February 5th, 2014

[TNV]

They can recruit 10 *****'s or ****'s ALL DAY LONG...........BUT, if they cannto coach them up, scheme well, gameplan well and make adjustments, it does not matter what kind of talent you have. you will be a 6-6 or 7-5 team every year. You can win some games on shear talent alone ie..kentucky Western Kentucky etc.... but those games where you loose them based on how well you scout, practice and adjust that seperates the top 10 program and a BCS champion, well and a little luck

Troll much??:good!:

 

[EZE]

Which is exactly what I am saying, except I am telling you mathematically it is roughly 70/30 talent to coaching.

Take a roster that is the best in the land, and add an average/competant coach and you end up with Bama. Take a step down from that talent wise, and you end up with UGA, take a step down from that talent wise and you end up with aTm. Regardless of legend, aTm has done nothing exceptional that wasn't predicted by talent. You could argue that they beat Bama but Saban typically trends a late season loss to teams running a spread/read option. If Saban is so good, why do those teams wreck his perfect seasons?

Take a roster that is mediocre, add a "great" coach that can scheme, and you end up with Arkansas (Petrino), Franklin (Vanderbilt), Mizzou (Pinkel), Duke (Cutcliffe). I would argue that you should throw Jones at CMU and Cincy into that mix. Jones not only increased recruiting averages over those stops as a general rule (this kicks the "he wins with 'Kelly's kids'" argument right in the balls, as he actually recruits better than Kelly) but he also has averages over his entire coaching career an over-performance of 3.5 games a season (what Franklin has done for the past 2 years, Jones has averaged for 7).

Those kind of coaches are the exception. Too often people extrapolate from the exception to form a rule (that is why many people make the argument that coaching matters as much as, if not more than talent. They see guys like these, (or their mirrored opposite like Dooley/Kiff/Brown) without understanding that there are roughly 90 other teams who are performing exactly as talent predicts.

And the most dumbfounding argument possibly ever used on any message board, or on any radio talk show, or anywhere in the known universe is that the SEC is somehow "different," and requires a specific type of coach. No, the SEC is great because of talent, the key is to find coaches who can not only utilize talent but continue to improve on incoming talent. There is no "magic" system in the SEC that is invisible to other conferences, in fact the SEC is transitioning from defense to more offensive heavy schemes. Why? An influx of coaches who show that those schemes (spread/read option) work. If the SEC is magical, those schemes wouldn't work. My hypothesis on Jones is very simple: If he can win games in any conference, beginning with bottom tier conference talent, he can win in any conference when he gets better talent than his competition. That is probably a pretty good rule of thumb.

Spot on analysis IMO. You are one of the very few on here who try to apply facts to the argument. The rest just see a loss to a Top-5 team and knee jerk with "it is the coaching and schemes...."

 

[daj2576]

I don't know if it's a pattern, or not. They've lost 3 games in the last 3 seasons. In 2011, they lost 9-6 in OT to LSU.

Granted the loss to aTm and Auburn were similar and aTm put up a ton of points and yards on them this year.

I also wouldn't classify Saban as "competent." I think he's a bit better than that. Richt and Miles are competent.

I will say that both Richt and Miles have a benefit that Saban doesn't. They play teams who out-recruit them. What that means is that they have an ability to over-perform, where Saban doesn't. Both Richt and Miles have a very real history of ending the season right at where talent predicted insofar as seasonal predictions, but get there sometimes by having losses to as many as two teams they should have beaten, but then beating as many as two teams they should have lost to.

Where we differ is in our historical perspective of Saban. Saban's problem now is that while he doesn't have the ability to over-perform (he can only be judged on negative performances vs talent--as he is out-recruiting everyone else). This means that an argument can be made that my evaluation is skewed to the negative. While that is true, his history is very clear. When he did not have the best talent, he did not have a history of exceptional over-performance.

Yes, his first year at Bama he beat Fulmer (who had a declining ability to perform to his recruited talent and a declining recruiting ability) but he offset that with a mind-boggling loss to La-Monroe. In other words, before his teams became the most talented (due to his recruiting), he was a coach who tended to perform about as talent predicted. In fact, for his first year at Bama specifically, he under-performed compared to Vegas expectations. His strength, as I have long said, is his ability to recruit at an awe-inspiring level.

I believe firmly that Saban is a competent coach but a stellar recruiter. Saban "gets it" and with "it" some rings. "It" is obviously talent plugged into a sound system. I think Jones gets both halves of the equation: he recruits very well, and has a long history of over-performance. Jones' over-performance does come with some losses that are head-scratchers, to be sure, but the long view of his ability is a substantial average over-performance while increasing talent.

Honestly, if the Saban to Texas rumors are true, Texas is about to wildly over-pay for a coach. Texas doesn't need the benefit of recruiting, as they have a massive recruiting advantage already. Texas just needs a coach that doesn't hinder talent. In this regard, Texas over the past few years, and Auburn up to last year, are in relatively similar positions. The talent is there (generally speaking), the coaching isn't. Gathering the talent is the hard part, and can take a couple recruiting cycles...the wins once the talent is there can come rather quickly (ask Malzahn).

 

[Vol8188]

I disagree with the above post, simply because no one in the SEC should ever have more talent than Richt. That dude sucks. I hope they give him a lifetime contract. I'd make donations to their university to pay his salary.

 

[Catbone]

Rich is the definition of an under achiever. He's always on the brink of something great then fails.

 

[daj2576]

Rich is the definition of an under achiever. He's always on the brink of something great then fails.

He performs exactly to talent along seasonal arcs. Nothing more, nothing less.

He should have more talent, but isn't a great recruiter (it shouldn't be hard to recruit to UGA). As he doesn't over-perform, he will need to try harder at recruiting, or just retire.

 

[phowell23]

Is possibly, the most important day for this program since the 1998 NC Game

This class is so very important to the rebuilding of this once proud program. We can't bust on this class.

Jones needs to finish this class strong and keep it in the Top 5 nationally if we hope to dig ourselves out of this hole

Of all the issues I have with this staff, recruiting isn't one. This is so far, their bread and butter

Get...it...done

About half the class will be on campus next month.

 

[VOLnMiami]

And in reality, this recruiting class is more important to the future success of this program than anything else at this point. IMO.

And its only the beginning...Another 2 classes or so and we should be back in the hunt and gotten rid of the dead weight.

 

[VolsnRavens]

Is UT having a recruiting party on 2/5/14?

Yes, It's at Pearls house. Leave your cameras at home please.