Econ 101 for Presidential Candidates (and VN) - CATO

#76
#76
You are looking at it from the perspective of a small fraction of the population rather than the population as a whole. It's progress because everybody benefits while it only comes at a cost to a few.

For the most part, everybody enjoys a better standard of living today than they did 30 years ago. Most people have better jobs today. Some don't have better jobs than they used to, but nothing will ever prevent that from happening. We just gotta worry about doing what's best for everybody involved, not a few people who can't evolve with the economy.

You're right. I am taking too narrow a view of the situation. I'm admittedly still trying to wrap my head around the pros/cons of free trade versus free trade agreements versus protectionism. :hi:

At this point, I'm not convinced that protectionism is always bad or that free trade is always good. You seem inclined to argue for free trade, so I'll go the other way for now. I'm interested in your answers to these questions (and anyone else's answers as well).

In your opinion, is there anything we can do to protect jobs in this country that wouldn't make us poorer?

Do you think differences in legal wages between countries should be part of comparative advantage in international trade? The reason I ask is because usually a comparative advantage comes from doing something better, but in this case, the comparative advantage comes from paying employees worse for the same work. Protectionism offers a means of effectively separating wage differences between countries from comparative advantage in international trade, whereas free trade is not concerned with it at all.

Do you think we should have free trade with countries that allow slavery? Why or why not?
 
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#77
#77
You're right. I am taking too narrow a view of the situation. I'm admittedly still trying to wrap my head around the pros/cons of free trade versus free trade agreements versus protectionism. :hi:

At this point, I'm not convinced that protectionism is always bad or that free trade is always good. You seem inclined to argue for free trade, so I'll go the other way for now. I'm interested in your answers to these questions (and anyone else's answers as well).

In your opinion, is there anything we can do to protect jobs in this country that wouldn't make us poorer?

Do you think differences in legal wages between countries should be part of comparative advantage in international trade? The reason I ask is because usually a comparative advantage comes from doing something better, but in this case, the comparative advantage comes from paying employees worse for the same work. Protectionism offers a means of effectively separating wage differences between countries from comparative advantage in international trade, whereas free trade is not concerned with it at all.

Do you think we should have free trade with countries that allow slavery? Why or why not?

One variable and a big one that you should add. Ever since the clowns got together and decided to float currencies and turn currency into a commodity rather than a medium of exchange, there is no consistent valuation in how much anyone really owes or pays when dealing in international trade.

We have fixed equivalencies for different units of measure, but unit/dollar or unit/euro or unit/yen just depend on how investors feel like tweaking the markets one fine day. National debt may not matter in international trade to an economist, but currency speculators don't ignore it as a reason to revalue currency which does directly affect international trade.

There is also the matter of cartels and their artificial influence on supply and demand.
 
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#78
#78
You're right. I am taking too narrow a view of the situation. I'm admittedly still trying to wrap my head around the pros/cons of free trade versus free trade agreements versus protectionism. :hi:

At this point, I'm not convinced that protectionism is always bad or that free trade is always good. You seem inclined to argue for free trade, so I'll go the other way for now. I'm interested in your answers to these questions (and anyone else's answers as well).

I am only looking at it from the perspective of economic health. For national security reasons, it makes sense that we would have some operations here. We don't want to be entirely dependent on the rest of the world for certain resources.

In your opinion, is there anything we can do to protect jobs in this country that wouldn't make us poorer?

I think there are various measures we can take to ensure people are employed (without making us poorer), but no, protectionism implies you are protecting jobs that there is no longer a demand for. By the very definition, this means we experience lower total economic welfare.

Do you think differences in legal wages between countries should be part of comparative advantage in international trade? The reason I ask is because usually a comparative advantage comes from doing something better, but in this case, the comparative advantage comes from paying employees worse for the same work. Protectionism offers a means of effectively separating wage differences between countries from comparative advantage in international trade, whereas free trade is not concerned with it at all.

Comparative advantage comes from all sources, be they wage advantages, productivity advantages, technological advantages, geographic, etc. Sometimes a comparative advantage comes from trading partners being so good at so many things they can't even devote resources to this thing, so they get it from somewhere inferior.

I don't know what you mean by "separating wage concerns". Are you saying it's a problem that wage advantages exist? I don't think they are a problem.

