Florida vs Georgia

[VFL-82-JP]

Not realistically. A win against GA seals it for us, even if we lose another game and they win everything else. There is no way GA loses to Florida, us, and another game, which is what would have to happen for a loss to FL to matter. I understand the math of them losing to FL, but in the big scheme of things, it does not help us unless we beat them, in which case it still doesn't matter unless we beat them but lose to KY and SC.

6.5%. That's a realistic number. It's not a big number. It's not a number you bet your pink slip on. But it's a realistic number. Weirder things happen every day.

And you keep misunderstanding: It's not "GA loses to Florida, us, and another game" that makes a FL win matter. It's if WE lose to UGa that UGa's losses to FL and one other matter.

6.5%. That's enough. Gators over Dawgs, please.

 

[Shaun1985]

Even if Georgia wins, they control their own destiny if they beat us. I don't care. 15 OTs, a backup QB or 2 and I want to see Kirby cry.

 

[Cutty-CobbWebb]

I have 3 favorite teams. Tennessee, whoever plays Bama, whoever plays Florida. If Bama & Florida play each other, I hope they both lose.

 

[BanditVol]

I want ole Stetson to stay healthy

 

[Volfan1000]

I think Florida will be a handful for Georgia in this game especially if Richardson has a career type day.

 

[Volmac2022]

That's the way to stay focused for UK!

Kentucky is the equivalent of a high school team

 

[Volmac2022]

What about Mizzou? They keeping you up at night too?

Nah middle school teams don't bother me

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I want ole Stetson to stay healthy

I don't care if he does or not. A win is a win.

 

[HighWaterVol]

The best scenario for TN is GA beats FL (and they will).

That's because if GA loses to FL and beats TN, TN will a.) lose the SEC East and b.) have 0% chance at a playoff spot because they lost to GA.

However, whatever happens this year has been the most fun I've had watching the Vols in 15 years.

Wrong.

If Georgia beats us, the only way we win East and make it to Atlanta is if Georgia loses 2 in SEC and Georgia is our only loss.

Our best chance of getting into the CFP is to win the East.

There is a marginal chance we get in CFP if Georgia wins out, our only loss is to Georgia, and the cards fall right with OSU/Michigan/Clemson/TCU.

 

[Arrested Devolopment]

Wrong.

If Georgia beats us, the only way we win East and make it to Atlanta is if Georgia loses 2 in SEC and Georgia is our only loss.

Our best chance of getting into the CFP is to win the East.

There is a marginal chance we get in CFP if Georgia wins out, our only loss is to Georgia, and the cards fall right with OSU/Michigan/Clemson/TCU.

It's hard to say who is the most accurate in this "angels on the head of a pin" prediction. If, as you say, GA screws up badly and FL wins, then I suppose anything is possible and GA could also lose to mid-level KY or MSt, while managing to defeat elite TN. I gave that scenario a 0% chance of happening and went with the marginal chance of Clemson or TCU stumbling and a 1 loss TN and a 1 loss GA getting into the CFP.

But it's college football, so anything can happen.

 

[mpfvol]

I want UF to win a close one as bad as I hate to say that UGA is worse than UF win they win.

 

[HoopCreekVol]

Regardless of the FLA/GA outcome, I always want GA to lose. Of course, that may be because I have to put up with their fans.

Same here...

 

[BanditVol]

I don't care if he does or not. A win is a win.

I'm saying I like our chances better with him healthy

 

[GroverCleveland]

Too many folks here prefer the path where we DON'T go to Atlanta but do get into the playoffs.

How weird.

When we say we're playing for championships, plural, championshipS, we mean: SEC and National.

You can't win the SEC title sitting at home.

You can't win championshipS waiting for UGa to win in Atlanta so we can be the little sister also invited to the CFP ball.

Come on, gang, we WANT to win the SEC. We WANT to get to Atlanta. Once we're in Atlanta, we have FULL control over getting into the playoffs.

Ditch the loser mentality where you think up ways for us to be let in the CFP without even vying for the SEC title.

Go Vols!

I thought different scenarios were being discussed. Not just XV-nulla.

 

[GroverCleveland]

Yes. It does. On the chance we don't beat UGa ourselves, it DOES help us get to Atlanta. Already explained.

No it does not.

**corrected**
If uga loses to FU and beats UT, it will take a loss to either Kentucky and/or Miss St, either of which lowers their profile and, hence the Vols as the Vols would have lost to a two loss-non division champion. Only way to CFP is winning SECCG. Period.

UT is not playing for NY6. Playing for the Big One. Either win out, or have a record of 11-1 with only loss to the undefeated SECC and get another chance.

Playing for bigger stakes got to forget petty emotion.

 

[VFL 89]

Easy math. A gator victory makes our road to SEC championship a bit easier. But I doubt that will happen.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

No it does not.

