'19 FL DE Khris Bogle (UF signee)

#2,626
#2,626
85SugarVol said:
I think it’s more accurate to say that you can pull “great” players from all Star levels, but statistically you are more likely to find success fishing for 4&5’s.

For every JJ Watt, there are 7,000 more 2Stars that never did anything remarkable.
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I think my confidence points analogy is pretty accurate. The higher the rating the more confidence they have that the player will be good. We really splitting semantic hairs here though.
 
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#2,627
#2,627
Sleegro said:
So 3 stars aren't necessarily worse than 4 and 5 stars, it's just that the recruiting sites don't have as much confidence in the projections of their success. So it's definitely encouraging to land the higher rated guys but it doesn't mean we should chief on every 3 star just because the sites assigned less confidence points to them. Especially if the current coaching staff has a track record of being good at player evaluations. Just thinking out loud. I'd rather get higher rated guys too but I don't get mad when we sign lower rated guys.
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If your first sentence has any validity whatsoever, then why arent the teams that are consistently in the NC hunt, fielding a starting lineup of mostly 3*s? Lets take a look at Mike Leach. Now many have said on here that Leach is a genius and a really good coach. Mow he usually does ok during the regular season and then when he faces Washington or other teams with more highly ranked players, he loses. Why? Its because the true blue chip players matter.

Yes there are always going to be guys like Mack and Brown who were criminally underrated, who turn out to be absolute studs. But statistically, they are rare. The fact is the more lower rqnked guys you have, the less likely you are to be a championship level program.
 
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#2,629
#2,629
BigOrangeTrain said:
If your first sentence has any validity whatsoever, then why arent the teams that are consistently in the NC hunt, fielding a starting lineup of mostly 3*s? Lets take a look at Mike Leach. Now many have said on here that Leach is a genius and a really good coach. Mow he usually does ok during the regular season and then when he faces Washington or other teams with more highly ranked players, he loses. Why? Its because the true blue chip players matter.

Yes there are always going to be guys like Mack and Brown who were criminally underrated, who turn out to be absolute studs. But statistically, they are rare. The fact is the more lower rqnked guys you have, the less likely you are to be a championship level program.
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Think you missed the point I was making. The majority of players deemed successful by the metric that was being discussed are 3 stars just because of the sheer number of them. They are just harder to predict for a number of reasons so they get the lower rating, or confidence level of success. Doesn't mean we shouldn't go after the higher rated guys that evaluators are more confident in projecting success. Just that we shouldn't get upset every time a 3 star gets an offer or signs. Because the majority of successful players are 3 stars. And I think when you have a staff that are proven evaluators that is even more true. It's not like we've taken mostly lower rated guys this year anyway. I think the staff seems to be very selective in who they're taking right now.
 
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#2,630
#2,630
A players rating isn't everything. For every Tim Tebow, AJ Green, Reuben Foster, Derek Barnett, Alvin Kamara, De'Anthony Thomas, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Eric Berry there's a Jeff Luc, Kyle Prater, Shy Tuttle, Lache Seastrunk, Gunner Kiel, Markeith Ambles, or Kyle Phillips. Just like for every Sam Bradford, John Kelly, JJ Watt, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Josh Dobbs, Vic Beasley, Kenjon Barner, Dion Lewis, or Pat White there's a Devrin Young, Nash Nance, Allan Carson, Greg Clark, Channing Fuagte, Matt Simms, or Rod Wilks. They're not a guarantee of success, but they're usually a good indicator of how talented a player is. Sure there may be times when 4-5 stars don't pan out and there's times where 0-3 star players end up being great players, but it's not coincidence that the top 10 programs in the country usually finish high in recruiting every year and the top 5-6 teams usually finish in the top 10 every season. You've gotta have elite athletes to be successful, especially in the SEC. You might can have a decent season or two without finishing in the top 10 year after year, but to be competitive in the SEC for the long haul you have to recruit at a high level
 
