be a big snow producer anyway.
 
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