From 90% to 29%

[BigPapaVol]

the presidential race is only about the parties to those already in the fold. to those truly undecided, it's more about the personalities, circumstances and proposed policies. All this dem vs rep issue leaning is immaterial.

 

[BigPapaVol]

But yet both sides pay pollsters big bucks. What do you think made Rove successful? What do you think drives the messages of those running for President now?

why was kerry not successful even though he had access to similar polling data?

could it be that some of the polling data is flat wrong?

 

[CSpindizzy]

Congress can withdraw funding but they didn't have the votes.

Also, we've already dealt w/perceptions v. reality in this thread. The polling data (at least that which I posted) shows Dems dropping in approval faster than Reps (overall and among their own base). Regardless of their real ability to change the war, the perception is what drives the polls and likely votes.

I'll say again - I don't see strong enough evidence that any side has the real upper hand. People are pissed and rightly so. Hillary has the inside track for POTUS but what happens to Congress is up in the air IMHO.

Where in the poll shows a drop from within their own base?

 

[CSpindizzy]

why was kerry not successful even though he had access to similar polling data?

could it be that some of the polling data is flat wrong?

He was not successful because he was a lousy candidate. The bad thing about it is that a far left Massachusetts liberal still managed to get almost 50% of the votes. That should tell you something right there. Polling data and his access had nothing to do with his failure.

 

[MG1968]

Where in the poll shows a drop from within their own base?

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 29-June 1, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults, including an oversample of African-Americans for a total of 284 black respondents. The results have a three-point error margin.

The shift away from the Democrats in Congress has occurred on two levels. In terms of their overall approval rating, the damage is almost entirely among people who strongly oppose the war in Iraq. In this group 69 percent approved of the Democrats in April, but just 54 percent still approve now -- a likely effect of the Democrats' failure to push a withdrawal timetable through Congress.

those would be considered "the base" of Democrat supporters.

edit: and when you consider the "nutroots" at MoveOn.org, DailyKos and DemUnderground are screaming that the Democrats haven't ended the war yet, the base further erodes. Cindy Sheehan is threatening to run against Pelosi in 2008 because Pelosi hasn't done more to force a withdrawal from Iraq.

If the Iraq war was the "referendum" for last year's election results, then the democrats have been a colossal failure thus far.

 

[CSpindizzy]

They adjust for oversample and you're assuming all of those who oppose the war are Dem? And all African Americans are as well?

 

[WA_Vol]

If this is the case, then the incumbent Dems are in trouble as well. Congress is less approved than the POTUS. Dems control thus there is high disapproval of them as well - much do to Iraq. If they haven't done something by Nov 08 I'd say it's bleak for them as well.

You must have had trouble understanding the 06 election results. I'm expecting more of the same in 08. The country's on basicly the same course (Iraq) that the majority disapprove of.

 

[BigPapaVol]

He was not successful because he was a lousy candidate. The bad thing about it is that a far left Massachusetts liberal still managed to get almost 50% of the votes. That should tell you something right there. Polling data and his access had nothing to do with his failure.

you mean Rove might actually be successful because of the candidate to whom he hitched his wagon or because of lack of competition from the other side. that's crazy talk. polls have to be at the root of his success. polls are a panacea and should always be taken at face value.

 

[MG1968]

They adjust for oversample and you're assuming all of those who oppose the war are Dem? And all African Americans are as well?

I've edited my post. and no, I don't assume that all those who oppose the war are democrats nor do I assume that all blacks are democrats (just 90% or so are). But the base is falling away from the Reid/Pelosi led Congress. If the polls don't show it directly, MoveON, HuffPo, Kos, and others definitely do.

 

[CSpindizzy]

Polling was successfully used by him and others to essentially craft the candidate and the message to what people want to hear. Research focus groups as a good example. Rove has always been crafty at taking numbers and steering agendas to fit those numbers.

Kerry was just a lousy candidate. Yes he had access to polls but his lack of organization, agenda, etc. was not able to utilize the message. Add to the fact that more people then did not want to change horses in midstream, you got the said results.

No matter what you say, polls drive politics. No matter what you think their worth is, consultants will still make the big bucks running them and campaigns will still pay for them. Even Fortune 500 companies use polling, even market research as polling, to gauge their own futures.

 

[CSpindizzy]

I've edited my post. and no, I don't assume that all those who oppose the war are democrats nor do I assume that all blacks are democrats (just 90% or so are). But the base is falling away from the Reid/Pelosi led Congress. If the polls don't show it directly, MoveON, HuffPo, Kos, and others definitely do.

Again a small amount of dissatisfaction still nowhere near the level it was with the previous GOP controlled Congress does not spell doom and gloom. With the prospects of gaining the White House, the body that CAN get their agenda on Iraq accomplished, the Dems are more inclined to stay close to loyalty and vote in '08.

