From 90% to 29%

#26
#26
CSpindizzy said:
Both consumer confidence and consumer spending are driven by household polls. If we prefer consumer spending let's look at the numbers. It appears spending for housing and food is higher which is expected but spending for 'luxury' type items is much lower. So less clothes, gadgets, additional education, etc. spending going on. Looks to me as if that says little extra money laying around the house and it goes straight to necessities. Either one comes to the same conclusion.
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Any money should go to necessities first, logical. But I haven't noticed people lacking the money for cable, cell phone, vacation, etc...
 
#27
#27
Doesn't mean they aren't suffering more "hardships" than previously. They could have downgraded their cable and cell phone plans. They may be going to Panama City as opposed to the Bahamas.
 
#28
#28
I think the U.S. will still be in Iraq when Bush leaves office and his approval rating will be the lowest in history. I also think most of the incumbent Republicans will be voted out of office in Congress.
 
#29
#29
oklavol said:
I think the U.S. will still be in Iraq when Bush leaves office and his approval rating will be the lowest in history. I also think most of the incumbent Republicans will be voted out of office in Congress.
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If this is the case, then the incumbent Dems are in trouble as well. Congress is less approved than the POTUS. Dems control thus there is high disapproval of them as well - much do to Iraq. If they haven't done something by Nov 08 I'd say it's bleak for them as well.
 
#30
#30
Part of that disapproval comes from Democrats as well. As long as they still show up to vote for Hillary it doesn't matter. There is more of an incentive for Dems to suck it up and actually try to control 2 of 3 branches.
 
#31
#31
CSpindizzy said:
Doesn't mean they aren't suffering more "hardships" than previously. They could have downgraded their cable and cell phone plans. They may be going to Panama City as opposed to the Bahamas.
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Maybe so, but I stick with my overall point. If you can't make good in this economy you aren't trying very hard. Of course there are some people with some extreme situations, but these people are in the extreme minority.
 
#32
#32
I guess several polling companies have precision ability to hit every corner of the "extreme minority" across the country.
 
#33
#33
CSpindizzy said:
Part of that disapproval comes from Democrats as well. As long as they still show up to vote for Hillary it doesn't matter. There is more of an incentive for Dems to suck it up and actually try to control 2 of 3 branches.
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Right. The dems manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in three of the last four elections and when they do win one, they let a lame duck president defeat them twice on major dem issues.

What are you smoking?
 
#34
#34
CSpindizzy said:
I guess several polling companies have precision ability to hit every corner of the "extreme minority" across the country.
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I guess they do. What were the poll numbers again on the question of "Can a person make a good living in this economy with reasonable effort?"
 
#35
#35
CSpindizzy said:
Part of that disapproval comes from Democrats as well. As long as they still show up to vote for Hillary it doesn't matter. There is more of an incentive for Dems to suck it up and actually try to control 2 of 3 branches.
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Why would there be less incentive for Republicans to suck it up than there would be for Democrats?
 
#36
#36
GAVol said:
Why would there be less incentive for Republicans to suck it up than there would be for Democrats?
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Agreed - Congressional approval has declined since the Dems took over. Presumably they took over due to swing voters ousting Reps for Dems. Given that disappointment now seems greater than prior and Oklavols' assumption that we will still be in Iraq in Nov 08, I see no reason for those swing voters to be more pro-dem than pro-rep. In effect, they will have proof that the elected Dems were ineffective.
 
#37
#37
GAVol said:
Why would there be less incentive for Republicans to suck it up than there would be for Democrats?
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Iraq. WOT. Getting back the WH which they still believe Gore is President. Obviously motivation is lacking within the GOP. Many stayed home thus costing control of Congress. Many are upset with not only the handling of Iraq but the way Bush and many others handled the immigration bill. Motivation is down within the GOP and up with the Dems.
 
#38
#38
volinbham said:
Agreed - Congressional approval has declined since the Dems took over. Presumably they took over due to swing voters ousting Reps for Dems. Given that disappointment now seems greater than prior and Oklavols' assumption that we will still be in Iraq in Nov 08, I see no reason for those swing voters to be more pro-dem than pro-rep. In effect, they will have proof that the elected Dems were ineffective.
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You're assuming the disillusionment is all focused on the Dems. When party is broken down the GOP takes as much a hit if not greater within Congressional ratings. Within the Dems who are disillusioned, many see past this and look for the larger prize which is the WH.
 
