For those always talking about recruiting rankings

[FranklinVFL]

Most of us knew UGA was gonna win handily

Yeah...I get that...figured I would be in bed by halftime...but geez.....did not expect THAT...and UGA could have put 7 more on the board at the end of the game.

 

[daj2576]

Lost by 58...more than their 5 year average.

TCU is the reason we need an expanded playoff.

They didn't deserve to be in the final four. They are the third most talented team in a conference whose talent level is not great, and whose two best teams are severely under performing. They also lost to a team that has the talent level below Mizzou, and didn't even drop in the final rankings.

With a month to prepare they beat a severely over valued Michigan team (a team whose whole resume is one quality win), on some plays that are anomalies.

While the transitive property doesn't always work, the late bowl season showed some reality. 1) Bama beat K-State, who beat TCU, exactly how two teams with significant talent disparities, would. 2) UGA and OSU went toe to toe, with almost identical rosters (that surprised people because Michigan was over valued for beating Ohio State soundly in a one game season)., And 3) UGA absolutely curb stomped a truly undeserving TCU team whose shine would've worn off long before a deeper playoff with quality teams that are undervalued because they might have lost a game or two against truly elite competition.

 

[peaygolf]

tcu would have finished 5th at best

Maybe.........maybe not. Depends on when they played each team.

If they had played LSU early in the year, they probably beat LSU. Play UT late in the year, they might have beaten UT. Might have lost to UF in game one. Who freaking knows. Last night proves one thing only.......UGA is by far better than everyone else......and I hate that !

 

[Majors]

TCU is the reason we need an expanded playoff.

They didn't deserve to be in the final four. They are the third most talented team in a conference whose talent level is not great, and whose two best teams are severely under performing. They also lost to a team that has the talent level below Mizzou, and didn't even drop in the final rankings.

With a month to prepare they beat a severely over valued Michigan team (a team whose whole resume is one quality win), on some plays that are anomalies.

While the transitive property doesn't always work, the late bowl season showed some reality. 1) Bama beat K-State, who beat TCU, exactly how two teams with significant talent disparities, would. 2) UGA and OSU went toe to toe, with almost identical rosters (that surprised people because Michigan was over valued for beating Ohio State soundly in a one game season)., And 3) UGA absolutely curb stomped a truly undeserving TCU team whose shine would've worn off long before a deeper playoff with quality teams that are undervalued because they might have lost a game or two against truly elite competition.

They started getting media hype when they were #8 and we lost to UGA. Too much media influence in the game by ESPN, Herbstreit and media commentators trying to talk sports.

 

[Majors]

Maybe.........maybe not. Depends on when they played each team.

If they had played LSU early in the year, they probably beat LSU. Play UT late in the year, they might have beaten UT. Might have lost to UF in game one. Who freaking knows. Last night proves one thing only.......UGA is by far better than everyone else......and I hate that !

Agree, the schedule would determine if they are 4 or 6, they are not better than 3rd in any division. They can win a game here and there but cant cycle up to play a SEC schedule of UGA and Bama on back to back weeks.

 

[DukeDaisySam]

Last night wasn't coaching. That is the true disparity between the SEC and the B12. Sure OSU came down to coaching. Georgia straight whipped those guys mentally and physically. There was not a single point in that game TCU looked like they belong there. Congrats to UGA but the NC was won when they beat OSU. The results of each game is proof

Agree to a point. But that was a well coached group of elite athletes last night.

 

[DukeDaisySam]

TCU would kill it in the SEC . They would be right their with Ala and LSU on the west side. They wouldn’t need ga or Florida for recruiting . Texas can fill the whole ****ing conference with players . Texas high school footbal is the largest in the country.

Hey Flash! Where you at? Come back and take your medicine. TCU would kill it in the SEC???? TCU got killed by the SEC.

 

[WaywardVol]

TCU is the reason we need an expanded playoff.

They didn't deserve to be in the final four. They are the third most talented team in a conference whose talent level is not great, and whose two best teams are severely under performing. They also lost to a team that has the talent level below Mizzou, and didn't even drop in the final rankings.

With a month to prepare they beat a severely over valued Michigan team (a team whose whole resume is one quality win), on some plays that are anomalies.