Do you think we should have free trade with countries that allow slavery? Why or why not?

Do any countries allow slavery? IDK. I can go either way. I think it's possible that trading with us and keeping open communication can lead to the dissolution of said slavery.
 
#79
#79
I am only looking at it from the perspective of economic health. For national security reasons, it makes sense that we would have some operations here. We don't want to be entirely dependent on the rest of the world for certain resources.

I wasn't thinking about security, but I'm glad free trade is open to the idea that some things are worth trading some efficiency in the use of resources for.

I think there are various measures we can take to ensure people are employed (without making us poorer), but no, protectionism implies you are protecting jobs that there is no longer a demand for. By the very definition, this means we experience lower total economic welfare.

The demand for the goods is still here, though. It's the consequent demand for workers that free trade allows to move to a lower wage country. Do jobs have any special value in free trade? In other words is there anything in the theory that would value domestic jobs over cheaper goods in some situations, or is it assumed that it's always a fair trade? Does the number of jobs ever come into play in the evaluation?

I know we don't currently practice free trade, but I'm trying to imagine what it would look like for the US specifically, and I think it would likely entail an exodus of blue collar jobs (that don't have to physically be done here) to countries that pay about $2 an hour or less (like 5 out of the 11 other countries in the TPP). The trade-off would be lower prices for all. What guarantees that there is job growth in other areas of the economy to replace the jobs, or is it assumed that will happen?

Comparative advantage comes from all sources, be they wage advantages, productivity advantages, technological advantages, geographic, etc. Sometimes a comparative advantage comes from trading partners being so good at so many things they can't even devote resources to this thing, so they get it from somewhere inferior.

I don't know what you mean by "separating wage concerns". Are you saying it's a problem that wage advantages exist? I don't think they are a problem.

I'm saying that protectionism gives us a way to offset wage disadvantages in international trade, thus neutralizing any comparative advantage arising from them. Currently, I reject the idea that being allowed to pay employees less should be an advantage in international trade, just as I reject that being allowed to produce more sloppily from an environmental standpoint should be an advantage in international trade. These advantages arise simply from playing by different rules than us. Why not adjust the rules of international trade to compensate rather than assuming this is fair trade as is?

Do any countries allow slavery? IDK. I can go either way. I think it's possible that trading with us and keeping open communication can lead to the dissolution of said slavery.

There are no countries that allow people as property anymore, but there are countries with people considered to be in "modern slavery" (controlled and exploited) such as India, China, and Russia.

I was mainly asking to explore the bounds of free trade in the event that some country started up the slave trade again. IMO this should be a resounding "No!" for any country that values its workers. How can they compete with slaves? In this case, free trade turns one of humanity's worst inventions into a comparative advantage. Protectionism offers a means to disincentivize undesirable behaviors that result in a comparative advantage in international trade, but free trade seems prepared to say, "Better prices for all at cost to just a few, so it's progress".
 
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#80
#80
The demand for the goods is still here, though. It's the consequent demand for workers that free trade allows to move to a lower wage country. Do jobs have any special value in free trade? In other words is there anything in the theory that would value domestic jobs over cheaper goods in some situations, or is it assumed that it's always a fair trade? Does the number of jobs ever come into play in the evaluation?

Not sure exactly what you mean by this but I can pretty confidently answer no. The value is in the productivity not the labor...unless you think Marx was right.

I wasn't talking about demand for the goods they make, I was talking about demand for their labor.

I know we don't currently practice free trade, but I'm trying to imagine what it would look like for the US specifically, and I think it would likely entail an exodus of blue collar jobs (that don't have to physically be done here) to countries that pay about $2 an hour or less (like 5 out of the 11 other countries in the TPP). The trade-off would be lower prices for all. What guarantees that there is job growth in other areas of the economy to replace the jobs, or is it assumed that will happen?

What guarantee has there ever been that job growth in other areas of the economy will replace the jobs that become outdated? Even with protectionism, there is no guarantee. Again, we lose far more jobs to automation than we do other countries....like 5x as many. We keep experiencing job growth in other areas.

