If he stays I bet he cries during the presser and spins some recycled crap about "having a dream" about it. And by "recycled crap" I meant the Urban Meyer speech..... before anyone takes offense.
If he stays, he's a fool, and if VU allows him to fleece them for a bigger deal, they're a fool too.
If he is honest with himself, he has to understand that he has - in the short time he's been there - already taken Vanderbilt as far as he can hope to. Can ANYONE believe that he could recruit and keep in school enough 4 and 5 star players to be an elite SEC team? Getting from 2 or 3 wins to 8 or 9 - in a lot of ways - is easier that getting from 8-9 to 11 or 12. That's what it takes to be at the top in this league.
Further, allowing his name to get whirled around on the coaching search carousel just gives competing coaches recruiting fuel and softens the fan base.
He will have the opportunity to win more games, win bigger games, have a more storied career and make a lot more money if he goes to Penn State. That's not a dig at VU. That's a fact.
The window of opportunity will not stay open forever.
As for VU, if they up him, what's the ransom going to be next year? They can't allow him to play them like that over and over. He's either going to continue to win enough that someone will outbid them soon enough, or he's going to settle back down. If that happens, then they'll be the ones overpaying for what they are getting.