While the transitive property doesn't always work, the late bowl season showed some reality. 1) Bama beat K-State, who beat TCU, exactly how two teams with significant talent disparities, would. 2) UGA and OSU went toe to toe, with almost identical rosters (that surprised people because Michigan was over valued for beating Ohio State soundly in a one game season)., And 3) UGA absolutely curb stomped a truly undeserving TCU team whose shine would've worn off long before a deeper playoff with quality teams that are undervalued because they might have lost a game or two against truly elite competition.

Well Michigan definitely deserved to be there and TCU beat them. Still shocked Georgia struggled with Ohio State. When they were properly focused and motivated they were unbeatable.

 

[peaygolf]

Agree, the schedule would determine if they are 4 or 6, they are not better than 3rd in any division. They can win a game here and there but cant cycle up to play a SEC schedule of UGA and Bama on back to back weeks.

No $h!+ about UGA and Bama back/back. Who could? The Chiefs?
That happens to every school. How many time have we said as UT fans........"I wish the UF game was later in the year."

 

[Majors]

No $h!+ about UGA and Bama back/back. Who could? The Chiefs?
That happens to every school. How many time have we said as UT fans........"I wish the UF game was later in the year."

Just the way the SEC shapes up some years. Tennessee this year had to navigate, Florida, LSU and Bama. In name that is a built in playoff midseason. Tennessee went 3-0
TCU goes 1-2 at best.

 

[daj2576]

Well Michigan definitely deserved to be there and TCU beat them. Still shocked Georgia struggled with Ohio State. When they were properly focused and motivated they were unbeatable.

Georgia and OSU are very closely situated teams. The game proved it, with a month to prepare.

Beating Michigan whose only resume was beating Ohio State is also not a resume, when they lost to Kansas State who is not a talented team. Basing an opinion on Michigan on that game is like basing an opinion of UT on the SCAR game. It just doesn't paint enough of a picture, and that is a terrible analysis when there are many other data points.

The problem is, we value wins and losses over many other objective predictive metrics, but wins and losses against dissimilar opponents are meaningless. In TCUs case, it would be like trying to claim Vanderbilt deserves a shot in the playoff because they went undefeated against high school teams.

TCU and Michigan were creatures of how the media drives bad analytics, and we eat it up.

 

[sjt18]

Georgia and OSU are very closely situated teams. The game proved it, with a month to prepare.

Beating Michigan whose only resume was beating Ohio State is also not a resume, when they lost to Kansas State who is not a talented team.

And beat the snot out of OU who according to 247 has the 6th most talented roster in the country and beat Texas who has the 9th.

The best way to define this "debate" is that some of us recognize that the rankings are a trailing indicator. They report with some... and inconsistent... accuracy the work done by various programs and coaches. They are more "accurate" when predicting (duh) coaches that have recently succeeded at a very high level. They do MUCH worse as you get away from those handful of programs.

There are some here convinced that the recruiting rankings are a "leading indicator"... that if you simply get more 4/5* players as graded by a bunch of sports journalists then your roster will transform. You will suddenly start competing with Bama, UGA, et al. The proof actually shows that not to be true. The proof also shows that the recruiting sites do NOT find all of the elite players and call them blue chips. The overrated a LOT of guys and underrate a LOT of guys.

The formulas for rising into the top tier aren't many. The two most obvious seem to be to start taking recruits that Bama, UGA, and OSU prioritize... which no one has done with much success so far. Or... you can do your own evaluations and find some of those elite talents that escape notice or are undervalued. Chasing "stars" is how you get to where the roster was in Butch Jones' last two years.

The problem is, we value wins and losses over many other objective predictive metrics, but wins and losses against dissimilar opponents are meaningless. In TCUs case, it would be like trying to claim Vanderbilt deserves a shot in the playoff because they went undefeated against high school teams.

No. The facts do not bear that out.

TCU and Michigan were creatures of how the media drives bad analytics, and we eat it up.

TCU is a "creature" that got caught in a meat grinder because UGA was so embarrassed by the way they played vs OSU. It wasn't UGA's first time doing that this season. They laid eggs against Mizzou and UK too.

 

[MurphyVol]

I really think TCU would have been a five loss team in the SEC.. I don’t know the formula these playoff people use, but clearly the metrics don’t work lol

They were almost a 3- 4 lost team this year. Overtime with OK St, 1pt win over Baylor...