I'm saying that protectionism gives us a way to offset wage disadvantages in international trade, thus neutralizing any comparative advantage arising from them. Currently, I reject the idea that being allowed to pay employees less should be an advantage in international trade, just as I reject that being allowed to produce more sloppily from an environmental standpoint should be an advantage in international trade. These advantages arise simply from playing by different rules than us. Why not adjust the rules of international trade to compensate rather than assuming this is fair trade as is?

We don't want to neutralize their comparative advantage. It's to our benefit. We all gain from their low wages. That is the whole point of outsourcing.

Even if we did want to make things "fair" as you put it, I have no faith in the government's ability to execute on this. It would likely be a disaster and ripe for corruption.

There are no countries that allow people as property anymore, but there are countries with people considered to be in "modern slavery" (controlled and exploited) such as India, China, and Russia.

I was mainly asking to explore the bounds of free trade in the event that some country started up the slave trade again. IMO this should be a resounding "No!" for any country that values its workers. How can they compete with slaves? In this case, free trade turns one of humanity's worst inventions into a comparative advantage. Protectionism offers a means to disincentivize undesirable behaviors that result in a comparative advantage in international trade, but free trade seems prepared to say, "Better prices for all at cost to just a few, so it's progress".

I don't really think this is a concern at all. I don't think it should have any bearing on our current trade policy. Making rules for hypotheticals that don't exist is one of the reasons government is so bloated.

That being said, if we want to improve working standards in other countries, the absolute best way to do that is trade with them. We may find sweat shop labor standards distasteful, but there is no better alternative. We can try to use our influence to ask Nike to raise wages, but the second we force it on Nike is the second they move operations and then all those workers are starving instead of working in poor conditions.

It's the sad reality of the world. The good news is they only have to go through 1 or 2 generations of this if government gets out of the way, and then they can be like us and Hong Kong and Chile, etc.
 
#82
#82
Improving Mexico's working standards sure has helped keep the Mexicans from crossing the border.

Mexico ranks poorly on the economic freedom ranking index. We rank well. My examples of Hong Kong and Chile also rank well. That is why they still want to come here. Like I said, the government needs to get out of the way.

People who support protectionism are trying to hurt our economic freedom. I guess if we make ourselves poor then Mexicans won't want to move here. I'm sure some would prefer that outcome.
 
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#83
#83
Mexico ranks poorly on the economic freedom ranking index. We rank well. My examples of Hong Kong and Chile also rank well. That is why they still want to come here. Like I said, the government needs to get out of the way.

People who support protectionism are trying to hurt our economic freedom. I guess if we make ourselves poor then Mexicans won't want to move here. I'm sure some would prefer that outcome.

I prefer the outcome where Mexicans make Mexico better.
 
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#84
#84
Not sure exactly what you mean by this but I can pretty confidently answer no. The value is in the productivity not the labor...unless you think Marx was right.

No, but I'm concerned with American workers under free trade. The workers get cheaper goods (as does everyone here), but the trade-off is some will be displaced as they are put in direct competition with workers in lower wage countries. So, for the workers, there's a give and take in free trade. I can see how free trade benefits businesses even beyond the lower prices which they would also receive. If they're having a tough time due to our minimum wage laws, worker safety laws, and/or environmental regulations, they can move outside the jurisdiction and compete with the same companies for the same US customers. What isn't as clear to me is what the businesses are losing in order to gain these advantages (not saying there isn't anything).

The main thing I was trying to get from this part of the discussion is: do we have a way of quantifying the value of a job domestically (versus anywhere else in the world) so that we can include it in the evaluation when determining whether it benefits us to trade freely with another country? My concern is that we're not accounting for everything changing hands in the deal and therefore not keeping an accurate score, which means we may not even realize when/if we're getting the bad end of the deal.

I wasn't talking about demand for the goods they make, I was talking about demand for their labor.

I know. The fact you were talking about demand for labor is what made me be specific about the type of demand I was talking about.

What guarantee has there ever been that job growth in other areas of the economy will replace the jobs that become outdated? Even with protectionism, there is no guarantee.

You're right. Even under protectionism, there is no guarantee, but free trade dictates that we double down on something that is not guaranteed.

Again, we lose far more jobs to automation than we do other countries....like 5x as many. We keep experiencing job growth in other areas.

Another good point that I think cuts both ways. In addition to those jobs, I read a study stating that 47% of US jobs could be automated. So, we've already got a raging inferno at one end of the candle. I'm struggling not to see free trade as lighting the other end.