If uga loses to FU and beats UT, it will take a loss to the Vols AND a loss to either Kentucky and/or Miss St, either of which lowers their profile and, hence the Vols as the Vols would have lost to a two loss-non division champion. Only way to CFP is winning SECCG. Period.

UT is not playing for NY6. Playing for the Big One. Either win out, or have a record of 11-1 with only loss to the undefeated SECC and get another chance.

Playing for bigger stakes got to forget petty emotion.

Nope.

First, that bolded sentence makes no sense. You're saying that if the Dawgs beat the Vols, it would take a loss to the Vols and another team. We don't play them twice. How do they beat us and lose to us both?

But set that aside. There are bigger things at play.

We all want to beat UGa a week from now (after beating Kentucky). And that's the most direct path to Atlanta and the CFP. But set that aside, too, because we're talking about how to get to championships even if we don't win that game.

Florida beats UGa this weekend. Then UGa beats the Vols next weekend. Those are the presumptions -- those are the basis on which this whole conversation has run. Just as you said, above.

So here's how it can go after that to get us to Atlanta:

At this point, the Vols are 8-1 (4-1 SEC). The Dawgs are 8-1 (5-1 SEC). Tie-breaker to UGa because they won head-to-head.

Now the Vols win out, beating Mizzou, USCe, and Vandy. End the regular season 11-1 (7-1 SEC). UGa just needs to lose one game, either to Kentucky or Mississippi State, to drop to 10-2 (6-2 SEC).

At that point, the Vols represent the East in Atlanta, and the Dawgs stay home. 7-1 beats 6-2.

The chance of UGa losing to either the Bulldogs or the Wildcats? 6.5%. It could happen. Not likely, but possible.

And that is the ONLY way for us to get to Atlanta, should we lose to UGa a week from Saturday.

~ ~ ~

Folks talking about how good it would be, should we lose to UGa, for them to otherwise be undefeated so we "look better" to the CFP committee. Pfffft. Here's how we look better to those folks: go to Atlanta. Win in Atlanta. Be the SEC Champ. Not sitting at home hoping they like us.

Go Vols!

 

[GroverCleveland]

Nope.

First, that bolded sentence makes no sense. You're saying that if the Dawgs beat the Vols, it would take a loss to the Vols and another team. We don't play them twice. How do they beat us and lose to us both?

But set that aside. There are bigger things at play.

We all want to beat UGa a week from now (after beating Kentucky). And that's the most direct path to Atlanta and the CFP. But set that aside, too, because we're talking about how to get to championships even if we don't win that game.

Florida beats UGa this weekend. Then UGa beats the Vols next weekend. Those are the presumptions -- those are the basis on which this whole conversation has run. Just as you said, above.

So here's how it can go after that to get us to Atlanta:

At this point, the Vols are 8-1 (4-1 SEC). The Dawgs are 8-1 (5-1 SEC). Tie-breaker to UGa because they won head-to-head.

Now the Vols win out, beating Mizzou, USCe, and Vandy. End the regular season 11-1 (7-1 SEC). UGa just needs to lose one game, either to Kentucky or Mississippi State, to drop to 10-2 (6-2 SEC).

At that point, the Vols represent the East in Atlanta, and the Dawgs stay home. 7-1 beats 6-2.

The chance of UGa losing to either the Bulldogs or the Wildcats? 6.5%. It could happen. Not likely, but possible.

And that is the ONLY way for us to get to Atlanta, should we lose to UGa a week from Saturday.

~ ~ ~

Folks talking about how good it would be, should we lose to UGa, for them to otherwise be undefeated so we "look better" to the CFP committee. Pfffft. Here's how we look better to those folks: go to Atlanta. Win in Atlanta. Be the SEC Champ. Not sitting at home hoping they like us.

Go Vols!

Yeah, my thumbs were not following my thoughts. If UGA loses to FU, beats UT, then they would have to lose one more assuming UT wins out. I'll go back and correct that.

However, your argument seems to be the ONLY way the Vols make the CFP is to make it to the SECCG undefeated and UGA losing to FU is a net good thing for UT. That seems short-sighted. Now we need every team we play to have highest profile possible. If the Vols face Alabama again, the odds are it turns out different. Our profile is better beating a 11-1 UGA instead of a 10-2 UGA that lost to a crippled FU.

The Vols have multiple paths. Of course the most sure is to win the SEC. But Alabama (2017) and UGA (2021) have proven that is not necessary. The Vols with an 12-1 or 11-1 record look better than 11-1 Michigan if UGA beats beats FU.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Yeah, my thumbs were not following my thoughts. If UGA loses to FU, beats UT, then they would have to lose one more assuming UT wins out. I'll go back and correct that.