Name something(s) the GOP has to inspire them to turn out...and don't name Hillary. They've been let down on immigration, border security, Iraq, controlling spending....what is to motivate them?

 

[volinbham]

Here ya go:

A third of liberal Democrats, who constitute the party's base, approve of the job Congress is doing; 58% disapprove, the poll found.

That's a dramatic change from January, when a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that 43% of liberal Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing and 36% disapproved.

Approval of Congress lowest in a decade - Los Angeles Times

 

[MG1968]

there's nothing left to motivate the GOP base short of another catastrophic terrorist attack on US soil, and that could go either way.

 

[CSpindizzy]

If the Iraq war was the "referendum" for last year's election results, then the democrats have been a colossal failure thus far.

I don't agree. Perhaps many Americans just thought having Dems in Congress that the previous rubber stamp on Iraq would be removed. Perhaps many thought the prospects of a Dem Congress would force Bush to not feel himself in complete authority on Iraq. Seeing that after the election he backed down and more or less admitted issues and changed strategy I'd say the message was received and response taken.

Had the Dems not won Congress Rummy would still be there and the surge probably would not happen or would be much later.

 

[BigPapaVol]

there's nothing left to motivate the GOP base short of another catastrophic terrorist attack on US soil, and that could go either way.

I think Hillary motivates the GOP base

 

[MG1968]

I think Hillary motivates the GOP base

the thought of another Clinton in the White House is about as appealing to the right as it is the left. Hillary motivates the 45% that make up the GOP base, but if it ends up being Giuliani vs. Hillary, then who has the advantage?

 

[BigPapaVol]

I think Giuliani because he appeals to the swing group more than Hillary does, but we hold elections to actually find out.

 

[CSpindizzy]

Here ya go:



Approval of Congress lowest in a decade - Los Angeles Times

But again, there is nothing showing how Dems feel about Dems in Congress. Who is to say that this feeling isn't for Congress as a whole? I've seen three internal polls from clients of ours that does not spell the doom and gloom you think is going on. The numbers have dropped yes but we're not talking about mass defections. If anything immigration really put a hurting on both sides.

 

[BigPapaVol]

But again, there is nothing showing how Dems feel about Dems in Congress. Who is to say that this feeling isn't for Congress as a whole? I've seen three internal polls from clients of ours that does not spell the doom and gloom you think is going on. The numbers have dropped yes but we're not talking about mass defections. If anything immigration really put a hurting on both sides.

GOP doesn't need mass defections to regain the upper hand, just as the Dems didn't in 06

 

[volinbham]

But again, there is nothing showing how Dems feel about Dems in Congress. Who is to say that this feeling isn't for Congress as a whole? I've seen three internal polls from clients of ours that does not spell the doom and gloom you think is going on. The numbers have dropped yes but we're not talking about mass defections. If anything immigration really put a hurting on both sides.

Doom and gloom was never mentioned - just saying Dems and Reps both are disliked.

 

[CSpindizzy]

GOP doesn't need mass defections to regain the upper hand, just as the Dems didn't in 06

Who said anything about mass defections? We're talking about motivation especially from the base to show up and vote. If the base is not motivated you see key losses. With most districts leaning GOP in 2006, it was a lack of motivation that caused many to turn. Ask the religious conservative groups. They did not show up en masse in 2006 and you see the results. Seeing how the base within the GOP is demoralized over Iraq and immigration, there's not much motivation for a turnout in 2008.

 

[BigPapaVol]

Who said anything about mass defections? We're talking about motivation especially from the base to show up and vote. If the base is not motivated you see key losses. With most districts leaning GOP in 2006, it was a lack of motivation that caused many to turn. Ask the religious conservative groups. They did not show up en masse in 2006 and you see the results. Seeing how the base within the GOP is demoralized over Iraq and immigration, there's not much motivation for a turnout in 2008.

you clearly made the point that dems weren't defecting in mass in your recent poll figures and I made the point that it won't take mass defections to swing the vote.

 

[CSpindizzy]

I said I was not talking about mass defections and I was referring to them being motivated as far as a base. I was not talking about swing votes. The conversation was about both sides being motivated to show up not those switching sides.

 

[BigPapaVol]

But again, there is nothing showing how Dems feel about Dems in Congress. Who is to say that this feeling isn't for Congress as a whole? I've seen three internal polls from clients of ours that does not spell the doom and gloom you think is going on. The numbers have dropped yes but we're not talking about mass defections. If anything immigration really put a hurting on both sides.

how is this not about the lack of dem mass defections

 

[CSpindizzy]

But we're not talking about mass defections....read the sentence. Numbers dropping does not mean the Dems are turning into Republicans. This is about a motivation issue and approval of their own side. Look at those same polls. People overwhelmingly said the Dem controlled Congress was better off handling even some core GOP issues.