I can see how automation will create some jobs (most likely better jobs if you have the skills), but it will create less jobs than were lost by its very nature. We get more productivity out of those man-hours, so it's definitely progress, but now this industry has a deficit of jobs. We already count on job growth in other industries to balance this out, but if we trade freely with lower wage countries, we'll be counting on this job growth even more.

Maybe it would help for you to explain how free trade creates jobs. I can see that newly lowered costs could make some business models feasible that weren't feasible before which would encourage/facilitate innovation. What else?

We don't want to neutralize their comparative advantage. It's to our benefit. We all gain from their low wages. That is the whole point of outsourcing.

Even if we did want to make things "fair" as you put it, I have no faith in the government's ability to execute on this. It would likely be a disaster and ripe for corruption.

I agree that the government would likely mess it up both intentionally and unintentionally, but I'm more concerned with what we should be doing rather than what the government would turn it into if implemented.

From a wage standpoint, I can see the benefit that we receive in return for the costs (although I'm still skeptical of our ability to determine whether we come out ahead). From an environmental standpoint, I don't. We decide it's a bad thing to allow our manufacturing to pollute in certain ways, and go so far as to pass laws against it. Then, free trade comes along and allows it to be a comparative advantage if it's done somewhere else. Well, should we have these environmental regulations, or shouldn't we? If the acts prohibited by these laws are wrong, how is paying for someone else to perform them somewhere else different than doing them yourself here? In this case, free trade defeats the purpose of environmental protection laws while turning them into a disadvantage for domestic businesses. I'd feel better about free trade if it had a way to handle this situation.

I don't really think this is a concern at all. I don't think it should have any bearing on our current trade policy. Making rules for hypotheticals that don't exist is one of the reasons government is so bloated.

That being said, if we want to improve working standards in other countries, the absolute best way to do that is trade with them. We may find sweat shop labor standards distasteful, but there is no better alternative. We can try to use our influence to ask Nike to raise wages, but the second we force it on Nike is the second they move operations and then all those workers are starving instead of working in poor conditions.

It's the sad reality of the world. The good news is they only have to go through 1 or 2 generations of this if government gets out of the way, and then they can be like us and Hong Kong and Chile, etc.

I think the possibility of slavery abroad is an important consideration when looking at free trade because it's a situation in which no reasonable person could argue that the workers aren't being exploited. To me, it highlights that workers are seemingly an afterthought in the theory of free trade. It seems like by trading with slavers at all (and especially freely), we would be enabling them to continue and expand when we should be trying to put them out of business IMO. I understand that it's not a perfect solution because things would get much much worse for the slaves before it would hurt the masters, but it would likely prevent future generations of slaves.

The other reason I think it's important is because it shows that free trade would put our workers in direct competition with slaves if it comes to that, which explains why there are no qualms about anything in between. It appears that since we can't exploit workers here by paying them say $0.99/hr, we've figured out another way to exploit our workers by making them compete against those making $0.99/hr.

I've been digging through the dirt of free trade for a bit now, but maybe at this point you should show me how bad protectionism is. I understand that we would see higher prices domestically, potentially for inferior products. What else?
 
#85
#85
Mexico ranks poorly on the economic freedom ranking index. We rank well. My examples of Hong Kong and Chile also rank well. That is why they still want to come here. Like I said, the government needs to get out of the way.

People who support protectionism are trying to hurt our economic freedom. I guess if we make ourselves poor then Mexicans won't want to move here. I'm sure some would prefer that outcome.

Border control itself is a form of protectionism
 
#86
#86
Border control itself is a form of protectionism

It is and I've already conceded that sometimes you trade off wealth for security, like in the example of avoiding total reliance on other countries for important resources.
 
#87
#87
No, but I'm concerned with American workers under free trade. The workers get cheaper goods (as does everyone here), but the trade-off is some will be displaced as they are put in direct competition with workers in lower wage countries. So, for the workers, there's a give and take in free trade. I can see how free trade benefits businesses even beyond the lower prices which they would also receive. If they're having a tough time due to our minimum wage laws, worker safety laws, and/or environmental regulations, they can move outside the jurisdiction and compete with the same companies for the same US customers. What isn't as clear to me is what the businesses are losing in order to gain these advantages (not saying there isn't anything).

