The so-called 5-stars, which I want a lot of too, are the rating services predictions of who will be a 1st round draft pick in that class. That’s what they say. I saw a 5-year study by Elevens Warriors which revealed Rivals as the best at making that prediction, ESPN and 247 were close behind, and at the time Scout was in last place. The point is, the service doing it the best, rivals, was only right 20% of the time. Nobody else did that good.
When we say we want 5-stars we can’t fall into the trap of letting the services be the identifiers for those 5-stars (a.k.a., first round draft picks) because that’s what we want, first round draft picks, and we want a lot or at least maybe 2-3 or so in every class, if possible. Mississippi State, in the 2019 draft held in Nashville, had 3 guys picked in the 1st round from their nationally ranked #1 defense. One was a 5-star and the other two were Juco 3-stars. The top WR from LSU’s run this past year was a 2-star who went in the 1st round. Burrow was by composite a low 4-star and rivals had him as a mid 3-star yet he went #1 overall in the draft.
Derek Barnett was our last 1st round draft pick and he was a low 4-star. We’ve had Malone, McKenzie, Phillips, and maybe another or so, but they didn’t turn out to be 1st round draft picks. In fact, 80% of 5-stars are not 1st round draft picks. The recruiting services get that wrong that often. The blue-chip ratio is a bit better. The blue-chip ratio measures the percentage of your roster that is made up of 4 and 5 stars and the target is 50% or higher. So while 80% of 5-stars don’t make the 1st round, 60% do get drafted somewhere in the 7 rounds. 25% of 4-stars get drafted. So that’s around 20 5-stars per year that get drafted at all and around 80 4-stars. The rest are 3-stars, 2-stars, and not-ranked, and there’s around 150 of this group of non-blue chip players in that group.
To be successful we first need to have good coaches, good talent evaluators (hopefully better than the services), good recruiters, good developers, and good game managers. Then we need to build a top flight offense, defense, and special teams unit. Mississippi State’s #1 ranked defense went to waste in 2018 because their offense sucked. That defense though, with a new coordinator, Bob Shoop, was incredible.
Henry To’o To’o wasn’t identified by the recruiting services as a 5-star but if he performs well in the upcoming seasons I think he has a good shot at being a 1st round draft pick. Trey Smith may be hindered by his medical issue but he’s always had 1st round potential and of course he was a 5-star. He would have been, and maybe still will be, one of the 20%. jmo.
Don’t get me wrong. I like the idea of getting a lot of 5-stars because I want to win the recruiting rankings but I’d rather have some 1st round draft picks and a lot of subsequent round draft picks, and in this matter, all the evidence suggests we’ll probably be a lot better off if we trust Pruitt and his staff to identify those guys instead of putting our faith in Rivals, ESPN, or 247. jmo.