East Tennessee Weather

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#10,703
#10,703
DarthVisor said:
Thank you.

So, there are two events with the biggie coming in the afternoon/evening for East TN? And the severity of event 2 is dependent upon what happens in event 1?
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Yup! Event 1 could stabilize the air. If it misses us it could make event 2 worse. Event 1 still could be bad.
 
#10,704
#10,704
What happens a lot of times with warm fronts is that it'll pass through and after it does, there's breaks in the clouds and it gives the atmosphere fuel to reenergize.
 
#10,705
#10,705
Aldrich's 11pm forecast didn't have storms coming in until around 7pm. The futurecast he showed didn't look too impressive but those are to be taken with a grain of salt.
 
#10,706
#10,706
Coug said:
Aldrich's 11pm forecast didn't have storms coming in until around 7pm. The futurecast he showed didn't look too impressive but those are to be taken with a grain of salt.
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The funny thing is that David Aldrich often times says to ignore the news station's very own in house model (futurecast). When I visited the local 8 news station awhile back, Heather Haley even admitted that the futurecast isn't a great model.
 
#10,710
#10,710
rocktopper16 said:
Waiting for the 2 A.M update 😶😶😶
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Same here. I've got some new thoughts with this system in regards to the model trends over the last few runs, but I'll wait to see what the SPC says to see if they are thinking something similar to what I'm thinking.
 
#10,711
#10,711
Vol knight said:
Same here. I've got some new thoughts with this system in regards to the model trends over the last few runs, but I'll wait to see what the SPC says to see if they are thinking something similar to what I'm thinking.
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Same.

Looks like we miss out on the first wave.
 
#10,716
#10,716
Just as I thought, a Moderate Risk was going to be expanded to middle TN and the plateau. Also, the Enhanced risk has shifted west some to the point that areas east of Knox County have been downgraded to Slight. What I've been seeing in the past few model runs is a westward trend where the worst is setting up from the plateau and points west.

Having said that, I expect more changes to come in the outlooks, whether that be an increased risk for Severe thunderstorms or a decreased risk. Other than the first wave of rain, we need to see how much cloud cover do we see before the storms arrive. Cloud cover doesn't stabilize the air mass, but it can inhibit the growth of instability. More sun equals worse storms.
 
#10,717
#10,717
Vol knight said:
Just as I thought, a Moderate Risk was going to be expanded to middle TN and the plateau. Also, the Enhanced risk has shifted west some to the point that areas east of Knox County have been downgraded to Slight. What I've been seeing in the past few model runs is a westward trend where the worst is setting up from the plateau and points west.

Having said that, I expect more changes to come in the outlooks, whether that be an increased risk for Severe thunderstorms or a decreased risk. Other than the first wave of rain, we need to see how much cloud cover do we see before the storms arrive. Cloud cover doesn't stabilize the air mass, but it can inhibit the growth of instability. More sun equals worse storms.
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We miss out on the First Wave.
 
#10,719
#10,719
I'll say this ahead of time:

If you have a vehicle that you love and don't want to be damaged by hail up to baseball size (yes, we have a chance to see very large hail), I'd recommend keeping them in a garage or putting under a covered area.
 
#10,720
#10,720
Vol knight said:
I'll say this ahead of time:

If you have a vehicle that you love and don't want to be damaged by hail up to baseball size (yes, we have a chance to see very large hail), I'd recommend keeping them in a garage or putting under a covered area.
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What time and what area?
 
#10,722
#10,722
Here's the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from Morristown:

DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

...Outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the Eastern
Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian Region This Afternoon
and Evening...

A strong upper-level storm system will move into the region
on today. The associated cold front is expected to trigger
scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms during the afternoon
into the evening. Damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph
and hail up to the size of baseballs will be possible with these
storms.

A few tornadoes will also be possible with the strongest
storms. Additionally, a localized strong tornado cannot be ruled
out, particularly along the Cumberland Plateau and across
southeast Tennessee.
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#10,723
#10,723
From Morristown:

17807429_1440443015987066_3352866134533876148_o.jpg
 
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#10,724
#10,724
Vol knight said:
I'll say this ahead of time:

If you have a vehicle that you love and don't want to be damaged by hail up to baseball size (yes, we have a chance to see very large hail), I'd recommend keeping them in a garage or putting under a covered area.
Click to expand...

This is what I'm concerned about. Is there anything that shows the time all this is supposed to pop off?
 
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