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#2,631
#2,631
codyg10 said:
A players rating isn't everything. For every Tim Tebow, AJ Green, Reuben Foster, Derek Barnett, Alvin Kamara, De'Anthony Thomas, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Eric Berry there's a Jeff Luc, Kyle Prater, Shy Tuttle, Lache Seastrunk, Gunner Kiel, Markeith Ambles, or Kyle Phillips. Just like for every Sam Bradford, John Kelly, JJ Watt, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Josh Dobbs, Vic Beasley, Kenjon Barner, Dion Lewis, or Pat White there's a Devrin Young, Nash Nance, Allan Carson, Greg Clark, Channing Fuagte, Matt Simms, or Rod Wilks. They're not a guarantee of success, but they're usually a good indicator of how talented a player is. Sure there may be times when 4-5 stars don't pan out and there's times where 0-3 star players end up being great players, but it's not coincidence that the top 10 programs in the country usually finish high in recruiting every year and the top 5-6 teams usually finish in the top 10 every season. You've gotta have elite athletes to be successful, especially in the SEC. You might can have a decent season or two without finishing in the top 10 year after year, but to be competitive in the SEC for the long haul you have to recruit at a high level
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Do you mind giving some examples?
 
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#2,632
#2,632
codyg10 said:
A players rating isn't everything. For every Tim Tebow, AJ Green, Reuben Foster, Derek Barnett, Alvin Kamara, De'Anthony Thomas, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Eric Berry there's a Jeff Luc, Kyle Prater, Shy Tuttle, Lache Seastrunk, Gunner Kiel, Markeith Ambles, or Kyle Phillips. Just like for every Sam Bradford, John Kelly, JJ Watt, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Josh Dobbs, Vic Beasley, Kenjon Barner, Dion Lewis, or Pat White there's a Devrin Young, Nash Nance, Allan Carson, Greg Clark, Channing Fuagte, Matt Simms, or Rod Wilks. They're not a guarantee of success, but they're usually a good indicator of how talented a player is. Sure there may be times when 4-5 stars don't pan out and there's times where 0-3 star players end up being great players, but it's not coincidence that the top 10 programs in the country usually finish high in recruiting every year and the top 5-6 teams usually finish in the top 10 every season. You've gotta have elite athletes to be successful, especially in the SEC. You might can have a decent season or two without finishing in the top 10 year after year, but to be competitive in the SEC for the long haul you have to recruit at a high level
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Tuttle was a victim of injuries. Don't really see how he fits into your example. He was a beast before getting chopped blocked by that punk Kublanow from Georgia.
 
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#2,636
#2,636
Watch how often these recruiting sites "discover" these talents immediately following attention given by proven coaches. And I'm talking well before official offers.
.
Those are the true evaluaters of talent.
The sites follow the lead of the greats (and mix in the pay for camp, kids with a little bump.)
Not much more to it and don't blame 'em either. Surest way to look good at their jobs.

Saban isn't getting all the 4/5 star players he wants. He turning all the players he wants into 4/5 stars.
 
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#2,637
#2,637
chargervol said:
Watch how often these recruiting sites "discover" these talents immediately following attention given by proven coaches. And I'm talking well before official offers.
.
Those are the true evaluaters of talent.
The sites follow the lead of the greats (and mix in the pay for camp, kids with a little bump.)
Not much more to it and don't blame 'em either. Surest way to look good at their jobs.

Saban isn't getting all the 4/5 star players he wants. He turning all the players he wants into 4/5 stars.
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This is a very good point.
 
#2,638
#2,638
Sleegro said:
This is a very good point.
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I was serious about not blaming them too.
If I had to watch enough film on thousands of kids to make a true evaluation, or let the guys who are paid huge bucks, give me the general direction , I know which way I'd do it.
Heck, finding out what kind of "waters we are fishing in" is one of the first things we do. But the biggest coaches can't see them all either, that's why there's surprises.
 
#2,639
#2,639
chargervol said:
I was serious about not blaming them too.
If I had to watch enough film on thousands of kids to make a true evaluation, or let the guys who are paid huge bucks, give me the general direction , I know which way I'd do it.
Heck, finding out what kind of "waters we are fishing in" is one of the first things we do. But the biggest coaches can't see them all either, that's why there's surprises.
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No I totally agree and don't blame them either.
 