The main thing I was trying to get from this part of the discussion is: do we have a way of quantifying the value of a job domestically (versus anywhere else in the world) so that we can include it in the evaluation when determining whether it benefits us to trade freely with another country? My concern is that we're not accounting for everything changing hands in the deal and therefore not keeping an accurate score, which means we may not even realize when/if we're getting the bad end of the deal.

I'll avoid all the charts and models and just tell you that almost 90% of trade economists agree that the financial benefit to our country outweighs the cost. The other 10% is undecided. It's as close to consensus as you can get. Believe me, if there were a strong case to make for protectionism, lots of economists would be making it because it's politically popular.

You're right. Even under protectionism, there is no guarantee, but free trade dictates that we double down on something that is not guaranteed.

How is laissez faire behavior a double down? Not sure I get what you are saying.

Another good point that I think cuts both ways. In addition to those jobs, I read a study stating that 47% of US jobs could be automated. So, we've already got a raging inferno at one end of the candle. I'm struggling not to see free trade as lighting the other end.

These have always been problems as long as there has been money and jobs. There will always be jobs that go away and there will always be new jobs that come about. In a general sense, we are no different than past generations.

I can see how automation will create some jobs (most likely better jobs if you have the skills), but it will create less jobs than were lost by its very nature. We get more productivity out of those man-hours, so it's definitely progress, but now this industry has a deficit of jobs. We already count on job growth in other industries to balance this out, but if we trade freely with lower wage countries, we'll be counting on this job growth even more.

Maybe it would help for you to explain how free trade creates jobs. I can see that newly lowered costs could make some business models feasible that weren't feasible before which would encourage/facilitate innovation. What else?

Well, half of our imports are input goods for manufacturing here. Like the Dell plant in Nashville (is it still there?). They don't make computers from scratch. If we couldn't get the input goods (again, half of our imports) cheaply from elsewhere, a lot of those jobs here would never exist.

I agree that the government would likely mess it up both intentionally and unintentionally, but I'm more concerned with what we should be doing rather than what the government would turn it into if implemented.

Why? Results matter. Not intentions. Right?

From a wage standpoint, I can see the benefit that we receive in return for the costs (although I'm still skeptical of our ability to determine whether we come out ahead). From an environmental standpoint, I don't. We decide it's a bad thing to allow our manufacturing to pollute in certain ways, and go so far as to pass laws against it. Then, free trade comes along and allows it to be a comparative advantage if it's done somewhere else. Well, should we have these environmental regulations, or shouldn't we? If the acts prohibited by these laws are wrong, how is paying for someone else to perform them somewhere else different than doing them yourself here? In this case, free trade defeats the purpose of environmental protection laws while turning them into a disadvantage for domestic businesses. I'd feel better about free trade if it had a way to handle this situation.

I totally agree with this sentiment. It's something that drives me crazy about environmentalists (I consider myself a "conservationist"). That being said, a lot of environmental standards don't achieve anything. Just like you are concerned about what the actual $ amount gained is from free trade, we know even less about how regulation improves the environment. In addition, we were allowed our time to go through an industrial revolution. We treated our environment like crap, but then we got rich and now we take care of it. Who am I to tell another country they can't do what we did?

In practical terms, regulation rarely achieves its objectives. We are likely to do more harm than good by pushing these standards on others. They will still break the rules and neither party will get the benefit of our trading partnership.
 
#88
#88
It is and I've already conceded that sometimes you trade off wealth for security, like in the example of avoiding total reliance on other countries for important resources.

I'd rather have the wealth. Not convinced that border controll makes us that much safer
 
#89
#89
LMAO, protectionism completely destroyed:

...blockading squadrons are a means whereby nations seek to prevent their enemies from trading; protective tariffs are a means whereby nations attempt to prevent their own people from trading. What protection teaches us is to do to ourselves in time of peace what enemies seek to do to us in time of war. - Henry George
 
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#90
#90
LMAO, protectionism completely destroyed:

Globalism completely destroyed...

In times of war foreign countries seek to destroy a nations ability to be self supportive, through outright denial or destruction of physical assets. Globalism does this in peace thru trade.

LouderVol 2016

got any other narrow views of an idealistic world I can fix for you?