 

[daj2576]

And beat the snot out of OU who according to 247 has the 6th most talented roster in the country and beat Texas who has the 9th.

The best way to define this "debate" is that some of us recognize that the rankings are a trailing indicator. They report with some... and inconsistent... accuracy the work done by various programs and coaches. They are more "accurate" when predicting (duh) coaches that have recently succeeded at a very high level. They do MUCH worse as you get away from those handful of programs.

There are some here convinced that the recruiting rankings are a "leading indicator"... that if you simply get more 4/5* players as graded by a bunch of sports journalists then your roster will transform. You will suddenly start competing with Bama, UGA, et al.

No. The facts do not bear that out.


TCU is a "creature" that got caught in a meat grinder because UGA was so embarrassed by the way they played vs OSU. It wasn't UGA's first time doing that this season. They laid eggs against Mizzou and UK too.

And beat the snot out of OU who according to 247 has the 6th most talented roster in the country and beat Texas who has the 9th.

The best way to define this "debate" is that some of us recognize that the rankings are a trailing indicator. They report with some... and inconsistent... accuracy the work done by various programs and coaches. They are more "accurate" when predicting (duh) coaches that have recently succeeded at a very high level. They do MUCH worse as you get away from those handful of programs.

There are some here convinced that the recruiting rankings are a "leading indicator"... that if you simply get more 4/5* players as graded by a bunch of sports journalists then your roster will transform. You will suddenly start competing with Bama, UGA, et al.

No. The facts do not bear that out.


TCU is a "creature" that got caught in a meat grinder because UGA was so embarrassed by the way they played vs OSU. It wasn't UGA's first time doing that this season. They laid eggs against Mizzou and UK too.

Okay, you live in a world where last night was a surprise and an aww shucks moment. I live in a world where last night is not particularly surprising because talent is actually the strongest single predictor. 70% or so in regular season games, and 90% or so in championship games.

The reason TCU got a shot is because, as I've said, they are the third most talented team in a unspectacular conference related to talent, when the two most talented teams are under performing together to generational levels.

Youre using indictive reasoning.

 

[BigALWiLson]

Well Michigan definitely deserved to be there and TCU beat them. Still shocked Georgia struggled with Ohio State. When they were properly focused and motivated they were unbeatable.

The measure you are forgetting is OSU has as much talent as UGA. They are loaded also. Day did his team no favors at the end of that contest.

 

[MurphyVol]

Well Michigan definitely deserved to be there and TCU beat them. Still shocked Georgia struggled with Ohio State. When they were properly focused and motivated they were unbeatable.

Yeah Ohio St could have easily won that game....say if Harrison doesn't get injured, or put the kicker in the better spot. Also remember that Mizzou probably beats UGA if the ref hadn't swallowed his whistle on an obvious false start. Football is weird

 

[sjt18]

Okay, you live in a world where last night was a surprise and an aww shucks moment.

Starting the response off with a straw man?

I live in a world where last night is not particularly surprising because talent is actually the strongest single predictor. 70% or so in regular season games, and 90% or so in championship games.

Last night was perhaps a surprise only in that the final score was that lopsided. TCU was not the worst nor the least talented team UGA faced this year. They beat their previous high scoring total by 10 points.

Talent DOES win a lot of games. That's not in dispute. What is in dispute is the claim that the recruiting sites are as accurate as some believe in correctly rating players. It is a joke. They don't even pretend to do it and some people believe they DO do it. They admit that they cannot objectively and consistently rate talent when they limit the number of 4/5* ratings they hand out. That is confirmed when so many of their 4* and sometimes 5* are badly outperformed by lower rated players.

If you see a bunch of kids running around on a playground, it usually isn't all that hard to pick 2 or 3 that are the "fastest". It helps a lot when the track coach walks up and says, "Yep, those the fastest kids I've invited them to be on the track team." From there, it gets a lot more difficult to judge. Some are obviously slow but there will be a pretty significant group that you can't know until they actually line up and race each other.

The reason TCU got a shot is because, as I've said, they are the third most talented team in a unspectacular conference related to talent, when the two most talented teams are under performing together to generational levels.

Youre using indictive reasoning.

No. And I wouldn't even claim that TCU is a great team. I don't think they would beat LSU, Bama, or UT. But they're not the trash you claim either. You're using "convenient" reasoning... that parses out things that do not line up with your predetermined conclusion.