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#2,641
#2,641
chargervol said:
Watch how often these recruiting sites "discover" these talents immediately following attention given by proven coaches. And I'm talking well before official offers.
.
Those are the true evaluaters of talent.
The sites follow the lead of the greats (and mix in the pay for camp, kids with a little bump.)
Not much more to it and don't blame 'em either. Surest way to look good at their jobs.

Saban isn't getting all the 4/5 star players he wants. He turning all the players he wants into 4/5 stars.
Click to expand...
No doubt that some of that happens. Especially with guys who have flown under the wire and not camped.

Think Jordan Young last year. He’s unranked and Tennessee finds him down in Georgia. Rivals evaluates him, and he’s a 4Star in the final update.

For the most part though, the Top50 - Top100 players are pretty much known by the end of their Sophomore years.
 
#2,643
#2,643
85SugarVol said:
No doubt that some of that happens. Especially with guys who have flown under the wire and not camped.

Think Jordan Young last year. He’s unranked and Tennessee finds him down in Georgia. Rivals evaluates him, and he’s a 4Star in the final update.

For the most part though, the Top50 - Top100 players are pretty much known by the end of their Sophomore years.
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I think most programs have started building relationships by then also.

I'd also give a nod to hs head coaches known to have a good eye. I'd say they're responsible for giving everyone else the first heads up.
 
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#2,646
#2,646
College staffs are absolutely cultivating relationships with HS players very early on.

Doubtful that college coaches are “giving everyone else the first heads up” on who to evaluate and rank.
 
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#2,647
#2,647
85SugarVol said:
College staffs are absolutely cultivating relationships with HS players very early on.

Doubtful that college coaches are “giving everyone else the first heads up” on who to evaluate and rank.
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Don't understand.
What about your comment on college coaches, makes my comment about HS coaches, wrong?
See hs coaches do it in interviews every week.
 
#2,648
#2,648
chargervol said:
Don't understand.
What about your comment on college coaches, makes my comment about HS coaches, wrong?
See hs coaches do it in interviews every week.
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My bad. Misread. See now that you were saying HS coaches are giving heads up.

Don’t doubt that might be true for some players.
 
#2,649
#2,649
chargervol said:
Watch how often these recruiting sites "discover" these talents immediately following attention given by proven coaches. And I'm talking well before official offers.
.
Those are the true evaluaters of talent.
The sites follow the lead of the greats (and mix in the pay for camp, kids with a little bump.)
Not much more to it and don't blame 'em either. Surest way to look good at their jobs.

Saban isn't getting all the 4/5 star players he wants. He turning all the players he wants into 4/5 stars.
Click to expand...

Since from 2009-2018, Sabans recruiting classes

09- 27 commits- 8 3*s
10- 25- 9 3*s
11- 25- 6 3*s
12- 26- 8 3*s
13- 26- 8 3*s
14- 26- 4 3*s
15- 24- 4 3*s
16- 25- 8 3*s
17- 29- 4 3*s
18- 22- 7 3*s

So in 10 recruiting classes Saban has recruited 255 players. 66 of those have been 3* players. Thats 26% of his rosters being 3* players. So lets not sit back and pretend like Saban is turning a bunch of low level recruits with bad offer lists into blue chip studs. He is recruiting the blue chip studs and improving on their already high level skill sets.
 
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#2,650
#2,650
BigOrangeTrain said:
Since from 2009-2018, Sabans recruiting classes

09- 27 commits- 8 3*s
10- 25- 9 3*s
11- 25- 6 3*s
12- 26- 8 3*s
13- 26- 8 3*s
14- 26- 4 3*s
15- 24- 4 3*s
16- 25- 8 3*s
17- 29- 4 3*s
18- 22- 7 3*s

So in 10 recruiting classes Saban has recruited 255 players. 66 of those have been 3* players. Thats 26% of his rosters being 3* players. So lets not sit back and pretend like Saban is turning a bunch of low level recruits with bad offer lists into blue chip studs. He is recruiting the blue chip studs and improving on their already high level skill sets.
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Well according to UGA, their mock 2020 includes only 1 3* in Cooper Mays. Man, just imagine if Saban were that good... ever!
 
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