Globalism = dependency
Being able to support oneself nationally = independence = 'Murika
 
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#91
#91
Globalism completely destroyed...

got any other narrow views of an idealistic world I can fix for you?

Globalism = dependency
Being able to support oneself nationally = independence = 'Murika

Wtf? How is trade the same thing as destroying property/resources?

Restricting trade is comparable to restricting trade, which is why my analogy works.

Go back to the drawing board. If we need to make certain things here for security, ok. But most manufacturing has nothing to do with security.
 
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#92
#92
Globalism completely destroyed...



got any other narrow views of an idealistic world I can fix for you?

Globalism = dependency
Being able to support oneself nationally = independence = 'Murika

Huh? What is idealistic about free trade?
 
#93
#93
Wtf? How is trade the same thing as destroying property/resources?

Restricting trade is comparable to restricting trade, which is why my analogy works.

Go back to the drawing board. If we need to make certain things here for security, ok. But most manufacturing has nothing to do with security.

Different aspects of national security in play here.

Economic security, property (borders), even ideological and what systems of jurisprudence. Sovreignty.

To your point on economic security. It is an absolute fact that loss of manufacturing and the corporate and blue collar jobs in the USA has deeply affected millions of families and whole regions of America's economic security.
Our nation, consequently, has lost billions in taxes. And in a very real way that does affect national security.
 
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#94
#94
For the record:

Most of you arguing against free trade have called either Ron or Rand Paul an isolationist at some point.

Perhaps you should research that term.
 
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#95
#95
When a pound of steel gets imported into this country tariff free and the cost to produce the metal was subsidized by the exporting country, is that free trade? What about when a country makes a vehicle and ships it across the border tariff free?

We always seem to be on the losing end of these deals. We're raising the standard of living in other countries and lowering ours. Electing Trump was a sign to stop the madness and for some reason people don't get it.
 
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#96
#96
When a pound of steel gets imported into this country tariff free and the cost to produce the metal was subsidized by the exporting country, is that free trade? What about when a country makes a vehicle and ships it across the border tariff free?

We always seem to be on the losing end of these deals. We're raising the standard of living in other countries and lowering ours. Electing Trump was a sign to stop the madness and for some reason people don't get it.

Losing? Cheap cars and steal sounds like a huge win. I would like to personally thank those countries for their donations. You believe their government subsidizing steal raises their standard of living?

You must love welfare then!
 
#97
#97
"The ability to buy goods at a cheaper price lowers our standard of living"-volstrom

??????? Wtf

Not certain you understand what standard of living means
 
#98
#98
Different aspects of national security in play here.

Economic security, property (borders), even ideological and what systems of jurisprudence. Sovreignty.

To your point on economic security. It is an absolute fact that loss of manufacturing and the corporate and blue collar jobs in the USA has deeply affected millions of families and whole regions of America's economic security.
Our nation, consequently, has lost billions in taxes. And in a very real way that does affect national security.

Link?

87%+ of the families affected by manufacturing job losses would still suffer if we were completely isolationist, because only a small fraction of the jobs are actually lost to outsourcing...and ECONOMISTS FACTOR THIS COST/BURDEN IN THEIR ANALYSIS OF FREE TRADE. You don't need to tell me about it. I know. The point is that there is still way more gained than lost.
 
#99
#99
When a pound of steel gets imported into this country tariff free and the cost to produce the metal was subsidized by the exporting country, is that free trade? What about when a country makes a vehicle and ships it across the border tariff free?

We always seem to be on the losing end of these deals. We're raising the standard of living in other countries and lowering ours. Electing Trump was a sign to stop the madness and for some reason people don't get it.

We benefit even more if China subsidizes. Let them be idiots and we get cheaper ****. The only way to negotiate a better deal is with a gun to their head.

Is there really no tariff at all on steel or are you shooting from the hip?
 
We benefit even more if China subsidizes. Let them be idiots and we get cheaper ****. The only way to negotiate a better deal is with a gun to their head.

Is there really no tariff at all on steel or are you shooting from the hip?

According to his strange views on this, taxes create jobs.

If we could only raise taxes enough to afford to subsidize everything we export, we would improve our standard of living and create a ton of jobs!

Or at least, that's how he believes it works.
 

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