UT according to 247 had the #19 roster in '22. They beat Bama #1, Clemson #5, LSU #8, and UF #14. According to 247, UK's talent with 738.69 points was closer to UT at 766.29 than UT was to UF at 842.54. You cannot throw results like that and TCU's wins over Texas, OU, and Michigan out just because they do not fit your narrative.

 

[Clad in Big Orange]

The best chance to get a national title is to purchase the best roster. Now it’s mostly legal for anyone to do so. Watch out for Colorado.

 

[perico]

TCU is the reason we need an expanded playoff.

They didn't deserve to be in the final four. They are the third most talented team in a conference whose talent level is not great, and whose two best teams are severely under performing. They also lost to a team that has the talent level below Mizzou, and didn't even drop in the final rankings.

With a month to prepare they beat a severely over valued Michigan team (a team whose whole resume is one quality win), on some plays that are anomalies.

While the transitive property doesn't always work, the late bowl season showed some reality. 1) Bama beat K-State, who beat TCU, exactly how two teams with significant talent disparities, would. 2) UGA and OSU went toe to toe, with almost identical rosters (that surprised people because Michigan was over valued for beating Ohio State soundly in a one game season)., And 3) UGA absolutely curb stomped a truly undeserving TCU team whose shine would've worn off long before a deeper playoff with quality teams that are undervalued because they might have lost a game or two against truly elite competition.

OSU/UGA really doesn’t show anymore than OSU/UM or UM/TCU. Of course OSU is one of the most talented teams in the country, but they looked pedestrian the entire 2nd half of the season against powerhouses like Northwestern. They would leave CJ Stroud in games and throw the ball when it was out of reach to pad his stats.

Look at Texas A&M, they are one of the 5 most talented teams in the country and they always crap the bed. They are talented enough that they can knock off Bama last year or LSU this year, but just because they have the talent to beat anyone doesn’t mean they are one of the best teams in America.

OSU had UGA on the ropes and a better team would have put them away. Same thing with Missouri. They are a terrible team, but for 3 1/2 quarters were beating UGA. OSU had the talent that Missouri lacked, but if they were one of the Top 2 teams they should’ve been good enough to finish them off instead of folding.

 

[sjt18]

The measure you are forgetting is OSU has as much talent as UGA. They are loaded also. Day did his team no favors at the end of that contest.

OSU, Bama, and UGA are the 3 most talented teams in the country... and they would be regardless of what the recruiting sites said.

The same journalists who say that those are the top 3 teams... say that Texas A&M is #4.... Texas is #6... OU is #9... ND is #10... Miami is #12... UF is #14... Auburn is #18... Stanford is #23... Nebraska is #24.

 

[BigALWiLson]

OSU, Bama, and UGA are the 3 most talented teams in the country... and they would be regardless of what the recruiting sites said.

The same journalists who say that those are the top 3 teams... say that Texas A&M is #4.... Texas is #6... OU is #9... ND is #10... Miami is #12... UF is #14... Auburn is #18... Stanford is #23... Nebraska is #24.

There is a difference in ranking kids talent levels and what those teams put on the field. Development is key and has been forever. Most are seeing this happen right in front of us here at Tennessee. Kids are being developed. Yes you need talent but you also need people to take you to the next level. I'm in toatl agreement that many 3s out play 4s and 5s. It does happen. I don't put stock into services as much as I do the coaches recruiting those players.

 

[BigALWiLson]

In OSU's case I still believe gameday coaching cost them.

 

[sjt18]

Tulane makes another excellent proof against the narrative. There are "flukes" in football but their win over USC wasn't one. They were competitive all game long and won it. If the rankings are as accurate as some believe then the 75th most talented team (out of 131) should NEVER beat #11. The yardage was 539 Tulane to 594 USC... with the mighty "Green Wave" rolling up over 300 yds on the ground.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

Agree to a point. But that was a well coached group of elite athletes last night.

And the coaches recruited the players. The narrative that Kirby can't coach and that we are somehow going to "out-coach" him are as false as the tooth fairy rumors.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

In OSU's case I still believe gameday coaching cost them.

That hit on Harrison cost them. That was a score until he was clearly and obviously targeted. Then when he couldn't return, they were done. Georgia was certainly on the ropes until that point.