However, your argument seems to be the ONLY way the Vols make the CFP is to make it to the SECCG undefeated and UGA losing to FU is a net good thing for UT. That seems short-sighted. Now we need every team we play to have highest profile possible. If the Vols face Alabama again, the odds are it turns out different. Our profile is better beating a 11-1 UGA instead of a 10-2 UGA that lost to a crippled FU.

The Vols have multiple paths. Of course the most sure is to win the SEC. But Alabama (2017) and UGA (2021) have proven that is not necessary. The Vols with an 12-1 or 11-1 record look better than 11-1 Michigan if UGA beats beats FU.

No, sorry if it sounded that way, wasn't what I intended. I recognize that we could get to the CFP without going through Atlanta.

I'm just saying, who on earth would want to? Who would willingly pass up a chance at the SEC crown in favor of the CFP crown, when we could instead take a shot at both?

It seems to me infinitely preferable to find a path to Atlanta, even a less-than-ideal path, over thinking of ways to sit at home and hope we get invited to the playoffs because we look nice because the team that beat us is super-pretty.

Go Vols!

 

[Behr]

The math is pretty straight-forward.

Either we beat UGa, or we lose to them. Let's call that a 50/50 chance.

So on the 50% side where UGa beats us, if they have already lost to Florida (which is what this thread's about), it comes down to them losing one other SEC game while we win out.

Chances they'll beat Mississippi State? 98.5%, according to ESPN FPI
Chance they'll beat Kentucky? 95%.

Chance they'll beat both those teams? 93.5%.

Which is a pretty sure thing, right? I mean, it is UGa vs Ky and Miss St, after all.

But that's still a 6.5% chance they WON'T win both those games.

And if they don't, the Vols go to Atlanta instead of them.

...

Sure, 6.5% isn't a lot to hang your hat on. But--and this is my point--it's better than nothing. It's a helluva lot better than nothing.

So we want Florida to beat UGa, to give us that second path to Atlanta. Not a 4-lane highway kind of path, more a rocky trail with brambles on both sides, but better than nothing.

Go Vols!

I get it, I really do. But 6.5%... it ain't enough.

I hope the gaters get embarrassed.
I hope we embarrass Georgia.
I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I get it, I really do. But 6.5%... it ain't enough.

I hope the gaters get embarrassed.
I hope we embarrass Georgia.
I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

Behr, there's a tree at the edge of a field, down at the end of a low stone wall. I need you to make it to that wall. There will be a stone at the base of the wall that has no business being in that field. I've left something for you under that stone.

Can you do this for me, Behr?

 

[GroverCleveland]

No, sorry if it sounded that way, wasn't what I intended. I recognize that we could get to the CFP without going through Atlanta.

I'm just saying, who on earth would want to? Who would willingly pass up a chance at the SEC crown in favor of the CFP crown, when we could instead take a shot at both?

It seems to me infinitely preferable to find a path to Atlanta, even a less-than-ideal path, over thinking of ways to sit at home and hope we get invited to the playoffs because we look nice because the team that beat us is super-pretty.

Go Vols!

No one wants that I don't think. I am certainly not arguing that is the preferred path and making it to the SECCG is the best path.

I am saying wishing for UGA to lose to a so-so Florida team does not help the Vols in anyway. Florida is already crippled.

So, look at this scenario:

TCU 13-0 or Ok St 12-1 BIG12 Champs
Michigan 12-1 B1G runner-up
Illinois 12-1 B1G Champ (I think they only have one loss?)
Oregon 12-1 PAC12 Champ
OSU 11-1
Alabama 12-1 SEC Champ
UT 12-1 SEC runner up.

UT is better having beaten an 11-1 vs. 10-2 Dawg team that lost to FL.

 

[perico]

I would much rather Florida win under normal circumstances, but it would probably be better for us if UGA remains unbeaten.

Screw it, I still hope the Gators kick their pound puppy ass. I respect our rivalry with the Gators. To me, the Bulldogs will always be the team of Lil Quincy Carter and Jasper Sunk.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I am saying wishing for UGA to lose to a so-so Florida team does not help the Vols in anyway.

Nope. We're just going to have to shake hands in disagreement. Because I want (although I know it means a lot to Behr) the Gators to whup the Dawgs tomorrow. I want that because it opens the door, even if just a crack, to a second path for us to get to Atlanta.

Kingdoms have been built on slimmer chances. I'll take that one and say 'thank you' for it.

Go Vols!

 

[Behr]

Behr, there's a tree at the edge of a field, down at the end of a low stone wall. I need you to make it to that wall. There will be a stone at the base of the wall that has no business being in that field. I've left something for you under that stone.

Can you do this for me, Behr?

Yes, but I can't hope the gatersuck wins unless it straight up no question helps the Vols. This is our year and it's time to get busy living or get busy dying, either way I don't GAS about the gaters.