Getting to play Alabama (if we beat them) could be a great thing. Oklahoma and Alabama are currently #26 and #27 in the NET and at this point our best shots at securing a NET top 25 win if both or either could move up a few spots (assuming we don't upset South Carolina in either of those games). Right now we only have 3 NET top 50 wins, so beating TAMU plus Alabama would get us up to 5.
Creme currently has us a #10 seed. Our resume, based on what the committee looks at (I don't see record against NET top 25, top 50, and top 100 on the NCAA website, though that is something they mentioned they looked at during the last top 16 seed reveal...):
- Availability of talent (injured or unavailable players): Rickea out for 4 of our losses
- Bad losses: no losses outside the NET top 50; all losses to NCAA tournament teams
- Common opponents: I suppose this is about seed placement and direct comparisons with another team
- Competitive in losses: 7 out of 10 losses by double figures
- Conference record: looking like 10-6 (should be better than most bubble teams)
- Early competition versus late competition: slightly better late
- Head-to-head outcomes: our record against bubble teams (per Creme's latest Bracketology): 4-1; our record against teams on the 7-10 seed lines: 2-4 (could improve to 3-4 with a win over Alabama)
- NET ranking: #37 (better than all the other bubble teams except Maryland, Penn St., and Washington St., about on par with the teams on the 8-9 seed line)
- Non-conference record: 7-5
- Overall record: 16-10 (likely 17-11, maybe 18-12 after the SEC tournament)
- Regional Advisory Committee region rankings: not sure what this is
- Significant wins: #26 Oklahoma, hopefully #27 Alabama and #39 TAMU (Mississippi State has dropped to #41)
- Strength of conference: #3 (behind Pac-12 and Big-12, which hurts against bubble teams like Washington St. and Iowa St., but helps against all those Big 10 bubble teams)
- Strength of schedule: #19 (likely to continue to go up)
The biggest things in our favor seem to be that we had Rickea out for almost all of our non-conference losses, we don't have any bad losses, our conference record is solid, our record is pretty good against other teams hovering around the bubble, the strength of the SEC, and our SOS. Not so good are all the double-digit losses, our overall record, and the lack of significant wins.
To move up from a #10 seed all the way up to a #7 will take some work and some luck, but it's not impossible. Certainly beating TAMU and Alabama would
really help, as would upsetting USC or even playing them within single digits in one or both games. Looking at the current #7 seeds, we have the H2H against Oklahoma but not Florida State. Our NET is better than Florida State but worse than Oklahoma, Duke, and Michigan State. Duke has some bad losses (Davidson, Clemson) but is coming off two big wins (Syracuse, NC State) and could be peaking at the right time. Michigan State's resume is similar to ours in terms of no bad losses but no big wins (only 2 top 50 wins), but their SOS (and conference SOS) is way worse.