#39
#39
CSpindizzy said:
You're assuming the disillusionment is all focused on the Dems. When party is broken down the GOP takes as much a hit if not greater within Congressional ratings. Within the Dems who are disillusioned, many see past this and look for the larger prize which is the WH.
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I am not assuming it's all focused on the Dems. Merely questioning the logic that the scenario presented is better for the Dems than Reps. Could be equal or could even be better for the Reps.
 
#41
#41
CSpindizzy said:
How do you figure?
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I think I explained these possible scenarios but here it is in a nutshell (I'm also speaking Congress vs. POTUS).

I assume that hard core followers on each side aren't ready to dump their party for the other so we are once again down to the moderates and swings.

Since the Congressional shift appeared to be driven by this very group (and disapproval of the Rep led Congress) they could very well be disillusioned with their choice to make the switch. The Dem led Congress has dropped even further in the polls and there is dissatisfaction with both parties.

Accordingly, I don't see why a mod/swing voter would say give me more of this. The could just as likely say they will go for whichever individual candidates strike them (Dem or Rep) or say I don't want to give even more power to the party that has let me down.

In short, I think it will be much more about individual candidates than party since both sides have disappointed.
 
#42
#42
volinbham said:
In short, I think it will be much more about individual candidates than party since both sides have disappointed.
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I think you are probably right about that. At this point, Reid/Pelosi have not proven much other than an ability to spout rhetoric and start investigations. I don't think the Deomcratic base is really that much happier than the Republican base other than the fact that they at least have a majority right now.
 
#43
#43
The poll of Congress before the election was based on those in the GOP being loyal. With those dropping off due to control switching and nothing done to bring Dems disillusioned from before the election, all this appears to be is the Republicans pre-election dropping off. The Dem numbers look to be the same. And since those same numbers gave us a Dem COngress, I'd say they're better off.

Add to the fact polls are drifting even more towards Dem issues, you have more leaning in their favor. Even Republicans are drifting away from Iraq.

Republicans are more disillusioned with their own party than with anything else. You already had deterioration on Iraq. Add the immigration issue, the morale is in decline.

Dems have more to gain than Republicans. Republicans have a lot to lose but they need someone worth inspiring them on that and get them to turn out. If they are counting on the scare tactic of "President Rodham Clinton" as their only salvation, they're in trouble. Scaring America didn't work in 2006 and it probably won't in 2008.
 
#44
#44
You could be right but I would say the Rep base will also rally (not be so quick to toss their own out) given the transition of power they've already seen.

Which force has more cohesion and the nature of the candidates in swing districts will be the big factors and I don't see compelling evidence to make a prediction one way or the other at this point.

On the polling data, I thought failure to follow through on pre-election promises vis-a-vis Iraq is touted as the biggest factor - doesn't that suggest Dems are losing support among their base as well?
 
#46
#46
volinbham said:
You could be right but I would say the Rep base will also rally (not be so quick to toss their own out) given the transition of power they've already seen.

Which force has more cohesion and the nature of the candidates in swing districts will be the big factors and I don't see compelling evidence to make a prediction one way or the other at this point.

On the polling data, I thought failure to follow through on pre-election promises vis-a-vis Iraq is touted as the biggest factor - doesn't that suggest Dems are losing support among their base as well?
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Considering Congress cannot really do anything regarding withdrawal I don't think that was expected from a bulk of their supporters. With a change in the White House I think there is more motivation from the Dems. If that was such an issue would it not make sense to turn out en masse to change the seat that has more control over that?
 
#48
#48
volinbham said:
Here's one poll (with the full findings linked) that shows the drops in approval have been greater for Dems than for Reps both in Congress and as viewed from a leadership perspective vs. Bushie

ABC News: Congress' Approval Ratings Sinking Fast
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But what this does not show is who the drop-offs are. This still shows the Dems with higher numbers than Bush and than the GOP had when they were in charge. As long as they are still in the 40's (10 points higher than the GOP when they lost Congress) I don't see some huge disillusionment coming from the left.
 
#49
#49
CSpindizzy said:
Considering Congress cannot really do anything regarding withdrawal I don't think that was expected from a bulk of their supporters. With a change in the White House I think there is more motivation from the Dems. If that was such an issue would it not make sense to turn out en masse to change the seat that has more control over that?
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Congress can withdraw funding but they didn't have the votes.

Also, we've already dealt w/perceptions v. reality in this thread. The polling data (at least that which I posted) shows Dems dropping in approval faster than Reps (overall and among their own base). Regardless of their real ability to change the war, the perception is what drives the polls and likely votes.

I'll say again - I don't see strong enough evidence that any side has the real upper hand. People are pissed and rightly so. Hillary has the inside track for POTUS but what happens to Congress is up in the air IMHO.
 
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